NFL Team Rankings

[BadBoyBenny]

They beat the Steelers. And they have one of the toughest schedules. Does anyone here think the Browns are better?

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They beat the Steelers. And they have one of the toughest schedules. Does anyone here think the Browns are better?

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I definetly know the Browns have a better defense. I am very down on the Pats this year. They lost to an overrated Panthers team. Then SD and Denver made them look very mediocre.

[kschellenger]

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What's your point?

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These really are the best 16 teams in football right now.

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no way. Detroit is not a top 16 team. Atlanta should be higher. Chicago is not the 8th best team.

[lastchance]

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After Week 7:

2.227 Indianapolis
1.639 Tampa Bay (uh... no)
1.621 Jacksonville
1.566 Pittsburgh
1.413 Seattle (Seattle isn't a top 5 team, top 10, sure, but not top 5)
1.407 Washington (I think Washington is for real, but they're not this good)
1.366 Denver
1.338 Chicago (yeah, overrated)
1.286 Cincinnati (a loss to pittsburgh means nothing)
1.210 Dallas
1.188 San Diego (they've had to face a killer schedule, you know LT + Gates is godlike)
1.131 Philadelphia
1.038 NY Giants
0.927 Atlanta
0.914 Kansas City (I'd bump this team up a few spots)
0.677 Detroit
0.461 Cleveland
0.424 New England (this is a weird team right now, we know they're good, but they haven't played like it)
0.412 Oakland
0.386 Carolina
0.159 Green Bay
0.126 Miami
-0.133 Baltimore
-0.251 Arizona
-0.358 Buffalo
-0.388 NY Jets
-0.460 St. Louis
-0.478 Tennesee
-0.668 Minnesota
-0.998 New Orleans
-1.518 Houston
-1.788 San Francisco

Also, teams who have played the toughest schedule so far (based only on oposing teams average wins):
4.67 Jacksonville
4.33 Houston
4.00 San Francisco
3.83 New England
3.83 Miami

Those with the easy schedules so far:
2.00 Indianapolis (how does this happen?)
2.17 Tampa Bay
2.17 Carolina
2.43 Cincinnati
2.57 Buffalo

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All-in-all, I don't think this is too far off, but I doubt it's as good as FO or Sagarin.

[mblax10]

Have you considered trying to factor home/road games into your system?

[NoChance]

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2.227 Indianapolis
1.639 Tampa Bay (uh... no)
1.621 Jacksonville
1.566 Pittsburgh
1.413 Seattle (Seattle isn't a top 5 team, top 10, sure, but not top 5)
1.407 Washington (I think Washington is for real, but they're not this good)
1.366 Denver
1.338 Chicago (yeah, overrated)
1.286 Cincinnati (a loss to pittsburgh means nothing)
1.210 Dallas
1.188 San Diego (they've had to face a killer schedule, you know LT + Gates is godlike)
1.131 Philadelphia
1.038 NY Giants
0.927 Atlanta
0.914 Kansas City (I'd bump this team up a few spots)
0.677 Detroit
0.461 Cleveland
0.424 New England (this is a weird team right now, we know they're good, but they haven't played like it)
0.412 Oakland
0.386 Carolina
0.159 Green Bay
0.126 Miami
-0.133 Baltimore
-0.251 Arizona
-0.358 Buffalo
-0.388 NY Jets
-0.460 St. Louis
-0.478 Tennesee
-0.668 Minnesota
-0.998 New Orleans
-1.518 Houston
-1.788 San Francisco

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Some of your comments make sense but some don't. For example, I aggree that at the END of the year, Tampa Bay will not be ranked that high. But, if you consider what they have done to date, the ranking makes sense. I expect them to fall a little in the coming weeks as they play tougher opponents and adjust to a different starting qurterback. You could say similar things about Seattle and Chicago. They have had easier schedules also. I think Washington and Jacksonville are for real. They have played tougher schedules and have come out the best of it so far.

