Sweating a Friend, he makes this fold. Opinions?

[gumpzilla]

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So you will instintively know that I have changed gears on the bubble, as opposed to me playing tight, which I probably have up until that point? I never said that I'd push everytime the SB raised my BB, I said on the bubble, which lasts no more than 15 hands.

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Good point. What reason do you have to think that BB is changing up his tight game now, though?

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Also, I dont think you should be raising if you are going to fold to a reraise, you are essentially saying that the only value TT has here is as a steal, which makes it no different than 27o.

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The emphasis is in that situation. Most of the time TT is probably going to be an excellent hand to be holding onto. And I agree that an initial push or a limp-reraise might be a better play here - the limp-reraise depends on whether you've been limping into his BB at all, I think - though I think raising to 20k isn't horrendous either.



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I have shown the range of hands that he would have (in my opinion) and your equity against them.

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Your first range was incredibly loose for a player that you think of as tight; I can certainly imagine lots of people playing with that range, but not a tight unknown. Also, I didn't say that nobody was trying to give real arguments, just that very few people were.

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Along with the range of hands that he would need to have in order to make this a coinflip (which, along with the dead chips in the pot would still make this a call).

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This is also debatable for a couple of reasons: that range could still be too loose; even if we're getting a coinflip with 1.4-1 odds or so, is that + $EV or just + chip EV? That depends heavily on the payout structure and how likely we are to finish in various places whether we take the pot or fold. My suspicion is that this might actually be closer than it appears, that we have enough chance to finish in the top 3 or 4 even folding that the increased likelihood of a big finish if we bust this guy doesn't necessarily make up for the likely 8-10 finish we get if we miss. If the structure is sufficiently top heavy, then yes, a call is good, but this isn't immediately obvious. This is the main point I'm trying to argue: that this can be a close decision.

As to your last point, there certainly are plenty of players who will think that out in this spot. And if I think he's one of them, then I'll call. But lots of players won't.

[gumpzilla]

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The people who accept that you are at worst 60/40 and still want to fold (with a lot of money in the pot already) are frankly insane.

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Suppose instead we're playing in a satellite, top 9 get seats. In this case it is blazingly obvious that the fold is correct, chip EV be damned, and in fact making any raise whatsoever would almost certainly be a bad play since the Hero would be 99% likely to fold in. So the chip EV isn't the real consideration here.

[Pat Southern]

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The people who accept that you are at worst 60/40 and still want to fold (with a lot of money in the pot already) are frankly insane.

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Suppose instead we're playing in a satellite, top 9 get seats. In this case it is blazingly obvious that the fold is correct, chip EV be damned, and in fact making any raise whatsoever would almost certainly be a bad play since the Hero would be 99% likely to fold in. So the chip EV isn't the real consideration here.

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Suppose 4th place pays out more than 1st, that would change how you play also, but neither situation is applicable here.

[gumpzilla]

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Suppose 4th place pays out more than 1st, that would change how you play also, but neither situation is applicable here.

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Of course, but my point is that chip EV isn't the thing that's ultimately relevant, and the satellite example is the easiest way to show that.

[schwza]

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The people who accept that you are at worst 60/40 and still want to fold (with a lot of money in the pot already) are frankly insane.

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Suppose instead we're playing in a satellite, top 9 get seats. In this case it is blazingly obvious that the fold is correct, chip EV be damned, and in fact making any raise whatsoever would almost certainly be a bad play since the Hero would be 99% likely to fold in. So the chip EV isn't the real consideration here.

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to state the obvious, chipEV is a much better approximation for cashEV here than in a satellite.

as far as i know, there's no easy way to do an ICM calculation where more than 4 spots pay (which is what dethgrind's site supports). so i'm not sure what we can do except wave our hands and say "well, calling [is/isn't] +chipEV enough to overcome our risk aversion."

[gumpzilla]

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as far as i know, there's no easy way to do an ICM calculation where more than 4 spots pay (which is what dethgrind's site supports). so i'm not sure what we can do except wave our hands and say "well, calling [is/isn't] +chipEV enough to overcome our risk aversion."

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Yes, the calculation would be a massive pain in the ass. I have some Mathematica code that I think I got from that site that with some work I could probably modify to do this, but that's more of a project for this weekend.

