care to help out?

[Disconnected]

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Turn: The J is an overcard which isn't nice. An A or K would be a lot more worrysome. I take the free card here.

River: A reasonably safe card with no agression. I would take the free showdown.

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I don't think you can afford the free card on the turn at this point. There are too many potential overcards that you wouldn't want someone to get for free.

To me, the river is read-dependent. If the other guys were aggressive, I might consider checking behind. If they were calling down with BP, they just made trips and would check-raise, while if they were on a draw, they won't pay us off. If they were unknown or passive, a bet is good, since there are a fair number of hands that would pay us off.

[grjr]

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in the long run folding the flop is the best option.


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I don't like folding this flop. You're getting 9:1 to call and I don't see a reason to think that all your trips/2-pair outs aren't good, so you should at least draw to 'em.


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I don't expect anyone to agree with me here but I'll explain a little further. When SB bets out into 7 players that makes me think he has x8 where x is bigger than our 9 or a pocket pair like 99 or TT or maybe even a small set (in which case we're drawing dead).

So...I don't think we're ahead and I don't think we have 5 outs (maybe half that?). I think if we played this hand 100 times we'd come out ahead by folding the flop. In the grand scheme of things it's not going to matter that much. I just thought it was something interesting to think about.

Addendum: I've played a lot of no foldem holdem where everyone sees the flop and 8's with a 9 kicker just don't win too much. In fact, in a game like that if you folded practically every time you didn't have a straight or flush draw or set (2 pair probably is no good if the cards are connected) on the flop you would probably come out ahead.

[GrunchCan]

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There is already too much talk about folding preflop in this thread.

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I agree. I wait eagerly for an opportunity like this.

[gharp]

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When SB bets out into 7 players that makes me think he has x8 where x is bigger than our 9 or a pocket pair like 99 or TT or maybe even a small set

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I think your range of hands for SB is pretty narrow (I'd add in lower pockets, AX where X=3or4, a straight draw, something ridiculous like AKo that he was afraid to raise preflop, etc), and even against all the hands in your range (except the set) you're drawing live to 5 clean outs.


[ QUOTE ]

Addendum: I've played a lot of no foldem holdem where everyone sees the flop and 8's with a 9 kicker just don't win too much. In fact, in a game like that if you folded practically every time you didn't have a straight or flush draw or set (2 pair probably is no good if the cards are connected) on the flop you would probably come out ahead.

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This advice seems to ignore the size of the pot. Would you continue on here if the pot was 15SB?

FWIW, I agree that you could still come out ahead if you folded every time you didn't flop 2pair+ or a strong draw. But I think you'll come out farther ahead if you play correctly in the more marginal situations (like this TP in a pretty big pot).

[bozlax]

I love 98s in this position with a couple of limpers in, especially if I'm fairly certain it won't be raised behind me.

On the flop, I'd prefer it if UTG+1 had folded also before raising, but I think you still have to do it to get MP3 and CO out. As an added bonus, if SB is playing weak overcards, he may bail when raised as well.

I think you have to bet the turn, here, since you raised the flop. An A or K falling would make me take the free river, but the J is just too soft.

Once it's checked to me on the river, I check it through (clearly passive opps aren't folding to one bet, and it would suck to be 3-bet by SB). If SB bet and UTG+1 raised, I'm out. SB bets and UTG+1 folds or calls and, uh, I'd call and hate it. SB checks and UTG+1 bets I'd call and then throw up in my mouth when SB raised.

[jpumass11]

I think I check the river since we are not making any better hands (J, 3, A8,K8,108s) fold, and a busted draw or whiffed overcards won't be calling, so the river bet is a lose/lose IMO.

[econ_tim]

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If you guys don't believe me then look up your stats for 98o (that's what we have here now) and tell me if you're making any money with it.

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This is not what we have now. We have top pair, medium kicker. If you know SQL (I don't) then you could find your winrate for flopped top-pair with medium kicker. It should be positive.

[jrz1972]

Preflop: Easy call, and I'm tighter than many of the people in this forum.

Flop: Raising is standard. There's a decent chance you're ahead, and even if you're not you're getting the odds to continue so you might as well raise and protect your hand.

Turn: You don't want to give a free card, so you bet. Note that you can easily dump this hand to a check-raise, so there is no chance of getting trapped on this street.

River: I don't know what those guys were calling me down with, but they're not calling the river with a busted draw, and I could easily have been behind the whole way. At this point, I don't expect to win most of the time when they call my river bet, so I don't make one. I check this one behind.

[666shooter]

PF: Fine.

Flop: Fine, I think the raise is your only shot at protecting this marginal hand.

Turn: Fine, The checks are good, I bet here as well.

River: Fine, I figure I'm ahead, I bet here.

[grjr]

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When SB bets out into 7 players that makes me think he has x8 where x is bigger than our 9 or a pocket pair like 99 or TT or maybe even a small set

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I think your range of hands for SB is pretty narrow (I'd add in lower pockets, AX where X=3or4, a straight draw, something ridiculous like AKo that he was afraid to raise preflop, etc), and even against all the hands in your range (except the set) you're drawing live to 5 clean outs.

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Not if he has x8 where x>9 (which I think he has) or 99.


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Addendum: I've played a lot of no foldem holdem where everyone sees the flop and 8's with a 9 kicker just don't win too much. In fact, in a game like that if you folded practically every time you didn't have a straight or flush draw or set (2 pair probably is no good if the cards are connected) on the flop you would probably come out ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]
This advice seems to ignore the size of the pot. Would you continue on here if the pot was 15SB?

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It wouldn't be unless there was a raise preflop. That makes it different.

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FWIW, I agree that you could still come out ahead if you folded every time you didn't flop 2pair+ or a strong draw. But I think you'll come out farther ahead if you play correctly in the more marginal situations (like this TP in a pretty big pot).

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I was suggesting that we may come out farther ahead in this type of game by folding top pair every time there are more than 7 players seeing the flop and we have no draw. By that I mean we lose less money by folding than we do by betting or raising. I'll soften it a little by saying our top pair is tens or less with less than a K or A kicker.

I realize that this is some whacked out thinking and I don't advocate playing like that but it just wouldn't surprise me if it didn't turn out to be the better play in the long run in a game where 8+ are seeing the flop and 6+ see the turn.