Can Party Poker 4th and 5th street cards be predicted?

[act]

Here are some hands (played in sequence of course).
Can you predict the turn and river on the last?

** Dealing Flop ** : [ 8h, Kd, 5d ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 8d ]
** Dealing River ** : [ Kc ]
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Jc, 9c, 5d ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 2c ]
** Dealing River ** : [ Qd ]
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 2h, 4d, 2c ]
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Jh, 7s, 5c ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Jd ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 4d ]
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 6d, As, 6s ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Ad ]
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 5c, Kd, 4h ]
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 9d, 9h, 5c ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 9c ]
** Dealing River ** : [ Qh ]
** Dealing Flop ** : [ As, 7s, Kd ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 3c ]
** Dealing Flop ** : [ As, 3s, Td ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Jc ]
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Js, 3d, 9h ]
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 7s, Qd, Ad ]
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 7c, 5d, Jh ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 4c ]
** Dealing River ** : [ Td ]
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Th, Ac, 8c ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Qd ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 5h ]
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 6s, Js, Qc ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 8d ]
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 9c, 9h, Jc ]

[Cubswin]

Look at Ulysses 'guesses' using his method and look at the actual turn and river cards. This is pretty amazing. I think we should try to keep this info under wraps. This system could be worth millions.

Hand 1: Ulysses guess 6h Tc, actual results 6h 9c
Hand 2: Ulysses guess Kd 8s, actual results Kh 8s
Hand 3: Ulysses guess 2c Jh, actual results 4c Jh


***** Hand History for Game 356774231 *****
3/6 TEXASHTGAMETABLE (LIMIT) - TUE JAN 27 05:09:20 EST 2004
Table Strawberries (Real Money) -- Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: pissinriver ( $125)
Seat 2: granadino ( $188)
Seat 3: Rocketbob ( $56)
Seat 4: dooda4ever ( $106.50)
Seat 5: fum293 ( $70.50)
Seat 6: Carcy420 ( $264)
Seat 7: AndyGibb ( $134)
Seat 8: fullboat37 ( $125)
Seat 9: LukeMintzas ( $23)
Seat 10: sauceisboss ( $118.50)
AndyGibb posts small blind (1)
fullboat37 posts big blind (3)
fum293 posts big blind + dead (4)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to sauceisboss [ Ah, Ad ]
LukeMintzas calls (3)
sauceisboss raises (6) to 6
pissinriver calls (6)
granadino folds.
Rocketbob folds.
dooda4ever folds.
fum293 calls (3)
Carcy420 calls (6)
AndyGibb raises (8) to 9
fullboat37 calls (6)
LukeMintzas raises (9) to 12
sauceisboss calls (6)
pissinriver folds.
fum293 calls (6)
Carcy420 calls (6)
AndyGibb calls (3)
fullboat37 calls (3)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Js, 2d, 4s ]
AndyGibb bets (3)
fullboat37 folds.
LukeMintzas raises (6) to 6
sauceisboss raises (9) to 9
fum293 calls (9)
Carcy420 folds.
AndyGibb calls (6)
LukeMintzas raises (5) to 11
LukeMintzas calls all-In.
sauceisboss calls (2)
fum293 calls (2)
AndyGibb calls (2)
Creating Main Pot with $120 with LukeMintzas
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 6h ]
AndyGibb checks.
sauceisboss bets (6)
fum293 calls (6)
AndyGibb calls (6)
** Dealing River ** : [ 9c ]
AndyGibb checks.
sauceisboss bets (6)
fum293 calls (6)
AndyGibb calls (6)
** Summary **
Main Pot: $120 | Side Pot 1: $36 | Rake: $3
Board: [ Js 2d 4s 6h 9c ]
pissinriver balance $119, lost $6 (folded)
granadino balance $188, didn't bet (folded)
Rocketbob balance $56, didn't bet (folded)
dooda4ever balance $306.50, didn't bet (folded)
fum293 balance $34.50, lost $36 [ Kd Jh ] [ a pair of jacks -- Kd,Jh,Js,9c,6h ]
Carcy420 balance $252, lost $12 (folded)
AndyGibb balance $99, lost $35 [ Qh Qs ] [ a pair of queens -- Qh,Qs,Js,9c,6h ]
fullboat37 balance $113, lost $12 (folded)
LukeMintzas balance $0, lost $23 [ Td Jd ] [ a pair of jacks -- Jd,Js,Td,9c,6h ]
sauceisboss balance $239.50, bet $35, collected $156, net +$121 [ Ah Ad ] [ a pair of aces -- Ah,Ad,Js,9c,6h ]

