How Would You Play This Hand?

[fnord_too]

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I am kind of shocked by the amount of people who say "You cannot let BB draw for free here." This is absurd, if he is drawing it certainly is not for free, since you already bet, and if he is drawing he has compounded his error by raising (which needs to at least raise the suspicion that he has the nut flush).

Also, I have seen people pontificate that BB would never check raise the nuts here. Ludicrous. If he never c/r'd with the nuts his play would give away too much information for him to be what I would term a tough player.

I would be thrilled to be convinced that I am wrong, because I would undoubtedly have learned a lot.

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You are incorrect in complaining about us saying we're allowing him to draw for free by just calling. Yes, we bet, he check-raised us. There is ONE hand that beats us at this point, and a ton of possible draws that have the potential of costing you the pot if you allow your opponent to see the river.

Sometimes people are so consumed with obtaining the maximum value on their hand that in attempting to trap their drawing opponent they become the one trapped in the end, with so much money in the pot.

Yes, it is possible a "tough" opponent would re-raise with the nuts, but I still believe if he did have the nuts he's going to continue to trap you and not push you out of the pot.

His re-raise to me, screams that he's looking for you to lay down and obviously if you don't, for information on what your holding is. He probably believes, based on all the post-flop checking and your bet, that you are on a steal, and he can push you off it and take the pot down right now with his check-raise.

He does not, in my opinion, have this hand won. He may not even have a good draw. But given the number of callers pre-flop he could indeed have any holding, and I don't see a point in risking allowing a scare card to fall and you get bluffed out of the pot or get beat if he does have the draw.

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Come up with a distribution of hands he may have with probabilities. Then for each determine how he reacts to a reraise on the the turn. Then consider likely action for the river on the check given the various river cards that can come. Unless your distribution is comprised 100% of sets, I don't think reraising here is anywhere near the best choice (unless you think this tough opponent is going to spew chips with a weaker hand. If that is the case though, I would not consider the BB tough and would certainly play the hand differently.) You say you don't think he has the hand won (though you do acknowledge that he may), and possibly does not even have a good draw. If that is the case, why let him make a good decision to fold? Why not give him a chance to bet on the end with a worse hand, and NOT give him all your chips when he does have the nuts? I tend to c/r with marginal hands that I want to resolve; I agree that he probably does not have the ace high flush, but even given that you are better off calling and hoping he takes a stab at the end with a lesser hand (again unless you specifically know he has a set, assuming he will fire at the pot about 1/2 the time if he misses and all the times he hits, and you will pay off on the end. This is looking at the worst case scenario, since he will likely make a value/blocking bet on the river with a lot of decent, but lesser hands.)

If a scare card comes, and you called on the turn, you will not likely be facing a huge bet on the river by a hand that beats you. More likely you will face a small bet to inhibit action by a lesser hand, a small bet by a huge hand, or a check by a player who has given up or is looking to check raise a monster. An all in on the river in this hand if you call the turn would be a very odd bet since it would be almost twice the size of the pot.

[West]

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The keys here are what the BB might have and what he thinks you have. Before the flop is dealt, he can have any 2 cards.

On the flop he flat calls your LP bet with several limpers yet to act between you. Thus, a strong but vulnerable hand like a set or two pair is highly unlikely. I'd say his call means 2 overcards, 99, a pair with a big spade kicker, a flush draw.

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Would a tough player really play with 99, or anything less than top pair good kicker, and would he just falt call with that? I can't imagine why he would call with just overcards (unless it was also a flush draw, like QJs). I am wondering if David is going to tell us that the range of hands that the BB will flat call with in these specific circumstances is very limited...

[2ndhandlow]

over bet the pot. 12k.

[knifeandfork]

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Like I said, calling will force him to commit a bet on the river the vast majority of the time. And the vast majority of the time, you have him crushed.[ QUOTE ]


oops i qoute mmyslef stillearning functions sorry


why (honest question) do you think he will be forced to bet the river. lil ol me thinks a tough player (if he sees you as the same) may slowdown, and not bet the river at all if you raise the turn. calling may look a little weak but at this point i think both players know one that they both either have hands or somebody is making a fairly big move calling does not seem to jive with this scenario of a tough player betting in to you on the river unless it blanks and he has your ideal hand a small flush. with a moderate raise on the turn though i think you make more money by making a bigger pot on the turn when he does have the smaller flush. if he lays it down ill salute. jmho
jason

[Eddy Raisin]

In my opinion, there are only two options in this given situation. The option is to reraise to about double the size of the pot. With an A x of spades and with several limpers in front of him, the big blind would/should have raised pre-flop to reduce the amount of people playing in the pot. Therefore there is very little chance you are up against an ace high flush, which would mean you are drawing dead. My prediction would be that the player flopped two pair, probably the two bottom and wants to reduce the possibility of someone drawing out on them.
The second option is to just flat-call in the event that you are up against an ace high flush. This would give you a chance to win an extra bet at the end and/or saving some chips by not reraising.
I would flat-call the reraise and bet a 1/3 or 1/2 the pot on the river, seeing is that the board did not pair or another spade did not come out. This would give the other player significant pot odds, therefore he will probably call your bet on the river.

[fnord_too]

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With an A x of spades and with several limpers in front of him, the big blind would/should have raised pre-flop to reduce the amount of people playing in the pot.

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I don't think so. If BB raised pre flop with Axs, it would have been a healthy raise with the intention of taking the pot right there. This is dangerous against savy opponents who know this play, but certainly in the arsenal of a tough player. Normal play with Axs in a multi way pot on the BB would be to check and close the action. Axs is not a hand you really want to play out of position against tough opponents, and certainly not a hand you want to invest chips in pre flop out of position.

[gummy d]

Call and see the next card. If it is not a spade and the blind bet doesn't bet anymore than 15,000 methinks you've got to call. If he checks, check behind him. If the board pairs we have another post.
now i think i'll read through and see what everyone else thinks.
gummy d

[David Sklansky]

The right play is almost certainly to call. In real life he moved in and was drawing dead.

[grandgnu]

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The right play is almost certainly to call. In real life he moved in and was drawing dead.

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So the tough opponent re-raised on the turn with the nuts. Very tricky move methinks.

I voted for the push as well, in case our opponent was drawing for a boat (holding two pair or a set). I figured his check-raise was an attempt to test "our" hand for the flush or move us out of the pot because he figured we were on a bluff.

Could you explain your reasoning for just calling here. I would think that if our opponent has "any two cards" that the possibility of him having two pair or a set, would be higher than the possibility of him having the nut flush (also possible he has a smaller flush). Given that possibilty, just calling, in the long run, opens us up to playing like a calling station, allowing our opponents to draw out on us when we may very well have the best hand.

[AngryCola]

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Could you explain your reasoning for just calling here

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I would appreciate an explanation of his rationale, as well. I know it seems easy to say now, but I would have called. Still, I'm not sure my reasons fit with Mr. Sklansky's logic.