Major Downswing..........seriously lost

[Melchiades]

15-30 buy ins in NL cash is a LOT.

As others have said, this downswing is too big to be due to variance unless you happen to be victim to an extremely rare occurence. It's reasonable (and perfectly understandable) to assume that you've been playing badly for part of this, but that doesn't matter much as it's in the past.

Here are my suggestions; I think doing some combination of these is +EV:

1) Take a break (obviously).

2) Cash out all but a small amount (I think $55 is good) and work your way from the $11s to the $55s playing on a falsely short bankroll with poor bankroll management on a site different from the one you currently play. (You could also do the equivalent in cash games, but I can't translate stakes for you.) If you lose your fake roll, laugh (If you won't find it funny, don't do this one).

3) Play a new game, like LO8 or triple-draw lowball or something. Play it at stakes that you're very comfortable with (2/4?), but take it seriously.

4) Take someone to a nice restaurant and realize how little money's worth.

5) Keep yourself busy for a while and only come back to poker when you feel like playing, not when you feel like making money.

6) Think about times when you lost money because of obviously bad play. Consider how much money finding and correcting those mistakes has made you since. Then, review your HHs. Find mistakes that you made towards the beginning of your downswing that are standard for you; also find mistakes that were due to tilt. Enjoy the ridiculous amount of money losing this $45k earned you in the long run.

Honestly hope this helps.

[zipppy]

Hey Jared-

I think multi-pwning smaller stakes SNGs/NL cash games is a great way to regain confidence, stop the downswing, and have a little "break" from the regular games you play in.

By doing this, you can see others' mistakes and open up your eyes to how far you've come. If you play 100 SNGs at each level starting with the 22s, or 5000ish hands at each cash game level starting with 1/2 NL, perhaps you can better evaluate at which level you're noticing less mistakes in others' play, and figure out if there are serious leaks in your own game.

If whatever you decide to do isn't working, think seriously about stealing raptor's luckbox.

>>>ZIPPPY

Edit: I know that 22s and 1/2 is WAY below what you normally play, but that's the idea. Start with something you'll crush.

[durron597]

When on a big downswing I go read Irieguy's posts on the subject.

Post 1

Post 2

Post 3

[Maulik]

I was "running terribly" until I looked over some HHs via PT and found out I was using my selective memory to remember when I was outdrawn. Fortunately for me, I begin replaying my hands and seeing this was a consequence of playing some hands terribly.

[1C5]

Nice post.

I am in the middle if "it" now and "it" sucks.

[citanul]

Rojo,

It sounds like you're getting crushed at 10/20. Crushed hard.

At times like this it's important to do a few things:

1) slow down or stop
2) look over hands
3) eliminate the tilt
4) find a way to make the games you play fun to you again before you play them
5) notice how much money you have left, and how you're still up a buttload
6) when you do figure out that you're on tilt, figure out how to not do it to yourself in the future, and then consider the money lost now money well spent if you never go donkeynuts again
7) go back to the basics. if the basics don't work at your normal game, move down a stake or two
8) play fewer tables. laugh a little. breathe a little

I'm sure there's more. You know other poker players. Go hang out and make them let you unload your bad beat stories on them.

c

[kevstreet]

[ QUOTE ]
I am in the middle if "it" now and "it" sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jared, if you're running even at the $200s perhaps you should ride it out playing SnGs. There is less variance, especially if you decided to drop down a level at least until your confidence is back.

Lord knows IC5 and the rest of us $22ers hope you end this quick before you drop down to the $22s.

Report back when you start running well again... good luck.

[citanul]

sidenote:

are you Rojocuse or whatever?

c

[lacky]

The thing that has helped me the most in looking at negative varience is playing with an excel spreadsheet. I dont remember who wrote it, the file is called streaks. If you pm me I can email it to you, but you could probably search it too.

the sheet calculates simulated runs of play bases on the bb/100 and sd you put in. Playing around with it was a real education in how bad you really can run. I know from it to play 20/40 limit I have to be ready to deal with a $25,000+ downswing, more than twice the accepted 300 big bet standerd people like to talk about. I would guess in 10/20 nl that figure is closer to $80000.

I hope to never go through a run like that, but if pops up in normal simulated runs, it's clobbering somebody in real life too. I hope to not get cancer, but it's happening to somebody.

oh, and take a week off, start back lower, reveiw your play, etc. etc.