|
|
#71
10-04-2005, 10:44 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Was Villain Right?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] The way to do this is to say againt TT-KK I have 7 outs. Against Big unpaired aces I have 7 outs because if I pair my kicker I'm good [/ QUOTE ] I think this leaves us in an interesting position if we hit an Ace, or particularly a 6, and are bet into. [/ QUOTE ] Are we really paying off the river with a 6? [/ QUOTE ] ... [ QUOTE ] Villain may also have AK/AQ, I don't think we're giving these hands enough credit [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] You really think he always bets the river with those hands? Without doing all the math I think he has to bet them pretty close to always. 
|
|
#72
10-04-2005, 11:32 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Was Villain Right?
[ QUOTE ]
When I 3-bet in the SB, he can't possibily be ahead PF with A-6o, and since his hand didn't improve on the flop he still can't be ahead. I can't possibly see the point in raising the flop, he is just putting in an extra BB when he is way behind. [/ QUOTE ] I agree this is the most dubious play he made. Clearly he is not raising for value; he is raising for a free card. If that had a chance, then the raise is fine. Given your aggression, though, a 3-bet is too likely and a free card too unlikely. [ QUOTE ] Calling the turn against what he knew to be a 22/14/2.8 seems -EV to me too, since he can't even be sure that his A is good. I think we could say that his ace is good for maybe 2 outs. So he is calling a 7.5-1 when he is about an 8-1 dog. Where is the EV in this play? I don't get it. [/ QUOTE ] If he hits he will very likely get two more bets out of you, so he is actually getting 9.5-1 on his ~6 outs. (Actually, it is slightly more complicated since he will not go for two bets if he pairs up, but ...) That is more than enough to make the call. [ QUOTE ] FWIW, what do you think of my river play? Should I be c/c? I am damn sure I have the best hand on the turn when he just calls, and i can't put the PF raiser on a hand with a 6 except for 66 and I cna't see him getting to the river with 66. I am not sure whether or not I should pay him off on the river, I am inclined to say no. [/ QUOTE ] Do we know what you had? I'll assume from your tone that it is a big pair. Getting 11-1 against an unknown, I put in that last bet, just like you. By the way, 66 will make it the river here a lot. It has six outs if you have a big pair and you could easily play AK like you played this (through the turn).
|
|
#73
10-05-2005, 12:15 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Was Villain Right?
[ QUOTE ]
haha... I don't post often, but I'll respond to this one. Villain in this hand was me, (btw i didn't and never would call you stupid, but I will confess to the "how did you even see the river" comment) and I can't see how Q-tip made any right plays in this hand expect for raising the nuts on the river. When I 3-bet in the SB, he can't possibily be ahead PF with A-6o, and since his hand didn't improve on the flop he still can't be ahead. I can't possibly see the point in raising the flop, he is just putting in an extra BB when he is way behind. Calling the turn against what he knew to be a 22/14/2.8 seems -EV to me too, since he can't even be sure that his A is good. I think we could say that his ace is good for maybe 2 outs. So he is calling a 7.5-1 when he is about an 8-1 dog. Where is the EV in this play? I don't get it. FWIW, what do you think of my river play? Should I be c/c? I am damn sure I have the best hand on the turn when he just calls, and i can't put the PF raiser on a hand with a 6 except for 66 and I cna't see him getting to the river with 66. I am not sure whether or not I should pay him off on the river, I am inclined to say no. [/ QUOTE ] DelChop....what a pleasure to play with you then. I'm sorry for you the hand turned out the way it did. However, I'm certain with your solid play you'll recoup the loss. I was wondering if a 2+2er would come forward. I couldn't remember your exact first phrase "Stupid" or "Gee wiz"..something along those lines. Here..I just looked it up from the next hand for us... DelChop: so sick DelChop: how do you even see the river QTip: I pressed call on the turn The play has been discussed at length here, so no need to go further into it. Basically, the call on the turn became very easy given my bloating of the pot on the flop. I can't see how you can't bet the river there. However, given my stats [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img], perhaps you could fold to the raise....I don't know though....I'm a noob. P.S. Had I know it was you, my response in the chat box would have been more elaborate [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
|
|
#74
10-05-2005, 12:27 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Was Villain Right?
I am really finding it hard to believe how many people have criticized the pfr and turn call.
