(11) A play I dont see very often

[tigerite]

You don't see it very often for a reason.

That's all.

[SonnyJay]

For your play to break even:

Currently: 650 (ICM: .088)

ALL IN
A) Everyone folds (x%)
Hero: 785 (ICM: .1044)

B) Get Called (MP1) (1-x%)

i) 2 Overcards (55-45) (80% of the time when you get called)
55%: Hero: 1405 (ICM: .1741)
45%: Hero: 0

i) Overpair (20% of the time you get called)
20%: Hero: 1405 (ICM: .1741)
80%: Hero: 0

.55*.1741= .095755

.2*.1741= .03482

.8*.095755 + .2*.03482= .083568 ICM when you get called

x*.1044 + (1-x)*.083568 = .088
.1044x + .083568 - .083568x = .088
.020832x=.004432
x=.2127

You have to fold your opponent 21.3% of the time to break even vs. a fold. I'm sure you'll do that, but you are passing up a very favorable opportunity to hit your set cheaply against loose opponents.

No one is can stop you from making this play, but I'd listen to the advice being given. As I said, +EV isn't the end of the argument. There can be a better, more +EV answer out there.

-SonnyJay

[golfcchs]

[ QUOTE ]
All you're saying, golfcchs, may be true. That being said, you're taking an unnecessary risk when you don't need to. The fact is that if you get called here you aren't going to like it. You don't want to be taking a 55-45 edge at best here. You need to fold this guy off a huge percentage of the time to confidently make this play.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why do I not want to take a 55 to 45 edge? With the over lay I would be happy getting called by 2 overs. Lets say you limp and dont hit your set. You could easily be looking at a stack of 550 going into level 4 with 8 people left and with how many people still limp level 4 at the 11 I dont think you get enough chances to steal with that small of a stack. If my stack were any bigger I would not have made this play, but I think I just barely have a small enough stack to make this push.

[golfcchs]

I know that some people limp TT-QQ at the levens, but I have seen the first limper raise TT early and the second limper raise JJ from mid position.

[tigerite]

Nah you shouldnt be happy with it, I ain't done the ICM for this yet, but I bet you you need to be around 47-48% favourite like the TT on the other post, the problem is you're not just going to be called by overcards, are you? This knocks it way down, it's probably barely neutral EV. You can get better spots than this.

[golfcchs]

Thanks for the reply really great post. Could you run these numbers if I had 550 chips. I'am starting to think my stack may have been a little large for this play, but I do believe this is very profitable as my stack gets smaller.

[golfcchs]

I see no one is in favor of my play. Would anyone make this with a shorter stack? How short would you have to be to make this push?

[SonnyJay]

I, too, feel awkward at the 9-11 BB range, as I don't feel that comfortable making an all in push and I don't feel like facing resistance on a 3xBB or so raise.

As nice as it is to have a big stack to steal with, you're nowhere near desperation yet. You still have 22xBB, which will likely be somewhere around 11xBB when the blinds raise to 25/50. Survival to later stages and using bubble aggression is important. You seem to understand the aggression, but being able to survive to where it is most effective is equally as important. You have a big edge if you make it to the bubble and know how/when to be aggressive.

Understanding why you aren't looking to take a 55-45 edge is really important. A big stack to steal with is nice, but a luxury compared to being at the bubble (at Party $11s). If the blinds are t50 and you make this play it has more merit. Here it seems like an unnecessary risk when (as has been mentioned a few times) you're in a textbook situation of when to limp with a mid-small pocket pair.

-SonnyJay