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#82
11-04-2005, 07:56 PM
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Re: Buying Kane\'s Hand History Database
Yeah I gotta agree. A few months ago I had a 13 or 14 BB/100 winrate at NL50 at 40K hands. By 50K it was 7.??BB. I would say after 100K losing a few buyins will have a pretty small effect on your winrate.
One way to test it a little would be to see what losing 2 buyins does to a 10BB/100 WR after 10K, 40K, 100K, and 200K hands 
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#83
11-04-2005, 08:24 PM
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Re: Buying Kane\'s Hand History Database
so.... he's selling this prized database for $350...
ie: a "normal" pre-flop raise in the UB $50/$100 game which he's tearing up...... Why bother dude? If it's that insignificant to you then burn a copy for whomever wants one. If it's that awesome then charge a hell of a lot more. do you need the money? or just the attention?
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#84
11-04-2005, 08:26 PM
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Re: Buying Kane\'s Hand History Database
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I gotta agree. A few months ago I had a 13 or 14 BB/100 winrate at NL50 at 40K hands. By 50K it was 7.??BB. I would say after 100K losing a few buyins will have a pretty small effect on your winrate. One way to test it a little would be to see what losing 2 buyins does to a 10BB/100 WR after 10K, 40K, 100K, and 200K hands [/ QUOTE ] Winning 50 PTBB (so 100x the big blind, or one stack) will bump your winrate 1BB/100 over 5K hands. 2 stacks would be 1BB/100 over 10K hands. Note that if you get 1:1 on your stack the difference between winning and losing that pot will be 1BB/100 over 10K hands.
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#86
11-04-2005, 08:39 PM
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Re: Buying Kane\'s Hand History Database
[ QUOTE ]
so.... he's selling this prized database for $350... ie: a "normal" pre-flop raise in the UB $50/$100 game which he's tearing up...... Why bother dude? If it's that insignificant to you then burn a copy for whomever wants one. If it's that awesome then charge a hell of a lot more. do you need the money? or just the attention? [/ QUOTE ] This post is retarded. He doesn't NEED the money, he just wants it. Never hurts to make a few easy bucks on the side. You can buy a lot of stuff for $350, even when you have $500K in the bank.
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#87
11-04-2005, 09:31 PM
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Re: Buying Kane\'s Hand History Database
He's probably lying about his winrate, but that didn't stop everyone from having a discussion about it.
This is pretty simple stuff. The higher you go the more complicated strategies players are using. They start taking different lines with the same hands on the same boards facing the same action. The % of the time they attempt a check-raise with X vs. Y on a board of ABC vs. a specific opponent will change depending on the prior 40-60 hands, which could have furcated countless different ways for the same exact reason. Hand ranges are constantly in flux, but the players are smart enough that the hand ranges rarely interact in such a way as to give one player an enormous edge. Edges are small. They go back and forth. It takes a long, long time to see who's a better player. Low buyin NL games are a little different. I'll let you figure out why. One more thing. If the conceptual framework isn't there to take in and digest Kane's database it is entirely useless to you. But if the conceptual framework is there you'd already be capable of cleaning up the lower buyin games (you'd just need grist (hands) for the mill (your brain)) and you wouldn't need his database in the first place. Every decision in poker requires nothing more than some deductive reasoning and a little bit of mathematical intuition. You check half the time in certain spots for a reason, and the reason is easily seen if you understand how to exploit the tendencies of a random opponent (or avoid being exploited yourself). But hey, give the rich man more money!
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#88
11-04-2005, 09:40 PM
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Re: Buying Kane\'s Hand History Database
This is hilarious, I thought other good players had winrates similar to mine. I haven't had a losing day in 40 days.
All I can tell you is that I swear my winrate is right about 11. I don't feel like I'm running particularly good. I get two outed with one card to go just like the rest of you. My average game size is between four and five people. And I am a notch better than all the regular high volume players and I destroy the occasional fish that comes. I have a good amount of experience playing heads up with Prahlad when he occassionaly played the 10/25 on UB like 3 or 4 months ago.
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#90
11-04-2005, 09:43 PM
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Re: Buying Kane\'s Hand History Database
Just posted this in another thread. That may answer your question.
I did a quick calculation and a win rate of 3PTBB/100 means that there is 99% chance than Kane's true win rate is between .8 and 5.2 assuming a standard deviation of 38.27 (mine). Of course there are many factors that stats neglect like the fact that sometimes games are far easier, for example when it is first spread on a site. Those numbers show that it is difficult to prove that someone is supposed to win at a given limit.
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