AK suited vs. ridiculous overbet...Super Monday

[ekky]

Or you could say that as they limped.. they have small pocket pairs or suited connectors, therefore you can take potential cards out the deck, meaning you are even MORE likely to hit your A or your K

I'll stick to the unknown probabilities and make no assumptions.

[scal78]

[ QUOTE ]
Or you could say that as they limped.. they have small pocket pairs or suited connectors, therefore you can take potential cards out the deck, meaning you are even MORE likely to hit your A or your K

I'll stick to the unknown probabilities and make no assumptions.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, you could look at it that way, too.

I'm of the thought, though, that racing with over 70 big blinds is a risk that I'm not willing to take at this stage of the tournament.

[arx]

Let me take a different angle.

You pushing might bring along UTG+1 or +2....and then I do not like our hand that much...

If I were sure noone else is calling, I would, but I do not have the certainty, so I fold.

arx

[bdohaney]

That early into the tournament, with my stack that large relative to the blind, I would have to fold here. Yes, you have to win some coinflips and get your stacks up, but at best you are probably behind to JJ or QQ, with a VERY off chance of AQ, KQ or a bluff. More likely you are against AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT; any of which would have you beat unless you catch. Save your pushing for when you need to.

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey, I certainly don't think that Im one of the best players on 2+2, or even one of the better ones. I just meant that I'm not some total newb whose really out of line.

As for Toms post:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

636,977,088 games 1.171 secs 543,959,938 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 45.4808 % 40.38% 05.10% { 55+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ }
Hand 2: 54.5192 % 49.42% 05.10% { AKs }

To me this is a little more realistic, but that's just quibbling over a small 4% EV difference. The real issue is whether or not it's worth it in a tournament to put your whole stack at risk with only small edges in your favor.

Mike, your line is 100% right in money games, I just feel that in tournies since you only have 1 shot and can't rebuy, protecting your chips becomes more important. For example, if you had the chance to put your money allin as a 51% favorite in the first hand of the tourney, would you take it? I feel that you have more equity waiting for a better spot. Obviously there is a line somewhere, and often somewhere later on in the tourney I will make this call. Usually only when The blinds force me to do so, though. It's tough to win more than 1-2 coinflips in any given tourney.

[/ QUOTE ]

First hand of the tourney I get a chance to double up when I'm a mathmatical favorite? I'm taking it 100% of the time.

So what happens here:

Almost half the time I free up the remainder of my day to go chew up cash games.

A little more than half the time I get a double stack to dominate the table and dramatically improve my chances of going deep and accumulating a monster stack.

Man I wish I had that chance EVERY tourney I play!

-Scott

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
First hand of the tourney I get a chance to double up when I'm a mathmatical favorite? I'm taking it 100% of the time.

So what happens here:

Almost half the time I free up the remainder of my day to go chew up cash games.

A little more than half the time I get a double stack to dominate the table and dramatically improve my chances of going deep and accumulating a monster stack.

Man I wish I had that chance EVERY tourney I play!


[/ QUOTE ]

Thread over.

Move along, nothing more to be said.

Regards,
Woodguy

[badluckal]

One item that has been largely ignored in this thread:

Avoiding coin-flips early only applies if you are one of the better players in the field. Why would you want to gamble now if you can win chips slowly with superior skill?

On the other hand, if you feel like you need to gamble in order to win because you are not as skilled as your competition, take small edges for all your chips while understanding that you will be busting alot in such spots.

Other minor points that make this a fold IMHO - Villan pushed in to you rather than vice versa. You only have T150 invested, less than 10% of your stack.

[Rduke55]

[ QUOTE ]
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

595,881,792 games 1.187 secs 502,006,564 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 58.6619 % 53.17% 05.49% { AKs }
Hand 2: 41.3381 % 35.85% 05.49% { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, AJo+, KQo }

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this range is waaaay to wide. He reraised your raise all-in. Not knowing the specific villian I'd have to think AK, JJ-AA, probably QQ-AA actually

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
First hand of the tourney I get a chance to double up when I'm a mathmatical favorite? I'm taking it 100% of the time.

So what happens here:

Almost half the time I free up the remainder of my day to go chew up cash games.

A little more than half the time I get a double stack to dominate the table and dramatically improve my chances of going deep and accumulating a monster stack.

Man I wish I had that chance EVERY tourney I play!


[/ QUOTE ]

Thread over.

Move along, nothing more to be said.

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]

[phredd]

[ QUOTE ]
If you think he has JJ, why fold? I'd be all in in a heartbeat if I put him on JJ, dead money in the pot...

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I'm not understanding something crucial here. Your hand is a slight dog to JJ. Why would you call an all-in and risk crippling yourself knowing you are behind? Your edge in this hand depends on the times villain makes this move WITHOUT a pocket pair, does it not? I'm a newb, so I feel I must really be missing something about this comment....