The thing I find interesting is the rating that it gives for Indianapolis. They are at 2.227 and have been caosting through their schedule so far. They will have a more difficult second half af the season. Now for the surprising part: New England's rating for the ENTIRE year last year is higher than Indy's rating is so far this year. That just shows you how good New England was last year. I've said it before, I truly think last year was by far their most impressive year during their run and they did it with key injuries also.

Again, just keep in mind that the ratings will tighten as more games are played. I don't know how to figure home/away into the formula but in the end it should even out anyway. I do think there may some extra weight in there when teams get blown out but as they play more games, each game means less when averaged in with the rest of them. Give it some time and see what happens. Looking at last year's final ratings, it looks pretty good.

The reason I made this spreadsheet a while back was to try and look for a measure of how a team played versus it's competition rather than just looking at win/loss records. I was trying to find something that would help me find advantages when making wagers. It has served it's purpose and I was only posting these to generate discussion. Teams can be ranked in many different ways. I just offer you one way. Take it for what it's worth. It works for me.

[NoChance]

After Week 8:

More for everyone to argue about. Jacksonville, Washington, and Tampa Bay all dropped just like most of you said. Giants now seem to be the next one to fall but probably not this week.

2.330 Indianapolis
1.685 NY Giants
1.652 Denver
1.476 Pittsburgh
1.434 Cincinnati
1.370 Dallas
1.366 Seattle
1.331 San Diego
1.301 Jacksonville
1.280 Chicago
1.127 Tampa Bay
0.902 Washington
0.827 Atlanta
0.724 Kansas City
0.641 New England
0.638 Philadelphia
0.582 Detroit
0.551 Carolina
0.470 Oakland
0.430 Miami
0.160 Green Bay
0.084 Cleveland
0.011 Baltimore
-0.216 St. Louis
-0.329 Buffalo
-0.357 Arizona
-0.402 NY Jets
-0.566 Tennesee
-1.001 Minnesota
-1.020 New Orleans
-1.261 Houston
-1.427 San Francisco

[BadBoyBenny]

These are looking more reasonable as each week goes by.

[NoChance]

Not really much change this week other than Carolina moving up a bit and Tampa Bay continuing to fall.

After Week 9:

2.304 Indianapolis
1.684 NY Giants
1.642 Denver
1.611 Pittsburgh
1.561 Cincinnati
1.400 Seattle
1.367 Dallas
1.239 Jacksonville
1.224 San Diego
1.172 Chicago
1.052 Washington
1.041 Atlanta
0.850 Carolina
0.780 Kansas City
0.709 Tampa Bay
0.543 New England
0.477 Philadelphia
0.421 Miami
0.331 Oakland
0.219 Cleveland
0.212 Green Bay
0.061 Detroit
-0.023 Baltimore
-0.173 St. Louis
-0.379 Buffalo
-0.385 Arizona
-0.392 NY Jets
-0.654 Tennesee
-0.661 Minnesota
-0.929 New Orleans
-1.150 Houston
-1.319 San Francisco

[NoChance]

The Giants fall a few spots and Carolina just keeps climbing.

After week 10:

2.145 Indianapolis
1.723 Denver
1.651 Pittsburgh
1.605 Cincinnati
1.500 Seattle
1.481 Jacksonville
1.351 NY Giants
1.318 Dallas
1.217 Carolina
1.179 Chicago
1.145 San Diego
0.880 Washington
0.805 Atlanta
0.690 Tampa Bay
0.683 New England
0.517 Green Bay
0.498 Kansas City
0.431 Philadelphia
0.251 Miami
0.204 Detroit
0.170 Oakland
0.093 Cleveland
0.001 Buffalo
-0.160 St. Louis
-0.200 Minnesota
-0.357 Baltimore
-0.498 Arizona
-0.578 NY Jets
-0.716 Tennessee
-0.911 Houston
-0.918 New Orleans
-1.259 San Francisco