Free Will Philosophy Problem

[edthayer]

Perhaps my original post was misleading; the alien CANNOT see the future, he can only predict it. He has an excellent record, and can predict future events as accurately as a physical being is capable of. This means, however, that he is still a physical being, and cannot break the laws of physics. Also, since there is nothing in the problem about the game being rigged, or the alien using a time machine, it's safe to assume they are not a factor.

With that in mind, someone please tell me what is wrong with this:
1. The past is unchangeable.
2. The alien's decision is made prior to your decision.
3. Therefore taking both boxes maximizes your profit.

The alien's perfect record is irrelevant. He will probably guess correctly about you, but you must remember HE HAS ALREADY GUESSED. Taking only Box 2 because of the alien's record is paramount to folding pocket aces preflop because the last 10 times you had pocket aces, you lost with them.

[JoshuaD]

Does the alien know that I know that he's following the rules?

If so, he knows that I'd make a mental deal with him to only pick the million dollar box, and that I won't break my deal, even though it is technically lower in EV.

Q E D.

[ZeeJustin]

[ QUOTE ]
With that in mind, someone please tell me what is wrong with this:
1. The past is unchangeable.
2. The alien's decision is made prior to your decision.
3. Therefore taking both boxes maximizes your profit.


[/ QUOTE ]

That's basically exactly what I have said, and I can't think of any logical counterargument.

[TStoneMBD]

what if the alien can read your mind?

at the time of setting up the boxes, he sees that you are thinking you will take both boxes or that you are going to flip a coin, so he doesnt give you the million.

unless you can somehow fool yourself into thinking that you will take box 2 without ever saying to yourself that you will actually take both boxes, the alien may very well know what you are planning and will screw you over.

[PairTheBoard]

edthayer:"With that in mind, someone please tell me what is wrong with this:
1. The past is unchangeable.
2. The alien's decision is made prior to your decision.
3. Therefore taking both boxes maximizes your profit."

I really can't get by that argument either. Yet, couldn't you still make that argument even if the alien DID have a Time Machine? The money in the box is still SET IN STONE regardless of your choice. Why not still choose both boxes? Or would you now choose box 2 because you can now see a kind of causitive link between your choice and what's in the box? Yet if the alien's predictive powers are only 99.9% accurate isn't there still a kind of causitive link that just isn't as easy to understand.

I can't really get by your SET IN STONE argument. Yet I also can't get by the observation that if the alien has 99.9% predictive accuracy that continues to hold, while you are choosing both boxes and collecting a Thousand each time your buddy is choosing box 2 and collecting a Million almost every time. Why should the alien's accuracy suddenly fail? And what can you find wrong in this observation?

PairTheBoard

[TStoneMBD]

one thing that i didnt factor in is that i had assumed that you are told prior to the boxes being setup that you will have this choice. if you are suddenly pulled into an alley and are told to choose a box then things change drastically.

if that is the situation then everyone elses arguement makes much more sense to me.

[Vlorg]

I choose box #1 only. That's my Free Will choice.

[Girchuck]

If I chose only box 2 and without opening it put it up for sale on Ebay, how much would you offer for it?

If I chose boxes 1 and 2 and without opening box 2 put it up for sale on Ebay how much would you pay for it?

What do you think would be the difference in the high bid?

[PairTheBoard]

Would the aliens be bidding too?

PairTheBoard

[Girchuck]

I think, I know how to guarantee at least $500,000.
Let's say you are convinced that the alien guesses right 99% of the time. Let's say there are a lot of people convinced that the alien is right 90% of the time or more.
I am going to go ahead and choose box #2 only.
But before I do that, I am going to make $500,000 worth of proposition bets that the alien is wrong about my choice and there is no million in the box. I will give you 1:1 odds. For anyone, convinced that the alien is right this seems like a hugely +EV bet, and I am going to accept large number of small bets, but no more than 500,000, so that betting more than they can afford is not a problem for anyone, and I don't go broke, if the alien is correct.
Is this a good plan? Can I offer worse odds and still get action?