FPS or appropriate flop smoothcall?

[einbert]

Note that MP2 is all-in after the flop action, making the pot effectively heads up. Based on the SB's VPIP (fairly tight at ~20) and PFR of ~5, I figured that I was either way ahead or way behind on the flop. I thusly took the "WA or WB" line planning to use my positional advantage to put one bet in on each street. I also felt that just calling the flop would make SB more likely to be suspicious and call down with maybe KK. I also wasn't worried about any 8- or 9-outers on the flop due to its texture. Was my play appropriate, or should I have gone ahead and raised this flop?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB caps</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (17 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

River: (11.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I figured that I was either way ahead or way behind on the flop. I thusly took the "WA or WB" line planning to use my positional advantage to put one bet in on each street.

[/ QUOTE ]
I like it!

[JordanIB]

Does this mean you're folding to a turn or river raise?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I figured that I was either way ahead or way behind on the flop. I thusly took the "WA or WB" line planning to use my positional advantage to put one bet in on each street.

[/ QUOTE ]
I like it!

[/ QUOTE ]

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Does this mean you're folding to a turn or river raise?


[/ QUOTE ]
No, I'll have to call crying.

The only time I would raise preflop is when it's safe to fold the turn UI if I got 3-betted after my flop raise.

[einbert]

I was planning to call down if raised on the turn or river.

If raised on the turn, it would cost me 2BB to see a showdown so I would be getting about 5-1. Counting the times villian has two pair (which I am getting odds to draw against) I think this is an okay calldown.

On the river, I would have probably called a raise as well, getting ~13-1 from the pot. The only hands I can see villian legitimately playing this way are K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or AJ, and even then I don't see villain capping PF then check-calling the flop.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
If raised on the turn, it would cost me 2BB to see a showdown so I would be getting about 5-1. Counting the times villian has two pair (which I am getting odds to draw against) I think this is an okay calldown.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is the way to reason (quite hard to do it on the fly though...):

Looking at his numbers, these are his capping hands: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK. (he'll never flop 2 pair here)

Counting numbers of possible hands (seeing the flop):
AA: 1
KK: 3
QQ: 3
JJ: 6
AK: 6

So, what hands will he check/raise the turn with? AA, AK and QQ (if he's not bluffing which he could be doing. Since you appeard weak on the flop he could bluff KK). So, you're not ahead of any of these hands, but you'll split to AK.

Hands you'll split against: 6 (AK)
Hands you'll be drawing dead to: 4 (AA+QQ)

If you call down from the turn you'll lose 2BB 40% of the times and win 4.75BB 60% of the times. Which makes it an easy calldown.

There are some aspects this calculation neglects (won't make a big difference):
-He might have capped with another hand
-He might bluff the turn
-He is more likely to go for a turn check/raise with a set than with TPTK.

A thing that's important is that you have enough hands on the opponents in your PT database to read his preflop capping hands. (if the sample is to small it could be misguiding)

[ QUOTE ]
On the river, I would have probably called a raise as well, getting ~13-1 from the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
Calling the river getting 1:13 is easy.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
On the river, I would have probably called a raise as well, getting ~13-1 from the pot. The only hands I can see villian legitimately playing this way are K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or AJ, and even then I don't see villain capping PF then check-calling the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
He's not likely to hold K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] while you're holding the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[btspider]

when did UTG+1 fold?

yeah, one bet per street is reasonable if HU.
you are not folding anywhere in this hand.