attitude on coinflips

[kevkev60614]

Simplistic,
I think the majority of this debate revolves around the difference between cEV and $EV. Posters here have tried in various ways to explain this, and many have used examples. I'm going to try now, too.

Suppose it's down to four players who each have 2500 chips. Blinds are 1/2 and you are on the BB. It's folded to the SB who pushes. You peak at his cards. Cheater. He has AKo and you have 77. You're ~ 55% to win. To fold is 0 cEV and to call is ~ +250 cEV.

But cEV is nowhere near as important as $EV. $EV is your expected value in prize dollars, or your expected percentage of the prize pool. Currently you're $EV is 25%. Folding doesn't change this, so the $EV of folding is 0. But ICM says your expected percentage of the prize pool would increase with a double up here to 38.33%.

55% * 38.33% + 45% * 0% = 21%. Your expected portion of the prize pool decreases 4% if you call in this scenario.

[Simplistic]

[ QUOTE ]

The fact that you are succeding at SNGs indicates that in many ways, you might already be applying these concepts more than you think. That or you are playing very weak opponents.

Regards
Brad S

[/ QUOTE ]I agree with both parts. party 22s.

and kevkev. reflecting I don't think I practice what I have been preaching. although geting AK in this situation is getting your money in as a dog. if this situation came up i'd most likely muck. however there are situations where I might take a coin-flip early on in a sng just because I can quickly move onto the next sng or double my stack. according to ICM theory then this is wrong.

I'm curious to see whether people who are mindful of ICM calculate it nearly always late game when there's a push/fold situation, or they apply the concept and pick and choose their spots independent of actual ICM calculation.