50/100 Bottom Set, Unraised Pot

[Ulysses]

I'd make it 4500 on the turn. Sets shorthanded are gold. If he pushes, then I decide whether or not he has 77. If he has 77 and calls, that is a pretty sweet line and then I'd think he is better than I gave him credit for.

[theBruiser500]

'you dont think the two players behind him make a call more appealing? i dont think the flop raise rules out 77 by any means but i think your point would be stronger if his play didnt completely shut out the 2 other players in the pot.'

i really think that this is an aggressive good player, he is going to want to play for big pots with a set of sevens not try and trap a blind for an extra $450 to win a 1k or 2k pot, he has a set and wants to win it all, or at least give himself a shot to which he won't have with these stacks unless he starts building the pot right away.

[cwl]

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Also his turn bet size could mean he has a set and is hoping that ace hit me somehow and is inducing action from that or a lower set.

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why would he think the A hit you? i thought his turn bet made a set less likely. if he is fast playing a set and just hoping to catch you with a hand that can play i dont see why he would slow down like this. i get that people will sometimes try to milk value out of strong hands like this but it didnt seem like that was his flop plan and to start doing that on the turn seems like an odd change.

[DcifrThs]

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i dont think its that he thinks the bigger set is the most likely hand for his opponent to have here. at every point in this hand i think bruiser is more likely to be ahead than behind and i suspect he would say the same thing. the possibility of the bigger set still matters a lot though because of how easy it would be in this hand for the betting to go in such a way that almost all the worse hands he wants to play against are shut out.

if aggressive play causes him to win about the same from the hands he is beating but to lose his stack vs a higher set then the possibility of the higher set should cause him to play passively even though its nowhere near his opponents most likely hand. im not saying this is exactly the situation in this hand but this thinking does come into play here.

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thank you for saying it better than i could.

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yea thats some great reasoning

Barron

[BobboFitos]

This sorta looks like a bluff to me-

the flop is as dry as can be, he lays 1300 to win the 700 in the pot. figures blinds cant call w/o waking up with an extremely big hand (as KK would raise out of blinds, so really laying the money they dont have bottom/mid set or k7/k3) and figuring you for a flop steal, it was checked to you, you probably bet a wide range of hands. (hell, he may put you on open limping a small pp, but 66 and under means only 1 pp hit...)

probably going to give up when called thinking you have a big K and not letting go but the ace fits enough of his possible steal flop raising hands to warrant another shell utilizing the scare card. 1500 seems like the perfect bet as it makes you commit ~7k+ to see if he's bluffing at a 3k pot w/ the river to come.

or I could be totally wrong, but if he's a good aggressive opponent this looks like a typical steal board.

[cwl]

i think i basically agree with you about your fastplay probably just scaring him off. if you do choose to go for a real big pot here i think its important that your plan includes something that he can interpret as you getting way out of line. im not really sure if stacking of, trying to bait him like this, is worthwhile or not but i guess what im saying is if i am stacking off here im making sure the betting includes something like this.

[PassiveCaller]

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What could he have, K7 or a bluff or 77. A3 A7 K3 all seem weird because of small hand combos and it's weird that he'd play them that way. 77 makes the most sense, and then K7, and also a bluff seem possible. Your c/r the turn line seems like "okay I have a set, let's play it fast and hope for the best" thinking.

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This is what my rambling was getting at.

[durrrr]

check the river, evaluate after his bet, possibly c/r allin, possibly just call. If you determine that your probably ahead after his bet, c/r allin- even if he is a good thinking player who realizes you have a strong hand to call his raise on a k73 board, he is gonna sit there cursing at his computer wondering what u have to check call turn, and c/r allin the river there (the only possible hand is really 33/kq, and yet im sure this isnt ur standard set line) I think he will try and catch your bluff a decent amount of the time. Also if he full-pots the river, i think you can just call easily. Lastly, if you full pot the river, he may fold KQ, however if you check he may full-pot it with kq hoping you call w/ KJ,k7etc. (or w/e else he thinks you have). If you lead for 4k on this river you're in an extremely ugly spot if he raises


EDIT: also hands of his that dont value bet, were probably not calling much of a bet (in general this isnt true as people like their call button)
Even if you were guaranteed that your hand was always good here, i think checking and calling would be more +EV than any bet.

[riverboatking]

i think it is unlikely villian has a set.
the board is so uncoordinated its hard to represent a draw by raising, which is a great way to play sets.

lead river for ~3500.

[TheWorstPlayer]

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Checkraise the turn.

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I don't understand. I thought your biggest leak was check/raising the turn. And now you advocate it? I liked the reasoning in the leak thread better. Check/raising this turn seems bad. Let's worse hands off too easy.