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#1
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25/50NL Hows My Line?
Heads-up, villian has about 6k I have him covered. We have been playing heads-up for about 30minutes since game broke, he is solid, not too creative, and I have been bullying him quite a bit. We've only gone to showdown a few times on significant pots and I've had the goods usually.
74s in BB, he raises to 150, I call. He was raising probably about 40% of hands, sometimes minraise, other times pot-raise. I defended a good % of times. Flop 335r. I check, he pots it for 300, I make it 900. He continuation bet about 50% of time after raising pf, I would fold most of the time OOP. THis is only my third or fourth flop cr and first time I haven't had the goods. He calls the raise. Turn is offsuit 4. I bet 1000. He calls. Rirver 3, I move in for his last 4k.. Will I make him fold his PP enough times on the river for my bet to be +EV, given the circumstances? We have no prior history with each other before this session, fwiw. |
#2
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Re: 25/50NL Hows My Line?
I think someone folds a PP >5 0% of the time.
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#3
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Re: 25/50NL Hows My Line?
I think 99 or better is looking you up here a large percantage of the time. I think the river push is a -EV play.
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#4
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Re: 25/50NL Hows My Line?
bluffing people off full houses is -ev
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#5
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Re: 25/50NL Hows My Line?
[ QUOTE ]
bluffing people off full houses is -ev [/ QUOTE ] Given the circumstances though, the fact that he has a full house here doesn't mean much, since it's not hard to have a full. What could my hand range be, logically? I'd say based on my flop checkraise (in order) a 3, big overpair, air, 55 (or other FH), and occasionally a OESD/GSSD. If I am continuing on after the flop checkraise, given that I haven't shown down any crap or played back at his bets very often, what conceivable reason would he have to believe I have nothing here, on a relatively harmless board with him showing strength? Let's put it another way; if I was in villian's shoes and asked would it be +EV to call that allin with 77-TT, given my description, I'd highly doubt most of you would say it is a good call. Relatively straightforward players RARELY bluff 3-barrels, especially into a draw-less board like this, so by being a calling station and HOPING that by some chance you have caught the other person on a stone cold bluff is bad play in the long run, no? |
#6
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Re: 25/50NL Hows My Line?
given your history, i dont think i would ever fold 77-TT in the villain's shoes.
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#7
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Re: 25/50NL Hows My Line?
Given that
1. we've played few big pots, 2. when we have i've always shown him good hands, and thus 3. He most likely thinks I am a straightforward player What makes you so sure I'm bluffing here, other than the fact that I've told you my hole cards? How would you expect me to play 55, QQ-AA (keep in mind I haven't reraised him OOP yet PF so he shouldn't necessarily expect me to with these holdings), or a 3? |
#8
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Re: 25/50NL Hows My Line?
When I play huge pots in spots like this I usually end up kicking myself for it as I like to be on complete air or holding something very strong. Given the strength of your hand, I think you should have looked to keep the pot smallish.
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#9
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Re: 25/50NL Hows My Line?
Heads up I cannot conceive of folding 88+ here. I'd probably call with any overpair here precisely because you never know when somebody's going to show up with some busted gut-shot/turned pair or some other junk like that.
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#10
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Re: 25/50NL Hows My Line?
you might get call by AK but you will never ever get a fold from 88-AA
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