***** Hand History for Game 334267446 *****
3/6 TEXASHTGAMETABLE (LIMIT) - WED JAN 14 23:41:38 EST 2004
Table Card Room Table 2687 (Real Money) -- Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: A11754 ( $360.50)
Seat 2: EVIFOTECA ( $173)
Seat 3: azack ( $199.50)
Seat 4: TheFeez ( $101)
Seat 5: Drant ( $146)
Seat 7: ParisBimbo ( $80)
Seat 8: coach2040 ( $106)
Seat 9: MovieTitan ( $140)
Seat 10: sauceisboss ( $112)
ParisBimbo posts small blind (1)
coach2040 posts big blind (3)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to sauceisboss [ Ac, Kc ]
MovieTitan calls (3)
sauceisboss raises (6) to 6
A11754 folds.
EVIFOTECA folds.
azack calls (6)
TheFeez folds.
Drant folds.
ParisBimbo folds.
coach2040 calls (3)
MovieTitan calls (3)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 3h, 9c, 2s ]
coach2040 checks.
MovieTitan checks.
sauceisboss bets (3)
azack calls (3)
coach2040 folds.
MovieTitan folds.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Kh ]
sauceisboss bets (6)
azack raises (12) to 12
sauceisboss calls (6)
** Dealing River ** : [ 8s ]
sauceisboss checks.
azack bets (6)
sauceisboss calls (6)
** Summary **
Main Pot: $64 | Rake: $3
Board: [ 3h 9c 2s Kh 8s ]
A11754 balance $360.50, didn't bet (folded)
EVIFOTECA balance $173, didn't bet (folded)
azack balance $172.50, lost $27 [ 7h Ah ] [ high card ace -- Ah,Kh,9c,8s,7h ]
TheFeez balance $101, didn't bet (folded)
Drant balance $146, didn't bet (folded)
dtboland balance $150, sits out
ParisBimbo balance $79, lost $1 (folded)
coach2040 balance $100, lost $6 (folded)
MovieTitan balance $134, lost $6 (folded)
sauceisboss balance $149, bet $27, collected $64, net +$37 [ Ac Kc ] [ a pair of kings -- Ac,Kc,Kh,9c,8s ]

***** Hand History for Game 357514131 *****
3/6 TEXASHTGAMETABLE (LIMIT) - TUE JAN 27 17:58:46 EST 2004
Table Xanadu (Real Money) -- Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: korgmonkey ( $35)
Seat 2: sauceisboss ( $190)
Seat 3: LUCKITO ( $115.50)
Seat 4: Zestiness ( $50.50)
Seat 5: tnl113 ( $41)
Seat 6: dooda4ever ( $342.50)
Seat 8: NJExpos ( $152.50)
Seat 9: ColorMeBest ( $160.50)
Seat 10: svendamien ( $134)
korgmonkey posts small blind (1)
sauceisboss posts big blind (3)
tnl113 posts big blind (3)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to sauceisboss [ Kd, Kh ]
LUCKITO raises (6) to 6
Zestiness folds.
tnl113 calls (3)
dooda4ever folds.
NJExpos folds.
ColorMeBest folds.
svendamien folds.
korgmonkey calls (5)
sauceisboss raises (6) to 9
LUCKITO calls (3)
tnl113 calls (3)
korgmonkey calls (3)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Ks, Qs, 5d ]
korgmonkey checks.
sauceisboss bets (3)
LUCKITO calls (3)
tnl113 raises (6) to 6
korgmonkey folds.
sauceisboss raises (6) to 9
LUCKITO folds.
tnl113 calls (3)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 4c ]
sauceisboss bets (6)
tnl113 raises (12) to 12
sauceisboss raises (12) to 18
tnl113 raises (11) to 23
tnl113 calls all-In.
sauceisboss calls (5)
** Dealing River ** : [ Jh ]
Creating Main Pot with $100 with tnl113
** Summary **
Main Pot: $100 | | Rake: $3
Board: [ Ks Qs 5d 4c Jh ]
korgmonkey balance $26, lost $9 (folded)
sauceisboss balance $249, bet $41, collected $100, net +$59 [ Kd Kh ] [ three of a kind, kings -- Kd,Kh,Ks,Qs,Jh ]
LUCKITO balance $103.50, lost $12 (folded)
Zestiness balance $50.50, didn't bet (folded)
tnl113 balance $0, lost $41 [ 5s Qd ] [ two pairs, queens and fives -- Ks,Qd,Qs,5s,5d ]
dooda4ever balance $342.50, didn't bet (folded)
beta7777 balance $243, sits out
NJExpos balance $152.50, didn't bet (folded)
ColorMeBest balance $160.50, didn't bet (folded)
svendamien balance $134, didn't bet (folded)

[dm34]

Either this is an elaborate hoax, or I am very, very scared.

