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  #1  
Old 07-30-2005, 01:08 AM
ekky ekky is offline
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Default being honest with yourself (x-post)

I posted this on the MTT forum, and someone recommended that i posted it here... so I did.

I think its an exceptionally valid point in MTTs.. wondered what you all thought

As the title suggests, this is primarily about being honest to yourself about the situation you are in, be it a cash table/sng/multi.. although it primarily applies to MTT's.

I was observing/helping a friend in a tournament today, which I feel encapsulates the point perfectly:

Scenario:

Blinds 1/2k

Stacks.. Hero 47k
Villain 53k

Situation in the tourny.. in the money and fast approaching the final table.

Hero's hand: 9/9
position: Big Blind

Villains hand: not yet..
position: Small blind

The action was uneventful, folded around to the cutoff.. who made it 3.5k. The small blind just smooth called... and hero made it 10k even.

Cut off instantly folded, and small blind went all in.

Hero instantly called.

I asked hero what his thinking was, and he said something like this:

"well, I put the person on a range of AK--AQ.. and any pair, therefore I am a big favorite against that hand. I am getting a pot overlay, so I insta-call"

I was watching ardently WITH him, and the SB had folded every blind steal, and his only showndown hands were AA/KK/AK/AA

In short, the small blind was not playing here without AA/KK/QQ/AK and maybe JJ.

When it came to hero's call... the pot was 3.5 + 3.5+ 10 + 47 = so he had to call 37k to win 64k.. getting 1.72/1.. meaning he needs 36.6% equity for this move to be ChipEV neutral, not getting into the discrepancies of the value of chips won vs chips lost.

His actual equity was about 33%.. and if you think the range of the SB is too tight? trust me... the applied range is almost too loose.

In short, it was a bad call given the correct assumptions.

now... the main thrust of this post, was about the range he applied... and made his range FIT the pot odds.

He saw that he was getting good odds, and decided that he wanted to take part in the action, and rather then be objective, and issue a correct range of hands for this person who was tighter then a <insert example>, he decided to almost fabricate a range, to suit:

a) his hand
b) the pot odds

After he lost the hand (the guy had AA naturally) he said again "oh well.. i was ahead of his range of hands" and used that to convince himself it was the correct move.

Given an objective analysis of the scenario, it was clearly an incorrect play... .but in his post tournament analysis, he made the cardinal sin of making his estimates fit his situation.

This is not an isolated example however. This behaviour is rampant. Its the single most common reason (in my opine) why people make it to a certain stage in a tournament and then *blow up*. They lose the objectivity that is essential, in order to make correct decisions.

The math of poker is USELESS, unless you are objective, and apply objective and accurate ranges for your opponents.If you are one of the people who makes the range fit the situation,you are fooling yourself, and your bankroll.

Any poker situation can be governed by math, as long as you apply stipulations and situational considerations. If these are incorrect, then your subsequent play will also be incorrect.

So, whilst I re-read this wittering and wonder what the point was, my message is:

always be honest about the situation you are in, and more importantly, dont let the situation alter your estimations of your villains hand ranges/folding liklihoods otherwise whilst the application of math mite be correct, the usefulness of it is null.
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  #2  
Old 07-30-2005, 03:01 AM
Dov Dov is offline
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Default Re: being honest with yourself (x-post)

You see it all the time in every game, not just tournaments.

I was in a live 15/30 game about 6 months ago (a real action game) when my AK turned into a broadway on the turn. The villain who I had played with quite a bit had led the betting on the flop (which usually means TP or better for him) bet the turn and I raised.

He looked right at me and said, "I guess I have to put you on something I can beat now, because if you have AK, then I'm crushed!"

He then proceeded to put me on a pair with a flush draw and called me down (I was holding the nuts) when the last of the suit didn't fall.

This is definitely not an isolated case. I've done it myself at times and have seen others do it too.

You are right. This is a great way to self destruct in any game. It is just another form of denial. It is a very good way to go on tilt too.
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  #3  
Old 07-30-2005, 04:30 AM
frappeboy frappeboy is offline
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Default Re: being honest with yourself (x-post)

Ekky,

This is an excellent post. I believe this to be a big problem among players who are break even or even small winners.. They justify their actions and think they play well, but wonder why they can't achieve the same results as the pros.
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  #4  
Old 07-30-2005, 12:09 PM
Net Warrior Net Warrior is offline
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Default Re: being honest with yourself (x-post)

Hero's estimate was unchanged in post game analysis so it seems that the game situation didn't alter his estimation of villan's hand. It seems hero's ability to size up opponents needs work.

That being said, very nice post on a very subtle form of tilt, altering your estimations to fit situations.
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  #5  
Old 07-30-2005, 12:41 PM
Al Schoonmaker Al Schoonmaker is offline
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Default Re: being honest with yourself (x-post)

Excellent post. You might have made one additional point.

Calling a probable steal raise, then re-raising all in SCREAMS AA or KK. That is, even if the SB had not already demonstrated extreme tightness, the betting pattern very clearly indicated that he had a huge pair, making your friend a huge dog.

Your points about objectivity were well stated. He was clearly deluding himself to justify a mistake

Regards,

Al
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  #6  
Old 07-30-2005, 01:06 PM
johnc johnc is offline
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Default Re: being honest with yourself (x-post)

Great post! Something that's been on my mind and you said it perfectly.

Another version of this kind of thinking I've seen in the some of the threads I read on this site. People are hopelessly beaten but use labeling of their opponents to justify their actions ie. "donk", "fish", "maniac", etc, etc. Labeling, IMO is a very dangerous trap to allow one to get into - it limits one's view of their opponents or allows one to lie to themselves about their actions ("this table is full of fish so I knew my TPBK was likely to be the best in spite of the scary board and all the raising"). I guess their egos won't allow them to approach the game in a sterile, objective fashion and use the reads they've worked to accumulate in the most efficient way.
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  #7  
Old 07-31-2005, 08:45 PM
ekky ekky is offline
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Default Re: being honest with yourself (x-post)

yeah. I was trying to make the post more about a typical persons thought process, rather then what a certain play indicates... but yes.. that move is rarely a weak hand.
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  #8  
Old 07-31-2005, 09:41 PM
DyessMan89 DyessMan89 is offline
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Default Re: being honest with yourself (x-post)

Good thread, "My Poker Binder" worthy. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I seem to do this all the time, and its the reason why I bust out late in tourneys, and its the reason why I busted out of my last tourney. It was mid tourneys, and a player with a huge stack went all-in, I look down and find QQ. I knew he was a tight-aggressive player, and wouldnt go all-in (with such a large stack) unless he had AA,KK, or possibly AK. I of cource instantly called ... he turned over AK ... and I lost. I didnt put him on the correct range of hands, and I didnt take into consideration the stage of the tourney. I just saw QQ and thought to myself "I've got Queens -- how can I fold?!?".
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  #9  
Old 08-01-2005, 11:41 AM
flair1239 flair1239 is offline
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Default Re: being honest with yourself (x-post)

In Limit, I think this occurs when you get checkraised on the turn by a "standard" player.

I am guilty of this as well. Assigning many hands to the villian, that I either beat or have outs against, or giving the villian too much credit for being tricky.

Since SSH came out, you can see this a lot on the limit strategy boards as well. Folding just is not cool, these days.
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  #10  
Old 08-01-2005, 03:28 PM
Net Warrior Net Warrior is offline
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Default Re: being honest with yourself (x-post)

[ QUOTE ]
Folding just is not cool, these days.

[/ QUOTE ]

GREAT LINE! [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
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