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#71
10-31-2005, 10:48 PM
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Re: minus 581 bets.
I will post this even though I realize no one really cares about micro limit players.
I just finished my worst month ever of poker in 16 months of playing. It began one day after the Party split. Over 75K hands of 1/2 short, I was a 3BB/100 winner with a few handfuls of 7-9K hand breakeven streaks and your usual smattering of 100-150BB dowswings. I continued to play the skins after Party split to finish off bonuses. During the 20K hands I played, I had downswings of 135, 250, and 100. The crowning jewel was finally finishing the bonus on the skins and hopping over to Pokerstars for a change of pace and to play the 2/4 short games. Immediate 100BB drop. Literally every time I've taken a shot at a higher limit I take it straight in the ass. Normal stats for me are 33/57 for went to sd and won at sd. This month since the party split: 22K hands: 33/52.5 Just gotten the [censored] kicked out of me all month. I don't even want to play anymore. October was a blur of river cards that killed my hand, missed flops and turn raises holding ace high. 
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#73
10-31-2005, 11:01 PM
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Re: minus 581 bets.
[ QUOTE ]
Nothing? You took a biased sample of your data and you're trying to extrapolate something from it. Josh's analogy earlier in the thread is correct. Calling this a "500whatever bet downswing" is really a misnomer given what else you've told us. [/ QUOTE ] Wow how original
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#74
10-31-2005, 11:23 PM
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Re: minus 581 bets.
i think it's worth noting. i've had it happen myself where i would be 6-tabling, playing an 3 tables per site. one account would get pummeled day after day, and i would have to withdraw winnings from the winning one just to keep the losing one with enough money for me to be comfortable. i've had it go on like that in both directions several times, and each time i've thought, "boy it would sure suck to have just been playing 3 tables on that account." and before somebody points out that it would be more focused, it's not really relevant. both sites had equal amounts of skill, tilt, tiltlessness, or whatever applied because it was all done at the same time. one of my dudes had an extended bad run.
i think it's more meaningful when it's looked at like that instead of when you're site-bouncing and one site has problems, there are many more variables in that instance because you've got different competition, different focus levels, etc depending on when you played.
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#75
10-31-2005, 11:26 PM
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Re: minus 581 bets.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] you ran so well on the way up I honestly don't think you're fully prepared for real variance. [/ QUOTE ] IIRC, bike has had a -45k day. He doesn't need you telling him about variance, n00b. [/ QUOTE ] then why does he always seem to whine about it?
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#76
10-31-2005, 11:52 PM
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Re: minus 581 bets.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] you ran so well on the way up I honestly don't think you're fully prepared for real variance. [/ QUOTE ] IIRC, bike has had a -45k day. He doesn't need you telling him about variance, n00b. [/ QUOTE ] then why does he always seem to whine about it? [/ QUOTE ] Wait a sec if I always whine about it like you say then wouldn't you know that I've had my fair share of variance? Don't try to put it on me.
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#77
11-01-2005, 12:18 AM
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Re: Something with the date.....
[ QUOTE ]
Man, I know how you feel and its gotta be even worse for you. Oct, has been my worst month ever, even though it was more break even for me. It seems to be suck out month at PP. Most days this month I have been laughing (with insanity) as I get beat on yet again. I logged 5 winning days this month and SD stats of 38/30 were quite regular. [/ QUOTE ] I can relate completely to everything you just said. It's been unreal. I believe yesterday I got it all in on the flop 4 times with the stone cold nuts and lost to bottom two pairs boating up... or TPTK hitting runners for the boat. You know that feeling when theres only one hand out there that beats you and since you've been running bad you just assume they have it... yep, know that all too well. Or getting KK and just playing the hand to see what type of beat you can add to the archives... yep. This month sucked for me:  I'm lovin it.
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#79
11-01-2005, 11:41 AM
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Re: minus 581 bets.
I hit a terrible downswing at the Stars 11s and decided it was a good time to move up. For the past two weeks I've been playing 11s and 22s side by side, two of each. I'm crushing the 22s but continue to bleed out at the 11s.
Maybe it's time to move up again.
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#80
11-01-2005, 12:13 PM
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Re: minus 581 bets.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] It's just a big statistical anomoly that shows that even a great player can have a downswing in the 600 big bet range. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think it shows that at all. [/ QUOTE ] What does it show? [/ QUOTE ] Nothing? You took a biased sample of your data and you're trying to extrapolate something from it. Josh's analogy earlier in the thread is correct. Calling this a "500whatever bet downswing" is really a misnomer given what else you've told us. [/ QUOTE ] dude- its lonely at the top, BK was trying to fit in with the rest of us poker mortals. leave the man alone.
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