[jmark]

I replay all hands from my last session on my wall. I have about 5000 decks of cards that I tack up in the order the cards came out. Then I connect them with lines and circle patterns that I found. The advantage to this is that you can also find secret codes Party Poker is sending to the Russians. My CIA contact told me not to tell you, but I have a beautiful mind and I want everyone to know.

[Ed Miller]

These are very impressive a priori results. Ulysses must have spent hundreds of hours gathering his background database.

[Ulysses]

The pattern involves all cards dealt, not just the board cards. So, in this case with 15 flops you know at least 30 other cards (the cards you were dealt) and perhaps as many as 15 to 30 additional cards from the hands shown at showdown (since the hand history lets you see all of those hands) at the 6 rivers. Without all of those cards, the analysis is meaningless.

I've already responded to one "Challenge" above - let's see how I do on that one.

If you provide the full info regarding cards dealt in this sequence, I'll consider running this sequence, but I might not as it's just a waste of my time at this point unless you're a serious bidder.

FYI, for all serious bidders I have had them send me a 100 hand history sequence from Party where they delete the turn and river from the last 10 hands. I then tell them what those cards will be. I have already provided this "proof" to 8 serious bidders. If you or anyone else are also a serious bidder I am more than willing to do the same.

[fluff]

I have now recieved several PMs offering to purchase the program I am writing. Instead of addressing them one by one, I think I would do it here.

First of all, my program is at a very early stage. It is doing ok for now, but most of the time I have to "baby-sit" it to see how it does in case of bugs, etc. You don't want this program at this stage, since a bug that you do not catch in time can drain your entire buy-in.

Secondly, and more importantly, once this program works its worth will be inversely proportional to how many other people are out there using the same or similar programs. If a lot of people use this program, then obviously no one can win. If I sell this program to even one person, there is nothing preventing that person to re-sell it to hundreds of others (discounting software ID keys that are easily cracked anyway). Besides there are already competing programmers working on this, as you can see from the other posts here.

Thirdly, this program stands to make massive amounts of money for me. If the on-line poker explosion continues at the current pace, I project obscene amounts of money for very little work. Why would I need more money by selling this program? (As a side point: always be wary of people selling get-rich schemes such as you might have seen on TV or junk-mailed to you. If this get-rich scheme worked so well, why on earth are you *selling* it to perfect strangers?)

And finally, if for some unforseen reason I decide to sell this (and I emphasize "unforseen" because truly I can not see any reason why I would), it will not be for a "nominal amount" (as a kind person offered in a PM). In fact it will be for a tremendous amount. Amounts I could retire on. Comfortably. On my private island in the Carribean. Where the drinks have tiny umbrellas in it. Thank you.

[Ulysses]

Looks like the challenge results were posted while I was writing that response. As I mentioned in my post, if you are a serious bidder and want more detailed proof, I am happy to run any sequence of 100 hand histories.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]

Hand 1: Ulysses guess 6h Tc, actual results 6h 9c
Hand 2: Ulysses guess Kd 8s, actual results Kh 8s
Hand 3: Ulysses guess 2c Jh, actual results 4c Jh

Dealt to sauceisboss [ Ah, Ad ]
Dealt to sauceisboss [ Ac, Kc ]
Dealt to sauceisboss [ Kd, Kh ]


[/ QUOTE ]

I am sure some of you will be quick to point out that I only got 3 of 6 cards exactly right. Please let me point out a few things, though.

First off, in the original challenge, cubswin only provided me with three hand histories and did not provide a sequence prior to those. This is by far the primary reason I only had 50% accuracy here.

Secondly, he did not provide me with his hole cards, which definitely impacts the accuracy as well. Specifically, in the second hand, if I had known that the Kc was out in his hand, the pattern map would have shown the correct Kh instead of the Kd. As it was, I had to take a 50/50 shot at figuring out which King it would be.

Thirdly, note that of the 3 cards I got wrong, I got the correct rank in one (Kd v. Kh and the correct suits Tc v 9c, 4c v 2c in the other two). As I've mentioned, this map is not 100% accurate yet, but you can often gain great benefit simply by knowing things like whether or not a flush is going to make it.

[brassnuts]

[ QUOTE ]
Ya... I saw that movie too. Take your trolling to another thread please. This thread is complicated and OT enough with the penguin game stuff... we don't need charletans like you confusing the issue with false information.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, I am pretty good at sniffing out sarcasm, but since I am new here and am not accustomed to your style, I can only guess that there about 25% chance you are serious. Where's that sarcasm detector someone mentioned earlier?