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#71
10-14-2005, 12:52 AM
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Re: Admitting defeat
[ QUOTE ]
It's easy to have once in a while streak of 1000bb of you're play betweeen 0 and 0.5bb/100. You can be still winning player... GOOD winner in terms of money/hour at 100/200. [/ QUOTE ] This is something I hadn't thought about. There has to exist a certain percentage of the poker population that has a very high bankroll, but limited skill. I'm not talking about your average rich fish...I'm talking about a thinking, smart player that just can't get over the hump, and lives in that .25 BB - .75BB land. This type of person could realize that he is better off making .5BB at 100/200 than making 2BB at 15/30, so he grinds it out. After a while, the inevitable swing happens, tilt comes in, and he blows through 500BB before he even knows what happened. I suspect that there are plenty of people out there who fit this bill, and the occasional high limit 1000BB loser may be easier to find than you think. 
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#72
10-14-2005, 01:01 AM
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Re: Admitting defeat
Okay, allow me to re-phrase or explain what I mean then. Of course, 1000 big bet swings or even 500+ big bet swings won't be "common" occurences in the purest sense of the word.
What I am saying is that if two or three-tabling £150/300 for several hours is your regular everyday game, the chance of enduring a 1000 big bet swing during a year is much more real than "microscopic" or "non-existent". Meaning, we are not talking "likely" or "common" here, but we are talking of chances in percentages, not one-in-a-millions here. The thing the online poker does is allowing your to life an entire poker life of the old live days in a year of online poker. That gives talented and eager 20-somethings the chance to go from nowhere to millionaires overnight (again, figuratively speaking). It also creates a much more real "risk" experiencing of the most unlikely runs of bad luck one can imagine. lars
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#73
10-14-2005, 01:07 AM
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Re: Admitting defeat
Hallelujah. Now, how many players do think win more than 0.5bb/100 per hour at £150/300, provided they sit down at any full 6-handed game they stumble across?
Of course, using insane game selection, and only taking the big blind in a game about twice a month, you can probably quite easily be 1bb/100 even in this game. lars
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#75
10-14-2005, 01:29 AM
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Re: Admitting defeat
I would imagine Erik as well, but I have nothing to back that up.
As far as brutal swings, I think Shawn Keller blew through 300k+ in one weekend playing the Norwegain crew (Jarle and others) on UB's 3/6 HU.
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#76
10-14-2005, 01:39 AM
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Re: Admitting defeat
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Now, how many players do think win more than 0.5bb/100 per hour at £150/300 [/ QUOTE ] stoxtrader for one. [/ QUOTE ] That is very possible, and bicyclekick might be too. All my post was saying is that the limit is brutal not only because of the money at stake, but because the higher level of opposition creates even bigger swings in terms of big bets than what one is used to at lower stakes. Having said that, people who will play any game where they are anywhere between 0bb/100->>>> will struggle very hard to stay at more than 0.5bb/100 total on the limit. Those who come in at over 0.5bb/100 practice some game selection I would suppose, not only staying away from games where they might actually be losers, but also maybe from a game where they are likely something like 0.1bb/100, which not only won't be much value for their time (seeing what they can earn elsewhere on poker), but also put they bankroll under some risk at preciously little reward. There are players at this limit who are long-term winners (albeit, as I said, probably very slight in terms of bb/100) who will simply play any game, regardless of EV. lars
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#77
10-14-2005, 01:39 AM
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Re: Admitting defeat
[ QUOTE ]
I would imagine Erik as well, but I have nothing to back that up. As far as brutal swings, I think Shawn Keller blew through 300k+ in one weekend playing the Norwegain crew (Jarle and others) on UB's 3/6 HU. [/ QUOTE ] I've heard -500k from a reliable source. He was 2 tabling 3/6 holdem head up on UB for a like 2-3 straight days.
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#78
10-14-2005, 01:42 AM
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Re: Admitting defeat
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Now, how many players do think win more than 0.5bb/100 per hour at £150/300 [/ QUOTE ] stoxtrader for one. [/ QUOTE ] stox is a great player, probably a better limit player than I am, but he will tell you himself that his expectation is nowhere near his results, especially not if he were to sit in "any 6 handed 150-3 game that goes." -James
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