AA on the BB

[damaniac]

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At the cash game, there's no reason to put all my money in the pot with everyone. I would prefer to take my time and earn my money slowly but surely.

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So what you're saying is, you don't want to play poker, you would rather just have a job? Because that's the only way this is happening.

[Huckle]

I didn't even consider the stacks on the final table, voted fold. But of course, if you have everyone covered, call. That way you would be at worst second (third with split and so on) and at best win it right there or be chip leader.

The cashgame is an easy call, just hope for the best.

The first day of a tournament, I went for call as well. I really don't count myself as a good enough tourney player to give up all those possible pots because I have a massive chip lead. A big stack like that when it happens is worth a lot more to me than playing it with an average stack. The real pros who can win any way would do better folding though.

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Nervous: Would you also turn down a deal where you could trade in your 10,000 chip stack in the WSOP? 7 times you get nothing back, 3 times, you get 100,000 back. This is a 300% increase.

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Keeping in mind that I'm not an expert (I'm barely a novice), I think the answer is "It depends." In your scenario, there's a 70% chance that you'll be out of the tournament altogether. So while a 200% increase is nice, and I understand that this basically triples my chances of winning the tournament, it seems that the key to winning tournaments is, first and foremost, survival. A bet with a 70% chance of not surviving doesn't seem like the best move. If I had unlimited bankrolls of $10,000 to play in tournaments, and if that offer were going to be made to me each time, I might think about it, but if this is my life savings and I'm making a run at it, I might decide it's better to stay in the game. (Am I doomed to be a fish all my life?)

[Dan Mezick]

Everyone calls in a 9 handed game. Let's say each of these all-in callers has a 10% chance of making a winning hand. Further let's say some of their outs cancel. (A typical situation).

You have the made nut hand now. If the game ends now, you win. But there are 5 cards to come.

Assume 8 players roughly 10% each to draw the winning hand, that's 80% collectively. Remove 1-tenth of this percentage for outs that cancel and you have a roughly 72% chance you are beat.

Thus you are a roughly 3 to 1 dog to win this specific, simplified, totally theoretical showdown.


The poll results are very interesting.

[Black Aces 518]

You're a 3 to 1 dog getting NINE TO ONE on your money. You need to win 10.1% of the time to show a profit, you are winning 28% of the time. This couldn't be an easier call in a cash game.

There is no viable circumstance to fold AA in a cash game unless someone else has shown you their AA face up and there are so many other opponents that your equity is killed. This will never happen. So never fold AA preflop in a cash game.

[Black Aces 518]

[ QUOTE ]
Keeping in mind that I'm not an expert (I'm barely a novice), I think the answer is "It depends." In your scenario, there's a 70% chance that you'll be out of the tournament altogether. So while a 200% increase is nice, and I understand that this basically triples my chances of winning the tournament, it seems that the key to winning tournaments is, first and foremost, survival. A bet with a 70% chance of not surviving doesn't seem like the best move. If I had unlimited bankrolls of $10,000 to play in tournaments, and if that offer were going to be made to me each time, I might think about it, but if this is my life savings and I'm making a run at it, I might decide it's better to stay in the game. (Am I doomed to be a fish all my life?)

[/ QUOTE ]

You touch on the only argument for folding on day 1 (or turning down the offer for 30% chance of 100,000 chips and 70% chance of 0). If you are there for your one time to play the WSOP and the experience of playing means more to you than winning or cashing or placing well, that's a value judgment for you to make. I suspect if I scrounged together the actual $10,000 to play, I might be hesitant, but I still would do it grudgingly, knowing I couldn't pass it up. If I won a satellite, I HAVE to take the deal. Starting with 100K greatly increases your chances of cashing. Not only because of the accumulation, but because of the +EV situations you can put yourself into to get more. If I got in for $100 or whatever, reaching the money and the $12,500 payout is HUGE.

Put it simply fellas. If you dont go all in on the first two you have no balls. (The third one is a simple fold 'cos of the prise for coming second. That dont require balls - its free money.)

[pzhon]

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Keeping in mind that I'm not an expert (I'm barely a novice)... I understand that this basically triples my chances of winning the tournament, it seems that the key to winning tournaments is, first and foremost, survival.

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No, that is just a common misconception. It is easily exploited, and it is exploited frequently by experts. That so many people are foolishly just trying to survive is one of the reasons tournaments are so profitable.

Welcome to the forums.

[Jcrew]

If you recognize one of the players as solid who wouldn't call multiplie all-in bets without AA, then you should fold. If there is another AA out there, your EV is miniscule.
EV
Ad Ah 1261 0.63 189872 94.29 10243 5.09 0.031
As Ac 4366 2.17 186767 92.75 10243 5.09 0.047
2s 2d 8500 4.22 192681 95.68 195 0.10 0.042
3d 3h 11733 5.83 189448 94.08 195 0.10 0.058
4s 4h 15652 7.77 185529 92.13 195 0.10 0.078
6s 6h 20459 10.16 180722 89.74 195 0.10 0.102
7d 7h 27280 13.55 173901 86.36 195 0.10 0.136
8d 8h 33798 16.78 167383 83.12 195 0.10 0.168
9s 9d 34389 17.08 166792 82.83 195 0.10 0.171
Jc Tc 33695 16.73 167486 83.17 195 0.10 0.167

This hypothetical was brought up on RGP before and the argument was based on the assumption that the AA had a 30% win rate. Given that assumption would you risk 70% elimination to 10x your starting chips on your first hand of the WSOP ME. The answer is of course yes if looking at it from a pure tournament equity perspective. Many of the main proponents for folding seem to argue based on their utility function is heavily influenced by actually playing in the ME. The rest argue on the basis that you can wait for better opportunities. We can attack the latter argument along at least two lines.

If everybody in the field is average, you have a 10% chance of being in the final 10%. 10x the original stack size is the average when the field is down to 10%. If you fold the AA, you are essentially saying that you are better than 3x the field. That would be a bold and probably unrealistic assessment.

Now here is another way to look at it. If you know magically somehow the SB has AQ, would you fold your AK in the BB to an all-in bet? It takes 3.3 wins of this type(assuming a double up each time) to 10x your money. You face a 70% chance of not winning them all. So if you would not fold to a move by AQ when you have AK, you cannot logically fold AA when 9 people move in in front of you.