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#71
11-04-2005, 06:01 PM
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Re: Buying Kane\'s Hand History Database
[ QUOTE ]
I am just saying that telling him to come back in 200k hands likely won't solve anything. A player who has run that ridiciulously hot is very VERY likely to be well above his real expectation when he reaches 200k hands. Will it be 10/100? Heavens, I hope not. But it will be above what he should normally expect. I'd say 200k hands is probably enough to get a good idea if you start counting at hand 0. But when you already have a sample of 40k that seems to be an outlier, a 200k sample will almost definitely be misleading(though less misleading as the first 40k). -James [/ QUOTE ] i would say there are definitely fewer hands needed in NLHE than LHE to determine winrate. 
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#72
11-04-2005, 06:11 PM
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Re: Buying Kane\'s Hand History Database
Why don't we just say that he's lying about his win rate? That's easier than arguing about confidence intervals and sampling bias.
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#74
11-04-2005, 06:19 PM
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Re: Buying Kane\'s Hand History Database
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] i would say there are definitely fewer hands needed in NLHE than LHE to determine winrate. [/ QUOTE ] I would also say that circles are round. [/ QUOTE ] dont be a dick. james was overestimating the number of hands needed to be reasonably confident of your winrate, based on his experience with LHE.
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#75
11-04-2005, 06:20 PM
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Re: Buying Kane\'s Hand History Database
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] i would say there are definitely fewer hands needed in NLHE than LHE to determine winrate. [/ QUOTE ] I would also say that circles are round. [/ QUOTE ] dont be a dick. james was overestimating the number of hands needed to be reasonably confident of your winrate. [/ QUOTE ] He wasn't. I love this thread.
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#76
11-04-2005, 06:21 PM
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Re: Buying Kane\'s Hand History Database
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] His winrate is only a little over 3 bb per 100 hands. Are you f'n kidding me!?!? In the 2000nl my winrate is over 10 bb per 100 hands after 40k hands. I do play short handed of course... [/ QUOTE ] Come back and let us know how it's going at the 200,000 hand mark. Thanks KoW [/ QUOTE ] Just curious, but is 200k hands the generally accepted level at which winrates converge? Is there any real science to this assumption or is it as arbitrary as all the old people who used to say "100k hands is the benchmark where you can tell if you are a winner in limit hold 'em," only to be proven completely wrong. -James [/ QUOTE ] To calculate your true winrate: for 95% accuracy: WR +/- SD*1.96/(sqrt(#hands/100)) for 99%: WR +/- SD*2.58/(sqrt(#hands/100)) So, just plug in your WR, and SD and # hands to determine your confidence intervals.
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#77
11-04-2005, 06:51 PM
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Re: Buying Kane\'s Hand History Database
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] i would say there are definitely fewer hands needed in NLHE than LHE to determine winrate. [/ QUOTE ] I would also say that circles are round. [/ QUOTE ] dont be a dick. james was overestimating the number of hands needed to be reasonably confident of your winrate, based on his experience with LHE. [/ QUOTE ] Hey baronz, where would you set the line for the amt of hands you need? 100k? -James
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#78
11-04-2005, 06:59 PM
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Re: Buying Kane\'s Hand History Database
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] i would say there are definitely fewer hands needed in NLHE than LHE to determine winrate. [/ QUOTE ] I would also say that circles are round. [/ QUOTE ] dont be a dick. james was overestimating the number of hands needed to be reasonably confident of your winrate, based on his experience with LHE. [/ QUOTE ] Hey baronz, where would you set the line for the amt of hands you need? 100k? -James [/ QUOTE ] if we are talking about NLHE, id say something like 200K hands is plenty (while 200K in LHE isnt anywhere near enough to be within .5BB/100). i havent done any exact math on this though, would be interested to see what people find. something else, if this guy is really at 10ptBB/100 over 40K hands, hes probably a very, very good player. i think when people talk about variance and winrates they focus too much on what is possible and too little on what is probable.
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#79
11-04-2005, 07:42 PM
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Re: Buying Kane\'s Hand History Database
[ QUOTE ]
]something else, if this guy is really at 10ptBB/100 over 40K hands, hes probably a very, very good player. [/ QUOTE ] This is false as well! Seriously, some of you are vastly underestimating the variance in this game, especially this specific game. My bankroll swings 9 buyins a day it seems. Of course it's easy to put together a tear like this. I and many others have done similar. I see terrible people running hot for weeks then they just donate it all back to the rest.
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#80
11-04-2005, 07:53 PM
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Re: Buying Kane\'s Hand History Database
[ QUOTE ]
This is false as well! Seriously, some of you are vastly underestimating the variance in this game, especially this specific game. My bankroll swings 9 buyins a day it seems. Of course it's easy to put together a tear like this. I and many others have done similar. I see terrible people running hot for weeks then they just donate it all back to the rest. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] i think when people talk about variance and winrates they focus too much on what is possible and too little on what is probable. [/ QUOTE ]
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