I think people are taking my satellite comment a little too literally. I'm not trying to say that I think the current situation is like a satellite. I'm just trying to point out that chip EV based reasoning can lead to wrong conclusions in the endgame of a tourney if you ignore the payout structure. And yes, chip EV will be much closer to the truth in this case than in the satellite case, but how good an idea do we have about how close to the truth it really is? This is definitely the point in the tournament where chip EV and $ EV can really start to diverge.

It is probably the case that the payout structure is top heavy enough, in reality, to make calling correct against all but the tightest of ranges. But I don't think it's blazingly obvious. I have seen lots of analysis in the STT forum where some pretty incredible folds from chip EV perspectives turn out to be correct from $ EV perspectives if one puts faith in ICM. The current situation is quite different from a single-table SNG, but the theoretically correct mode of analysis shouldn't differ.

[MLG]

If the buy flipped over AKs you *might* have an argument. If you had a worse hand, like 77 here you *might* have an argument. Might. The fact is that you have 1010 and have just raised a BB who has now pushed. The BB, even if he's tight as a drum has a range which you're even money against. That combined with the fact that there's dead money in the pot makes this an incredibly clear call. If you don't call in these spots with large blinds you are asking to never finish in the top 3.

There are two questions that those who advocate folding should answer.

1. What range of hands will you call this push with?

2. How do you think your opponent would play the following hands in the BB. 55-99/A8-A10.

3. How big a mathematical edge over an opponents range of hands do you need before you will call.

Specific answers.

[gumpzilla]

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2. How do you think your opponent would play the following hands in the BB. 55-99/A8-A10.

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As far as I can tell, this is essentially what the entire debate hinges on. And there are a bunch of variables that are going to determine this, virtually none of which we know.

There has been no mention of how the hero plays, but given that Sobe is making him sound like scared money, it's entirely reasonable to think that he's not bullying as much as he should be. The less hero has been stealing, the tighter BB's range is likely to be. The only clue we have to BB is that he's tight. We don't know how good he is or is not. Is a resteal in his arsenal? Has he made plays like this before? With 9 players getting paid, I'm assuming that we're not talking about a starting field of more than 100 tops, and so it's not like this guy had to wade through a field of 2500 which would be a stronger argument for at least some basic competence.

We have no idea what the average stack tournament wide is, but there's an excellent chance that Hero is still going to be something like 2nd to 4th in chips. Furthermore, the shorties are likely to stay tight to try and crawl up the pay ladder, so I think that it's not true that he can kiss 3rd+ goodbye by folding here. Is the added chance that he comes in 1st-3rd enough to make up for finishing 8-10th when he misses, given that he's already got quite good chances of finishing 5th or higher? It's quite likely but nobody is offering any kind of compelling argument for this, just talking about vomiting.

I'm not even advocating a fold so much as saying that I don't think a fold is always horrendous here, i.e. it can be close given a bunch of factors that we don't really know about. You are extremely unlikely to be in a position where this is a good fold because of how you play. Can we say the same for Hero?

[FrogMouth]

This is a clear fold, no wait, its a clear push!! Absolutly he should have pushed PF, but a limp then re-raise is obviouly the best option.

The only thing that no one has argued was mucking the sb, So we're all at 100% agreement on that.

This whole arguement really shows the differences in player types. Passives fold and wait for another fight, aggressives push and let the chips fall. I don't see a right answer, and unfortunaly I think this hand comes down to a good read on the villan. Just because the villan got junk hands, or scary play in front of him the last 15-20 hands, he "seems tight", this doesn't make him tight. Absent a solid read, who will take the chance, and who will fold?

I'm sure in the long run there may be a clear answer, but this is what bothers me. There is no long run in this situation, how many times will you run into this exact situation against the same type of player? If our Hero runs into this same set of circumstances on the bubble once more lifetime I would be amazed. Even if it happens 2, 3 or 4 more times, he is still subject to the luck of the draw. He could make the theoreticaly correct decision everytime, and the cards could easily do him wrong every time. Or vice versa.

I think it is an interesting dillema, and I liked reading everyone's comments. Unfortunatly, when my time comes, and I'm placed in this spot for the one time in my life, right or wrong, I'm pushing and letting the chips fall.

For me, it all comes down to this: I'd rather loose to his pocket aces, than regret not calling the all in.

[A_PLUS]

For all of the weak tight posters in this thread, you owe me 400$!

I was playing a small garunteed MTT on empire as I cleared my bonus. So we are on the bubble, I get my BB raised from another large stack. I push, thinking "man, this guy might actually fold TT"

Well, my 97s, couldnt handle his AA. The railbirds seemed to enjoy it, thanks