Josh Beckett to the Red Sox

[sublime]

The Sox almost refused the deal based on health issues with Beckett, and demanded Mota as compensation.

i read that story also. even if thats true, i see it more as the sox playing hardball and extracting as much as possible. beckett was quoted as saying his last start last year was when his velocity was its highest.

mota seems like this years mantei, albeit with more upside. sadly, his bad year last year would have been very welcome on the sox staff.

[sublime]

breakdown of motas season from RMURPH @ SOSH:

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Scanning Mota's game logs from last year shows the following:

- hit the DL in late April (shoulder inflammation)
- got knocked around in his first few appearances after returning
- seemingly got straightened out for a period from mid-June thru early July, going 11 appearances without allowing a run.
- that apparently worked him back into McKeon's good graces, and McKeon started overusing him. Right after the ASB, he had a 5-day stretch where he threw 14/42/0/38/19 pitches. That didn't immediately ruin him, but he never got back the effectiveness of the mid-June to early-July stretch, either.
- he came completely unglued in early September, allowing 7 total ER in 3 straight outings. This was where the shoulder problems were flaring up. Took 5 days off following those bombings, came back for one seven-pitch outing, and shut it down again until the last day of the season.

Conclusions:

- much of his ERA spike as compared to prior years can be correlated to early- and late- season injuries.
- he was unlucky on hit rate and strand rate compared to his prior years.
- he was much better at home (3.60 ERA) than the road (5.91 ERA), furthering the notion that a portion of his career success is rooted in friendly home parks.
- ERA by days of rest:
0 days: 2.16
1 day: 3.98
2 days: 10.67
3+ days: 3.75
- To a lesser degree, that ERA trend for days rest is valid over multiple years as well. This implies that (when healthty) Mota's a guy who wants the ball and thrives on a lot of work, but needs to be monitored closely by Tito and staff so as not to break him. Bit of a conundrum there.

In my eyes, this is a Mantei-like flier... similar upside, but a heck of a lot more likely to realize that upside, and correspondingly less likely to completely blow up.

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in 2003 he was VERY good and 2004 was good also (his periphials remained good after hitting FLA)

last year is above. ill take him [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[DougOzzzz]

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in 2003 he was VERY good and 2004 was good also (his periphials remained good after hitting FLA)

last year is above. ill take him [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

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I guess I can't be too thrilled about a reliever with a career 2 to 1 K/BB ratio who will be 33 and is coming off the worst season in his career.

I've heard that we're getting him for "nothing", but if 2.5-3 mil was nothing, why'd we sign Clement instead of Pedro last year?

[sublime]

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in 2003 he was VERY good and 2004 was good also (his periphials remained good after hitting FLA)

last year is above. ill take him [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I can't be too thrilled about a reliever with a career 2 to 1 K/BB ratio who will be 33 and is coming off the worst season in his career.

I've heard that we're getting him for "nothing", but if 2.5-3 mil was nothing, why'd we sign Clement instead of Pedro last year?

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1 yr x 2.5 vs 3/4 years at 2.5

i am far from excited about the guy, but last report he wasnt involved in the deal and now he is. we gave up a no name prospect to add him. last year showed we can use ANY ML arm in the pen.

the poster who said he was one of the top setup men is stuck in 03.

EDIT: also we have no idea if FLA insisted on him being added to the deal or if it was the RS. he fits the mold of the kind of player the marlins would MOST like to drop. the red sox have the expendable income to take a flier on a guy.

now, 1B and CF please [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]