AA on the BB

[ratso]

Certainly I have the best (or tied for it) pre-flop. I am quite sure someone else must have AA with me, so there is little chance of improvement. I would have to win with AA, 2 pr, st or flush and that would most likely be a split. Nice to eliminate players, but if I fold, I am pretty sure of moving up a notch or more because there will be only 1 or 2 winners if thay are all in. Easy fold for me, and I can watch. I do not like my position, but I love my cards. I know in a 5 handed game AA is about 70%+ hand, but why risk it when someone will be beaten and you can move up a notch or 3 meaning $$$

[theben]

cash game, easy call

first day WSOP, why not. even though you can't keep doing this all tourney, u can either get ahead or save time

FT, this is tougher. id almost rather let skill (or lack of) win/lose the tourney rather than an AIPF where i figure to be about 2-1 to triple

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
So unless you expect your chances of winning the WSOP to increase from 1/5000 to better than 1/200 it is not a positive EV move to call this bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
Your calculations make no sense. It looks like you counted the cost of busting out three or four times instead of once. If you assume you win 3/10 of the time, you need to increase your expected prize money by 10/3 when you win, not the factor of 25 you concluded, to make calling +EV.

It should be clear that having 9 times as many chips at the start of a huge tournament increases your expected prize money by at least this much. Not only do top players not have a 30% chance to make it up to 9 times the initial stack, but getting extra chips early gives you the opportunity to accumulate chips using those. Even if you have a 70% chance to double up at some point, you may want to take a 55% chance to double up immediately. You might normally double up or bust out after a day. Starting with twice as many chips is better than doubling up at the end of the first day because it gives you an extra day to accumulate chips.

cash game: easy call, unless 1. everyone at ur table's total fish 2. they will rebuy 3. u have more cash

first hand on wsop: easy call, unless u have the x-ray sunglasses that lets u see other people's cards

final table: this would of course depend on the chip counts. if everyone had the same chip count, i'd fold here and go for the second prize. if u have everyone covered, obviously call. if u are second or third in chip stack, i would call because 1. i just need to beat two people who have more chips than me to survive 2. if i get eliminated, I will still place higher than all the shorter stacks that get eliminated. if u are one of the shorter stack, obvious fold.

on a similar note, first hand on wsop, same thing happens and you find KK. would you call?

first correct response I have read Xhad

[Cerril]

Of course it's far more likely that your equity is a lot lower. I'm just saying that even if you somehow know that someone's got Ax (not AA), you're still better off letting the pot go in some very real situations.

Now... if you had 1 more chip than the rest of the field, that's another matter entirely.

[nervous]

I would probably fold all of the situations.

The other hands would include pocket pairs and high cards, like AK AQ AJ, so I would say at MOST I would be drawing to one ace. It is almost a minefield with the other pocket pairs, assuming they would be.

The tournament questions are easy just for simple tournament theory.

[Black Aces 518]

Nervous: Would you also turn down a deal where you could trade in your 10,000 chip stack in the WSOP? 7 times you get nothing back, 3 times, you get 100,000 back. This is a 300% increase.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course it's far more likely that your equity is a lot lower. I'm just saying that even if you somehow know that someone's got Ax (not AA), you're still better off letting the pot go in some very real situations.

Now... if you had 1 more chip than the rest of the field, that's another matter entirely.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is it far more likely? If people here WONT call this with AA, what reasonable person would call with Ax? Your opponents aren't reasonable, there is no extra information, so it's safe to treat their hands as random, IMO.

I'm still not anywhere near the level where I am making all these calculations in my head, but my instincts are to call in the cash game because the payout odds seem right in relation to my odds of winning. On the tournaments, I would fold both because (1) I don't want to go out in the first day and (2) I'd rather watch others get bumped out so that my cash payoff is greater (you're playing for the prize money at that point, not just chips).

Yes, I still have a lot of reading--and playing--to do. No, I don't want to play with you! Yet.