middle pair - a plan?

[The_Curtain]

I think calling is the worst option here. It appears to be either a fold or raise.

With 10-1 odds it could appear that calling in hopes of hitting a J or T (8-1) isn't bad, but I feel this is a weak mentality that hopes that the cards will win for us and not our play that increase our chances of winning the hand.

This hand closely mirrors the opening example of the post flop play in SSHE, which recommends raising (folding isn't a terrible play either). Although unlikely, if the TAG could release a higher pair (JJ,QQ,KK) even a fraction of the time it would make this a great play. Obviously, getting JT, QT, KT to fold would also increase our equity, although it is unlikely the TAG or passive guy would be playing this. I think raising makes the rest of the hand easier to play.

If we are 3-bet I think we should call and fold the turn UI.

[Octopus]

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This hand closely mirrors the opening example of the post flop play in SSHE, which recommends raising (folding isn't a terrible play either).

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In that hand, Hero was first to act after the pre-flop raiser; no one had yet called the PFRs post-flop bet. This situation is quite different. We can not realistically expect to get it heads up with a raise, even if we are currently ahead, plus the chances we currently have the best hand are somewhat lower than in that example. (People seem to forget that that is an important part of the analysis in that hand.)

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I think calling is the worst option here. It appears to be either a fold or raise.


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With that in mind, I am not sure that calling is such a bad option (although folding is clearly ok). If it is checked to us on the turn, we can bet there, or if it goes bet, fold to us, then we can consider raising the turn depending on exactly what we think of PFR. At least, that is my current thinking.

For what it is worth, though, I did raise it on the flop and both the blind and the PFR folded. The cold-caller went to the end with his gutshot draw, and MHIG. I now feel that this was misplaced aggression on my part.

[lerxst337]

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For what it is worth, though, I did raise it on the flop and both the blind and the PFR folded. The cold-caller went to the end with his gutshot draw, and MHIG. I now feel that this was misplaced aggression on my part.

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Honestly, I think this is the only combination of hands that this play works with. If the PFR folded on the flop after betting, I think its pretty clear he folded a high pocket pair counting on at least the caller or you to have the ace. But that's a hell of a parlay--he didn't have an ace, the caller didn't either, you raised, and he gave credit for the ace. Call, fold UI sounds best to me, but I'd listen to fold the flop as well. Your insticts are right, in general this play would not work.

[silkyslim]

does anyone fold preflop or is that not the best with the cold caller in there? I would call because you are getting 10-1 with about 5 outs . If you catch the 2 tens i think u r goot. the J's are scary so we discount. backdoor straight might split. i think peeling and folding is close after this. crap lets go with Nick on this and fold because you dont want to draw to the 2nd best hand.

[Octopus]

First, you did notice that I am a poster here, right? (Without that, this is a trivial fold.)

I am not opposed to folding pre-flop. I tend to be fairly loose as a poster though. Probably I am projecting because I am extremely aggressive when another player has posted. My raising range there (in his position) would be any hand I would chose to play, and that range would actually be a bit larger than normal. I tend to assign the same thinking to anyone I perceive as a thinking player. This is probably not a reasonable assumption, but there it is. (Also notice that this is quite a bit better than making the same call in the BB because of our superior position throughout the hand.)

[soweak.]

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getting 10:1 folding has to be worse than calling. I don't really know what raising does for us here, so I think I call and check out the turn.

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what outs are we expecting to hit here?

[soweak.]

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First, you did notice that I am a poster here, right? (Without that, this is a trivial fold.)

I am not opposed to folding pre-flop. I tend to be fairly loose as a poster though. Probably I am projecting because I am extremely aggressive when another player has posted. My raising range there (in his position) would be any hand I would chose to play, and that range would actually be a bit larger than normal. I tend to assign the same thinking to anyone I perceive as a thinking player. This is probably not a reasonable assumption, but there it is. (Also notice that this is quite a bit better than making the same call in the BB because of our superior position throughout the hand.)

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Being the poster is moot on whether or not it is a good idea to call one more with JTo. There was a thread a few months back on a similar on whether to call one raise in a similar situation out of the BB. The concensus there was that if was for the most part a clear fold. The reasons concluded were that JTo is so marginal you often go too far in the hand when you flop a marginal draw or another marginal made hand. The only advantage you have in this hand is position.

I think in most cases I would be folding pre-flop without any other information on the people who have acted or who remain to act in the hand.

I also believe that you should fold on the flop.