Crucial Hand: Heads up in the Paradise $35,000

[RiverMel]

Hey. It's heads up during the Paradise 9:00pm $35,000 guaranteed tournament.

A bit of background: My image is super-maniac. I had 60% of the outstanding chips with 8 people left, and people had been folding way too much. Enough so that I felt it was profitable to make steal-raises with hands like 42o. So, I had shown a number of complete crap hands (that is, when I was called--the blinds were large enough that a 3x or 4x pfr was leading to people calling all-in, or they would have maybe 5x-7x and re-raise me and I'd be committed), and I was raising pre-flop something like 80% of the time.

My opponent was solid. He had managed to survive the lunacy caused by my final table strategy, and amassed a nice number of chips against the other players. I think I doubled him up once from 200k to 400k at one point. Once he got some chips, he was pretty aggressive himself if I had folded, and took a fair number of shots against the blinds himself. He was probably smart enough to know that I wasn't a real super-maniac, and that my strategy was actually reasonable.

We play maybe 15 or 20 hands heads up.

The following hand comes up (sorry, bison's converter isn't working for me..anyone know why?):

Me: 1.37 M chips
Him: 1.16 M chips

Blinds: 35,000/70,000 (4,000 Ante)

I'm in the SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I raise to 205,000. He calls. Pot is 418,000.

Flop is K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

He checks. Your move?
...or...
He bets the pot. Your move?

Results to follow. Thanks.

[adanthar]

Just by calling, one would assume he'd have an above average hand (or at least something that'd beat you PF.) If he's betting at you, you are probably behind, but your draw might be good (would he bet an unpaired A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] when you could easily raise the pot?) Since you also have a pair I think I'd call a pot sized bet and reevaluate on the turn.

If he checks I'd lean towards checking behind as I am very screwed if he CR's...but on second thought, it depends on how he's been playing. If I thought I could make him fold, I'd bet 2/3 the pot or more and see what happened.

[RiverMel]

Interesting perspective. Thanks. Any others before I post the results?

[durron597]

HU is all about reads. What would he call a raise with? Does he have a decent hand that he wants to see a flop with? Does he have a huge hand that the flatcall is intended to trap?

If you can't get that specific, then I push here vs. a tightish player either way. If he's loose, I probably check behind if he checks and push if he pots it.

[RiverMel]

Time for the results that everyone has been waiting for! (Or, no one maybe).

Opponent checked. I saw 400k in the pot, and thought that the vast majority of the time, I would be at worst a coin flip. I thought checking was the second worst option. Betting the pot seemed like a very bad idea. So I pushed, and hoped that even if I was in a coin-flip scenario, the opponent would fold. Opponent calls and turns over K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for top-pair with no flush draw. (Reminder: I had bottom pair with 4-flush). Apparently I was 50.1% to win this hand. Turn brought the Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. 22.73% to win on the river...and, I get no help. 2nd place and $6100.

Funny thing is, earlier in the tournament (with about 150 left) people were asking about re-buys. I had made five (unusual for me, I almost always get by with just the one re-buy at the beginning, occaisonally two), and said I needed to get at least 20th to break even, but "luckily, I'm going to get second place."