AA trips, counting outs on the turn

DavidC · #1 02-23-2005, 03:42 PM

Disclaimer: I'm not saying I'm behind, but if I were behind, then I would like to know how many outs I have.

Obviously, the action on the turn before it comes back to you has a great deal of influence on your supposition for that number.

I think that if I am indeed behind, to someone (not necessarily the turn bettor), then I have:

2 aces
3x3 = 9 for the other cards.

11 total so far.

Less probably 2.5 for people who've paired them up (there's probably some people in here with QQ-TT).

So maybe 8.5 outs.

Does that seem fair, or a little low?

---

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero raises, 3 folds, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 raises, Hero 3-bets, SB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 caps, Hero calls, SB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (16.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises...

EDIT: HAND TRUNCATED, DISCLAIMER ADDED.

gvibes · #2 02-23-2005, 03:46 PM

Are you sure you're behind on the turn? Evidently not, since you raised (unless you put MP1 on a set without spades, and are trying to chase out crappy single spades). MP1 would be playing a non-nut flush quite aggressively if that was what he had.

The betting out again when the board pairs makes me think he had a lower set.

DavidC · #3 02-23-2005, 04:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Are you sure you're behind on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not even suggesting it.

I'm going to edit my post to try to make the intent a little more clear.

DavidC · #4 02-28-2005, 08:20 PM

I'd like to bump the thread.

I want to know what my chances are of hitting my boat, given the action.

I don't necessarily need the boat, I just want to know what the chances are.

Edit: And since there are only 4 aces in the deck, please remove one out from my original starting point. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

sin808 · #5 02-28-2005, 08:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to bump the thread.

I want to know what my chances are of hitting my boat, given the action.

I don't necessarily need the boat, I just want to know what the chances are.

[/ QUOTE ]
Let me know if I'm not understanding your question.
The previous action has exactly zero influence on whether or not you hit a boat on the river. If you count 10 outs to a FH or better your 3.60:1 to hit.

Shillx · #6 02-28-2005, 08:30 PM

A) The turn is getting capped. You WANT the turn to get capped I should say.
B) You have 10 outs if someone has a flush.

Brad

DavidC · #7 03-01-2005, 12:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
B) You have 10 outs if someone has a flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's crazy.

If someone had a pair (other than a pp) before now, then I have less than 10 outs.

Entity · #8 03-01-2005, 12:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
B) You have 10 outs if someone has a flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's crazy.

If someone had a pair (other than a pp) before now, then I have less than 10 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

You count outs based on unknown cards, though.

DavidC · #9 03-01-2005, 01:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You count outs based on unknown cards, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, we don't.

Let's say we're against an opponent who only will raise with AA, but will raise with AA, no matter the board. He'll call with everything else, no matter the board.

We have AK, we paired our K on the flop. We bet, he raises.

We haven't seen his cards.

How many outs do we have? 5 or 2?

Obviously 2.

This is an extreme example, but you do have to account for what these guys might have, and just because you're trying to beat a flush, doesn't mean that all the other people in the hand who have shown that they have SOMETHING, haven't paired the board at all.

One of them had to, at the very least. There was heavy action on the flop. If 1 paired the board, then I've got 9 outs, if two then I've got 8, etc.

There's got to be a statistical way of measuring how many are likely to have paired, given the action.

Anyways... that's all I'm saying. I'm not trying to invent some crazy new way or playing poker or something, but you do have to think about these things.

I'm just curious about whether other people have thought of this before, how we can figure out our chance for winning, and whether or not it's practical to do so in the course of a hand.

In my first post in this thread I hinted that I didn't have 10 outs. In my bump I stated it, and now I've explained it.

When you say that you MUST believe yourself to have 10 outs, because you haven't physically seen their cards, you're saying that you have to ignore the action in a hand.

You're a respected poster here, by others and myself. You've helped me on a number of hands in the past, but I think I'm right on this one.

When I said Shill was being crazy, I was just a little frustrated at him missing my "I DO NOT have 10 outs" post in this thread... perhaps he didn't see the bottom of the thread before posting, though.

Much respect (though a little frustration),
Dave.

----------------------

However, I will say one more thing. Good did come out of your response.

You indicated that there is indeed a denominator in equity!

(You mentioned unknown cards.)

If I say that I have 9 outs, then I am no longer drawing to 10/46, nor 9/46, but 9/45.

I appreciate your insight on this: I'd missed it.

Actually, a guy on perlmonks.org was trying to tell me this a long time ago, but I didn't really understand it at the time (I made a little program there to produce a text file of the percentages of different outs coming in on each street and on them coming in on either street).

--Dave.

(Edit: The difference between 9/45 and 9/46 is less than a percent, but still a cool observation.)

(Edit 2: Hmm... I appeared that I actually stated when I posted, bumped when I bumped, and explained now... sorry about that.)

Entity · #10 03-01-2005, 02:08 AM

David,

First of all, you messed up in your first example -- there is only one Ace left in the deck.

I completely understand what you're saying, but I don't see much practicality to it at all. Counting outs is never an exact science when we're at the table. Sure, in your example, we'll have something like 9ish outs sometimes when we're behind. Sometimes, though, we'll have 10. If you want an exact answer to how many outs you have, you aren't going to get it, because no one knows.

Unless you can concretely rule a card as being out there, the best you can do is a rough guesstimate; this is obviously what you're trying to allude to, but it's not really that much of a revelation.

The reason we say "10" is because it's the closest to a reasonable number anyone can come up with quickly.

Let's ask the following question: you hold A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on a 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] board. It's a 6-way pot and was capped on the flop. What are your odds of hitting the winning hand by the river?

Rob