semi-weird 200/400 bellagio hand

[bicyclekick]

Decent enough 200/400 full table game. 5 hours deap in the session and I'm up quite a bit and have about as good of an image as possible. I've done 2 overaggressive things that have gotten shown down but that's ok, it keeps them on their tows. I've been playing pretty tight...not like running it over...so I don't have the 'wild' image I sometimse carry with me.

A kinda weak tight local limps ep, a semi-loose passive preflop(like i've seen her open limp 87s lmp) aggressive postflop girl limps, a meh player limps, I limp K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the co, button is a losing player in the game folds, good player who I don't know much about but a friend told me is a very solid semi-weird player raises out of the sb, bb calls, we all call. This isn't standard. Most pots are shorthanded and not TOO much limping.

Flop K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB bets, folds to the girl who raises, I 3 bet, sb calls, girl calls.

Turn 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Checked to me. I?

/edit sorry I originally had the 8 when I meant the 7 of spades.

[Paluka]

My first instinct is that I'd take a free card here. I really don't want to fold if I get checkraised, but I don't want to have to put 3 bets in to show this one down either. On the other hand, I don't have a spade and I hate giving free cards. This is a tough spot, if I thought I could comfortably fold to a checkraise I would bet.

[mike l.]

you have top pair. you bet and you get to showdown unless they start getting uber crazy on you (a c/r does not count as uber crazy). checking here against two players is bad limit hold em.

[poker1O1]

I would check. girl could be raising with draw, and SB has represented some kind of hand, and if marginal, I would suspect would try to cap the flop to push out the girl.

[DcifrThs]

i bet the turn.

if checkraised by the sb id be very surprised but lets see. the sb is supposedly solid and plays wierd according to a 2nd hand source.

solid raises the sb vs. 3 limpers. what range here? clearly the normal ones but also probably hands like T9s etc. if he's in the mood [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

continuation bet on the flop and calling two cold after a semiloose passive but agro girl 3 bets. now if you know this girl is agro, does the sb? if so id be more likely to bet and call downa c/r.

it doesn't look like the bb has AK at all, id vastly discount that at this point. same w/ KQs. KK/JJ would proabably bet this turn and AsAx might checkraise while AA nos apde would bet.

im having a tough time narrowing down a hand here, especially one that you beat if the sb decides to continue. QQs maybe if sb knows you know girl is agro postflop. but id think that might bet the turn...but could also c'r it sometimes.

if you bet the turn and are wrong (a hand you beat w/ a draw is out) you cost yourself the equity loss on that street and the pot if the draw card hits and it woulda folded to a bet.

if you are correct that your hand is best and bet and get c'red you could make a large mistake if ahead. you could also have outs, but it would be looking very very bad for you if you got c'r here.

the probly is, you can't revolve your strategy entirely around teh sb. the 3rd player in this pot pushes up the more attractive probabilities in terms of hand ranges imo.

id bet and see what happens. im really not normally a fan of that line but i htink its good here. it seems this is a spot where in the long run you have a very difficult to figure out amount of expectation b/c it depends so highly on information you dont yet have (their actions after you bet/check)...i.e. its a spot where the change in expectation is large iwth respect to changes in assumptions and ex ante actions.

in these spots, taking an aggressive line tends to increase expectation along with volatility. therefore, id go with a bet here (again) and see what develops. id really want to see a showdown here b/c even at these limits, peoples' thought processes never cease to amaze me.

Barron

[Boris]

Check and it's not close. Your hand sucks for this situation. You don't want to give big action post flop in a multiway pot with top pair no kicker against good players. Get to the showdown as cheaply as possible.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Check and it's not close. Your hand sucks for this situation. You don't want to give big action post flop in a multiway pot with top pair no kicker against good players. Get to the showdown as cheaply as possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

normally id agree...but the postflop agro girl AND the sb checked to bk after he showed NO pf agression. its a tough spot exactly because you want to get to the showdown but also because you want to charge draws and collect value from worse hands.

so what do their checks mean? especially given a spade hit the turn.

Barron

[mike l.]

"so what do their checks mean?"

it means for one that their hands are too weak to bet-3 bet. checking here is criminal. the pot is big and that card is scary. make them pay to continue. KT is too often the best hand here.

[Boris]

If BK bets here he is hoping bb has QQ or As-Qs (much less likely) AND the girl has a jack. Other than that he is screwed and will most likely get check-raised.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
If BK bets here he is hoping bb has QQ or As-Qs (much less likely) AND the girl has a jack. Other than that he is screwed and will most likely get check-raised.

[/ QUOTE ]

what do you put the sb on?
i think bk is very likely ahead of the girl.

Barron