how much can you make and misc thoughts

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Ok that's fine. Online poker is a very young phenomenon

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wrong again. I first played online around 95 or 96, and I have friends who have made the majority of their poker income online for at least 5 years.

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lol Why do you keep attacking things I say? While I am sure you are right that people have been playing online poker for many years, I don't think you could call it a "phenomenon" back in 1995.

The simple fact is that the majority of online winning players today have been playing for less than two years.

And if you don't think that 200k hands a year gets you to the long-run, then I guess we'll agree to disagree.

While many posters here have an extremely valid point about the long-run in poker, I swear some of them would say, if they saw Doyle Brunson keel over dead, "That's too bad, I guess we'll never know if he was a winning player or not."

[Lawrence Ng]

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I know people who are making $200+/hr online who I suspect would have trouble beating, say, the Commerce 40/80 game. Being able to play many games simultaneously and tons of hands at rapid-fire pace at some degree of reasonable proficiency is much more important than actually playing any individual hand really well.

However, many of the people multi-tabling making $100-150/hr who think they can play 40hr/wk and make $200-300k/yr are kidding themselves about their chances of maintaining their earn when they bump up hours, their ability to actually play that many hours, and quite likely the amount of their actual win rate. Having said that, you'd be surprised at the consistent hours some of these kids can put in.


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I use to think that these numbers were highly overestimated, but having experienced myself the last couple of months at the calibre of some online play - especially at the 5/10 level and up even I have to submit defeat to these garangatan hourly rates.

What really got me caved in now is that a few friends and I amalagamated our database from PT together and found that we averaged out well at 2.7 BB/100 hand over half a million hands at the 5/10 SH.

I can only slap myself in the mouth as I preached I would never quit my day job to poker, but this hourly rate and what Diablo's hourly rates at the mid/high limit stakes are is too good to ignore. The opportunity present right now in Poker can't be passed up.

Guess what excuse I gave my boss for having to cut back hours?

Lawrence

[Lawrence Ng]

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Does this depend on how good at being fast you are?

,
Joe Tall

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I think there was a good discussion a while back on the subject that if a poker player were also able to play video games for a long duration (4+ hours) at a time, that they would also make good online multi-tabling poker players.

I play MMORPGS, FPS for hours at a time so playing online for hours a day doesn't mean much except it cuts into my leisure time more for playing my computer games. At 60$/hr right now I think it's worth the sacrifice. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

However, the biggest obstacle for me is that I am so use to playing live that I had to revamp my style completely to multitabling and playing online as there are significant differences.

Lawrence

[Lawrence Ng]

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im not sure if that's true. if theyre beating something like 15-30 between 5-8 tables for that much over a year of consistent (30+ hours a week) online playing that's like 3-5 years or more of my live play. so it's like theyve already reached the long term, at least what my long term will be.

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Mike,

For the last 5 years I averaged about 600 hours per year in a live cardroom. That's 3,000 hours and at about 30 hands an (overestimating a bit here) hour, that's 90,000 hands to which right now I still am not within a 97 percent confidence interval of what my true win rate is. It's in the green all the right, but the long run still hasn't hit yet for me or so my spreadsheet tells me.

Lawrence

[GuyOnTilt]

That's 3,000 hours and at about 30 hands an (overestimating a bit here) hour, that's 900,000 hands

Probably just a typo, but it's only 90,000 which is just nowhere near enough to nail down your winrate with any sort of confidence. I don't have an extensive enough db myself yet, but I've seen db's of solid players who show HUGE discrepencies in their winrates over 50k stretches and a lot more than I expected over 100k stretches.

GoT

[Lawrence Ng]

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One thing to consider is that a lot of players aren't truthful about how well they do. If somebody says they're making $200,000 on the net, or $1,000,000 at Commerce, I think those numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt. Not that it doesn't happen, but I suspect it happens far less often than simply taking people's words for it would indicate.

Also, your original post was talking about how much somebody "could" make. It's one thing to consider a hypothetical and another an actual, which is I think the point you are making. Many players are only about half as good as they think they are and I would suspect they probably only make half as much as they could, or would were they truly as good as their impression of themselves.


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The average west coast 20/40 game is pretty loose. So if a good player were make .75 BB/hr that would still equal to well over ($30 x 8 hrs a day x 300 days a year) $72,000 a year. Being conservative as you say let's make it $60,000 a year which is not too shabby.

I can't imagine however, in a tight game with fewer loose players how this yearly rate could be reached though. I've tracked my play through tighter tougher live games and logged about 400 hours of those and am only averaging .2 BB/hr

Lawrence

[Lawrence Ng]

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That's 3,000 hours and at about 30 hands an (overestimating a bit here) hour, that's 900,000 hands

Probably just a typo, but it's only 90,000 which is just nowhere near enough to nail down your winrate with any sort of confidence.

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Corrected, sorry for the typo.

Thanks GoT.

Lawrence

[TimTimSalabim]

60k in California is damn near poverty level.

[cpk]

I wouldn't say "poverty level," but you're probably going to want to get a roommate. I lived just fine on $30k/year for a while in Seattle, and the cost of living even in LA is not twice as much.

[astroglide]

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wrong again. I first played online around 95 or 96

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maybe irc/chat poker with an agreement to settle up later or something? planetpoker opened in 1998, delta poker shortly afterward. those were the first real ones as far as i know. the web was barely used in 1995, i only remember being able to access it through bbses and that was still mostly for usenet.