$1500 NL hand from the Borgata Open

[Tyler Durden]

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i don't dig it. you probably drew out on his overpair yes?

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I'll post the results after I get some more replies.

[Exitonly]

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I didn't check the whole thing closely. However, I think you made the mistake of P(only second guy calls) = P(second guy calls given that old guy has folded). You want P(only second guy calls) = P(old guy folds)*P(second guy calls given that old guy has folded). This should help a little.

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nah i got that.. unless i misread what you said.

edit: but i did make their ranges way too tight.. way way too tight. thers a bunch of suited conneectors that could be in there .. but now i dont feel like going back and doing more, especially if i'm not even sure what i did was right.

and i don't think adding those hands would add enough FE to overcome the -EV that i 'calculated'

[locutus2002]

I don't like it.

In the case where you are up against a pair you are in bad shape.
Your best situation is when both villains have overs.

With such an uncoordinated board and a swollen pot, I don't think you can expect either villain to fold two overcards which is your best case scenario. Because big stack didn't raise I don't think the opener will feel that squeezed. Also hero isn't representing much more than a 7 or so.

Similarly the big stack is not going to be deterred from calling with so much dead money in the pot and so little hand to have to beat.

There is so much dead money that the play is not that EV--, but my sense is that hero has almost no FE.

IMO

[MLG]

Seems chipping spewingish to me. Hope you sucked out on a set.

[slickpoppa]

I only like this move if you have an open-ender or flush draw OR you have a tight image against another tight player. If you get called, you only have 4 or 5 effective outs, cause I dont think your J or T will be live against any hand calling you.

I worry somewhat about the cold caller having a set.

[Tyler Durden]

Flop was 975r. I checkraised all in and the pfr mucked immediately so my read of him was good. The caller thought about it for over a minute and called w/ 66. The turn bricked--no flush draw. River also bricked and IGHN.

I was a 55 to 45 dog.

As others said....when I shook his hand and said nice call, he said that he would have folded if I didn't think so long. Unfortunately it took me that long to size up the situation and their weakness.

Any other comments?

I've heard the "I would have folded if you didn't think so long" line a few times before. What do people think of this comment? Is it a common conception that a long think followed by a push is a very weak hand or a semi-bluff? Or is it something people say to justify calling with a super-weak hand like bottom pair? If this is a common conception, do people take advantage of it by going in the tank with the nuts or near-nuts and then pushing in order to get a call?

[WSOPstar2B]

face to face a long time thinking means a weak hand. Online it could be a slow connection, but if it takes some1 a while to go all in, to me, it reeks of a bluff/steal move.