Preflop seems quite standard, unless the blinds are good tags who adjust well to 4 handed, which I really really doubt is the case. Typical 3/6 tags will fold their blinds much too often, and any none tag you can outplay postflop enough for this to be profitable (you also have an equity edge and position). The turn is obvious as well, this isnt close. As I said before, I really am amazed at the number of posters who can't see this. I'm not going to go into the math; others have done this. I am also surprised at how many think this flop play is so bad. If we can get him to lay down an ace on the flop or turn a reasonable amount of the time, this is correct. If I am villian in this hand with AJ, and I know my opponent is reasonable, then this is a fold on the turn on most cards (assuming i call the flop raise and he bets the turn). A flop call is not close. Hero needs to call this.
|
|
#76
10-05-2005, 12:40 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Was Villain Right?
The villain was right. You are getting 7.5-1 on the turn and there is no way that you have 7 outs. You need to discount your outs for the times you are behind a better ace, AA, or your villain has a set. Id say at most you have 5 maybe 6 outs and you dont have odds to call in that case.
The flop play is terrible. Why are you raising the preflop 3 better? You MIGHT be able to fold a strong ace that missed, but nothing else that he is three betting preflop is folding here. Your raise accomplishes nothing. Given that you have to call his 3bet, but on the turn you should be folding.
|
|
#77
10-05-2005, 01:04 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Was Villain Right?
[ QUOTE ]
haha... I don't post often, but I'll respond to this one. Villain in this hand was me, (btw i didn't and never would call you stupid, but I will confess to the "how did you even see the river" comment) and I can't see how Q-tip made any right plays in this hand expect for raising the nuts on the river. When I 3-bet in the SB, he can't possibily be ahead PF with A-6o, and since his hand didn't improve on the flop he still can't be ahead. I can't possibly see the point in raising the flop, he is just putting in an extra BB when he is way behind. Calling the turn against what he knew to be a 22/14/2.8 seems -EV to me too, since he can't even be sure that his A is good. I think we could say that his ace is good for maybe 2 outs. So he is calling a 7.5-1 when he is about an 8-1 dog. Where is the EV in this play? I don't get it. FWIW, what do you think of my river play? Should I be c/c? I am damn sure I have the best hand on the turn when he just calls, and i can't put the PF raiser on a hand with a 6 except for 66 and I cna't see him getting to the river with 66. I am not sure whether or not I should pay him off on the river, I am inclined to say no. [/ QUOTE ] Often when the Aces aren't good, the 6s are. The turn call shouldn't even be close.
|
|
#79
10-05-2005, 01:25 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Was Villain Right?
you guys are so ridiculous. how can u say he does not have 7 outs? unless he has exactly A8 or AA or a set, we have 7 outs no matter how u look at it. Either our 6 is good or our Ace is good. Just cuz villain 3 bets the flop you award him one of these hands? I think its much more likely that he has a hand like 99, JJ, QQ, or KK or even AK and smaller pps. Given just a 3 bet pf(if villain resteals our steals) and I steal like 80% in the co in 5/10 (maybe 65% with 10/20) with A6o if its folded to me btw. This pot is clearly something we want some absolute 3 bet no respect hands to fold so I like the raise on the flop. Getting 3 bet I'm almost inclined to cap. This is not a spew we are fighting for a free card or some fold equity. Villain could very well fold his one over on the flop. (maybe even 2) By the turn this is definitely a call and if you hit ur gut, unless he still has Ace high you are getting paid off a guaranteed of 2 bets(or 1.85 for sake of argument). Whoever says less is drunk and mad(yes even you with the green name) Maybe we dont play the same kind of poker. I like this hand and I think its fine.
|
|
#80
10-05-2005, 02:37 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Was Villain Right?
4 handed on the CO, this is not a bad raise. Every other street is lame htough.
EDIT: Every other = Flop (but turn is still pretty marginal if u would have played this correctly). I just wanted to say 'every other'. If u played it as u should have it would be 5bbs to u on the turn. U need anywhere between 8.2:1 or 5.6:1 (best case scenario)...I think the only way u are making more than one BB on the river is if u hit your gutshot. So if u just called the flop turn is still marginal (depends it may not be that bad. Just putting the thought out there, if u truly have 7 outs u are fine).
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
