150/300 hand

Check call is best line. If you are beat you are not getting any value by raising, if you think he is a weak player and capable of folding best hand then absoloutly raise. Otherwise check call is best.

[mikelow]

Bet. I think you have to follow through on this. If he is too tight, he might throw away 99 or even AT.

[bicyclekick]

I was convinced by a very good player that check-raising the flop is a slightly better play than check-calling. I'm usually a flop pounder but I fealt like taking it slower on this one.

IMO, the only play on the river is bet/fold. Check-calling is pretty damn bad IMO as I don't think he bets any hands I beat pretty much ever and I don't get any bets from ace-highs like I might by betting. I'm not bet/calling either because this type of player will not bluff-raise me 1 time in 6 or whatever the pot will be giving me on that board I don't think.

[Paluka]

BK why do you dismiss the possibility of check and fold? Don't you think this guy would take a free showdown with ace high? Your hand certainly looks like a missed draw or a pair that plans on calling a bet.

[mike l.]

check fold is not as good because this player sounds like he will call with A high every time.

[bicyclekick]

I don't dismiss it. I don't know why I didn't make a comment on it in my post, just forgot I guess.

I think check/fold is better than everything except bet fold.

I think it's decently close but I think betting is superior.

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
check fold is not as good because this player sounds like he will call with A high every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't the only factor that matters. You need to know how often he has ace high, how often he'll check a better hand on the river, if he'll ever fold a better hand, etc...

[Shandrax]

Forget my previous posting!

If you check and he bets there is $1600 in the pot and it costs $300 to call = 5.33:1

What can you beat?
A-K (16)
A-Q (16)
K-Q (16)
Q-9s (4)
Q-8s (3)
A-xs (32)
K-xs (32)
6-6 (12)
4-4 (12)
2-2 (12)
BLUFF
= 155 + x

What beats you?
A-A (12)
K-K (12)
Q-Q (12)
J-J (6)
T-T (6)
9-9 (12)
8-8 (6)
7-7 (6)
5-5 (6)
A-J (12)
K-J (12)
Q-J (12)
A-T (12)
K-T (12)
Q-T (12)
J-T (9)
J-9 (12)
T-9 (12)
J-8 (9)
T-8 (9)
9-8 (12)
6-4 (16)
= 229

There are 229 combinations to beat you. Given the 5.33:1 odds you only need 43 combinations to beat him order to break even. If you scratch some foolish combinations that will never go to the river (2-2, Q-8s and such) from the list and leave him with just 2 high overcards (A-K, A-Q, K-Q) you are still well over 43 combinations that you can beat and bluffs on his part are not even counted.

Without much of a read on the opponent I can't see how a fold in this situation can be justified. Sorry, but it's a clear check/call and nothing else.

If I am wrong on this, then I will throw my copy of "Play Poker like the Pros" out of the window [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

You are implicitly assuming that he always bluffs with the hands you listed.

If that was the case, then check/call would be correct. However, I hardly see those bluffs in position on the river in the high stakes games.

[Shandrax]

I assume that he called on 4th street with (maybe too) many hands, yes. On the river it is not that easy to call it "just a bluff" since any overcard to a jack can technically win the pot.

All our hero needs to do to break even is to beat 43 more or less legitimate combinations. A-K, A-Q and K-Q make up for 48 combinations.

The question is, would your opponent bet such hands on the river? With ace high, maybe he can make a small pair like 7-7 fold. Don't forget that he could have had 6-6 also. That's another 12 combinations and a very legitimate hand.