JJ on the bubble. Small stack almost blinded out. Do I call a push?

[aces961]

Here is a question for you guys, If he flipped up qh jd and you had jh js, do you call or fold.


Also I'm wondering what you guys think your ev needs to be in this situation to call as well as what your ev with the jj is against a hand that he'd raise to 1500 with. I'm looking for actual numbers not just pretty high or something to that effect.

[valenzuela]

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I think the only way you can call this is if you can put the bigstack on a lower PP or Ax or Kx. I probably would have made the call and been upset with myself afterwords. I say unless he's been raising every other hand, lay it down.

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welcome to the forum, btw ure wrong

[valenzuela]

Lets ask ICM, ICM says I need to win 66% of the time, lol the new guy was right.

[aces961]

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Lets ask ICM, ICM says I need to win 66% of the time, lol the new guy was right.

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually got .68 but its really impossible to caclulate for sure without knowing a decent amount about what the bb will call with if you fold and if you call. I'm pretty sure it can't be anything outside of .66 to .70 though.
As to what the ev of the jacks is against the guy who raised to 1500, against most opponents I have to think its probably less than the .66 you need to call but not by very much. I think this is a very borderline case and basically comes down to personal preference as to if you'd rather have a small stack going into the money more often or a large stack less often.

[curtains]

hmm yeah I just ran the hand too.....against a range like 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2s+,Q6o+,J7s+,J9o+,T8s+,98s, it claims its -EV to call!!!!!!!! UNBELIEVBALE!!!!

It also says to fold QQ against the following range: 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs for whatever it's worth.

[viennagreen]

if it was a 215 i would call even faster... i would expect the range of hands for UTG to be greater in a 215