#1
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Weak draw faces aggression in large pot.
UTG is a big time LAG with stats of 59/17/2.2 over 50 hands. I haven't noticed him to make senseless plays, he's just a poor player. Button and BB are unknown, although button has coldcalled a raise already in the 2 orbits I've been at the table.
What should my turn action be? I'm really uncertain - this pot is big and I'd like to win it, but I can't see either of my pair outs being clean. Help, please. Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls, Button calls. Flop: (10.40 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls, Button calls. Turn: (6.70 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="green">Hero?</font> |
#2
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Re: Weak draw faces aggression in large pot.
This is close. You only need 5 outs, which means your ace needs to be good only ocasionally, and BB could have QQ, KQ, and possibly TT. If button raises behind you however, our odds are shot. So how likely is that? What type of hands had he cold called with earlier?
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#3
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Re: Weak draw faces aggression in large pot.
From the way button has played he could have paired any card on the turn. He might also have called the flop with an overcard and backdoor draw or perhaps any two. I think he'd only raise a set, king, or two pair (which is unlikely). To pull a number out of my head I guess that he'll have one of these just under 10% of the time. It's also possible he has my ace reverse dominated.
In the hear of the moment I was afraid of either reverse domination or a raise from button, but now that you had me articulate what he could be holding I think a call is in order. I believe all my gutshot outs to be clean, and I think I can count a single out for a pair. I was just worried that 5 effective outs was a bit too slim since I can't raise when I hit my ace or queen. I think it's a very close decision - which side do you fall on? |
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