Play a Hand With the Masters #2 Flop

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
Yawn.... bet what you usually bet when you raise preflop.

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]
I tend to agree with you that the initial decision is not all that interesting. What is interesting is your plan for the rest of the hand if he check-raises or calls you.

For the record, the advantage of a 2/3 pot bet is obvious: it gets more money in the pot when called/raised and our hand is good.

However, I like your analysis, and am now leaning towards a 300 bet. Why don't we make it 350 and call it even [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]?

[renodoc]

[ QUOTE ]
but just because we're going to call his raise, why would we push? that would just make him fold more often, and we want his money in the pot on this hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

I find this part very interesting. Now, I'm not really advocating pushing here, I just threw it out there for discussion.

However, I would have been very happy to take down the blinds with my raise. I would be very happy to take down this pot now with my top two, although I certainly see the logic in continuing the hand. The entire "Fundamental Theorem of Poker" breaks down for me in tournaments sometimes. Sure, I want my money in the pot with the best of it, but i can still lose to the draw and be out of the tournament.

If my opponents never call me, I can never lose...

[A_PLUS]

600 in the pot. Top 2 pair, rainbow board.

The only hands we are behind now are QT and JJ. I will be ignoring AA and KK, b/c they are so unlikely.

BB has a very wide range here. He was getting great odds to call. I would expect,PP AX, KX (usually >6), QXs, unsuited connectors, J9, T8,SCs, and lots of suited 1-2 gappers, etc, etc.

Regardless, from what we know now, our main concern is getting paid off. This isnt a board that many hands are paying us off on, when they completely miss, b/c our range makes it virtually impossible that we are unpaired here.

Checking behind shouldn't fool anyone. The only way we make more money in that case, is if the turn is X, which gives him a smaller 2p.

I am going to bet 250-350, depending on how I played my last few hands. I would be doing this with 100% of my range in this spot.

If I am check raised, I am going to call no matter what. If he min-raises, I still just call, just in case it is a wierd post-oak CR-bluff, b/c I am not afraid of any draws here, so let him bluff again.

That being said, I think a CR most likely means, JJ, AJ, T9, AK, AT, in descending order.

My hope for the hand, is that he has AQ-AT, KQ, JT and is willing to stick around for this and another modest turn bet.

I throw up in my mouth if a Q or T hit the turn, but I dont feel too bad. Any completed straight, will probably go for a CR, and I will be checking behind, calling the river anyway.

General plan: Hope he is willing to call a continuation/probe looking bet. Reavaluate on the turn. Call any CR.

about my range
I think all of the hands, I mentioned are possible (no reads), I obviously think PP, KT+, QT+, JT, AX are most likely

I probably raise to 450. I would put the BB on any JJ-22, aq-a10, suited connectors, royal suited cards. Since I think he would be looking to check raise with aq, a10, aj, kq, kj, and qj, I would not hesitate going all in here if he raised. If he has q10 or jj, so be it.

[Guelph]

Wouldn't the pot be 600 on the flop? (50 + 100 + 275 + 175)

<font color="red">What range of hands do you put the villain on? </font>

Calling 175 from the BB, I think any pair, any broadway, any suited ace-8 or better, any suited connector down to 98. But then again I tend to be loose from the BB.

<font color="red">Do you check or bet? </font>

I bet weak. I want him to think I have a small/medium pair that's trying to steal, but afraid of a reraise.

<font color="red">If you bet, how much and why that amount? </font>

100-150. Make it look like I'm taking one last cheap stab at the pot.

<font color="red">What do you do if he raises you? </font>

All-in? Call. (I'm about 78% to win against the range I gave) Not all-in? Re-raise all-in.

<font color="red">Based on whether you check or bet (and presuming if you bet he calls), what's your plan for the rest of the hand and why? </font>

I think I want to get all my chips in this pot. The hard part is getting them there. I check behind on the turn and overbet the river unless a Q or T hits between now and then, in which case I probably go broke on his straight.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

I tend to agree with you that the initial decision is not all that interesting. What is interesting is your plan for the rest of the hand if he check-raises or calls you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think these are interesting in this context without a helluva lot more information about the player, unless some lengthy reads I missed were mentioned in part 1. The stacks aren't deep enough to get away from this hand on this street otherwise. Getting called and sweating another broadway card can be complicated, but then I think you just induce a bluff and get your chips in anyway. This doesn't seem like a very complicated hand to me.

[ QUOTE ]


However, I would have been very happy to take down the blinds with my raise. I would be very happy to take down this pot now with my top two, although I certainly see the logic in continuing the hand. The entire "Fundamental Theorem of Poker" breaks down for me in tournaments sometimes. Sure, I want my money in the pot with the best of it, but i can still lose to the draw and be out of the tournament.

If my opponents never call me, I can never lose...

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right that the fundamental theorem of poker doesn't apply because FE is more important in tournies. However, we're not talking about a small edge here--in fact, in the early stages, there are few edges that are small enough to warrant this logic. If he's got TJ or something, he's a big dog, and we want our money in with him.

[ZeroPointMachine]

[ QUOTE ]
Explain to me the merit of betting 2/3 over 1/2 here on this rainbow flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually advocate a full pot bet but the reasoning is the same.

We raised UTG. This flop almost can't have missed us. Villian fully expects a bet from us. I see very few hands that he will call 1/2 pot with that he will not call a bigger bet with.

My intuitive estimate goes something like this:

If villian will call 1/2 pot with range X, 2/3 with range (80%)X and full pot with range (75%)X you get:

1/2 pot:X * 325 = 325
2/3 pot.8X * 425) - (.2 * 325) = 275
full pot.75X * 650) - (.2X * 325) - (.05X * 425) = 402

Hmmm... 2/3 actually comes out worse than 1/2 pot but full pot is better than both(given my best guesstimates) .

There are many times this is the only bet you are going to get out of villian. It's not a risk/reward issue because we are more or less committed to the hand. Why not get more chips now? I don't think a 1/2 pot bet is any more likely to induce a bluff than a bigger bet. I actually think the bigger bet is more likely to be raised but that may be based on assumptions of previous play and that this bet would confuse/tempt villain.

Anybody got a better estimate for Villian's range and how often he will call each size bet?

Is this line of analysis practical or useful?

[SossMan]

villians hand is obviously still very wide. He's likely checking that flop 100% of the time, so the range becomes, what would he call w/ preflop. With no reads and an seemingly aggressive player, putting the BB on a range other than "any plausable playable hand" is an excersize in futility.

Pot is 600, I bet the same amount that I would bet if I had 99 on that flop.

t400 to go.

If there were a flush draw on the flop, I might go ahead and pot it.

Making it t400 will make the turn pot t1400 if he flat calls and the hero's stack will be t2k. He will be able to bet 1k on the turn and get the remainder in on the river. Seems like a good payment plan for someone who has Ax or KJ or KQ or AQ or AT.

This hand has yet to get interesting. I'll assume that there is a bet and a call and a ten on the turn.