$30+3 - Very difficult bubble hand

[gasgod]

In the humble opinion of this beginner, it is a mistake to focus on UTG. Look at the hand from the viewpoint of the BB.

If you push, you give BB a powerful incentive to fold. It may not be right for him to fold, but you give him the hope of backing into the money, which makes a fold more attractive.

However, suppose you flat call. BB now has overwhelming pot odds to call and would be an innumerate fool to fold. (5.4 to 1 if SB folds, 7.5 to 1 if SB calls) I argue that unless you read BB to be a total fish, it must be right to call.

If he folds, he will have t240, and be forced to post the small blind next hand, hardly a recipe for having any realistic chance to money. But if he calls and gets a great flop (2 pair or better), he has a chance to not only get back in the contest, but also to take the lead over you, and threaten UTG for second place.

If you call, BB has a mandatory call, and that's what your analysis should presume. Maybe it's still a fold, scuba, I dunno. But I'm convinced that pushing is wrong.

As one poster said, if you call and BB stupidly folds, you have to protect your position. In effect, you and BB can cooperate to steal $EV from UTG by both calling. You gotta trust BB to do the right thing. If you had a made hand, it might be different, but as many have pointed out, all you have is a draw.

Additionally, although it's very unlikely, SB could also enter the pot. How comfortable would you be if you pushed, and everybody called except BB? Or, worse, if SB came over the top all-in, and UTG called? Your next decision might well be what to have for dinner.

I'd be interested to see what ICM has to say about a call with the assumption that BB will always call.


GG

[valenzuela]

My instinct are wrong...a fold is correct accoring to ICM

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
1. call- then If BB comes along, push/call flop regardless

2. call- if BB folds, play the hand like your life is on the line...fold to bet on missed flop/check down...play weak IOW(800 left if you fold...great shape to squeak itm)

This is how 'd i play it...i think by only asking "what would you do" leaves out the branches in the analysis of "call, then what would you do if, 1. and 2."


[/ QUOTE ]

Pooh, this (your) decision is the one I'm leaning toward is the best line (for me). I definately don't like folding here (I know, I know, you're all surprised), but I am very concerned about pushing.

You know, what we haven't discussed is what would your decision be if UTG had just pushed allin. I guess my feeling here is that those who are on the fence of Call here would be the ones who suggest pushing allin. And those who would fold to an allin, are suggesting that your line is more attractive.

Would you fold your AK to an allin by UTG here?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe it's still a fold, scuba, I dunno. But I'm convinced that pushing is wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have not been one to advocate a fold. In fact, I pushed into this hand (and lost to TT).

In response to Degen's opinion that pushing will always be +EV, I responded that looking at this from a pure $EV analysis limits your options to just push or fold. I guess if my only options were limited to just push or fold, I'm now thinking I would fold. But due to the fact that calling is an option, it makes this an extremely interesting hand to discuss.

Scuba

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Maybe it's still a fold, scuba, I dunno. But I'm convinced that pushing is wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have not been one to advocate a fold. In fact, I pushed into this hand (and lost to TT).

In response to Degen's opinion that pushing will always be +EV, I responded that looking at this from a pure $EV analysis limits your options to just push or fold. I guess if my only options were limited to just push or fold, I'm now thinking I would fold. But due to the fact that calling is an option, it makes this an extremely interesting hand to discuss.

Scuba

[/ QUOTE ]

In response to this and your prior post, I think there are times to play weak, and this is one of them. Its all about chronology here...UTG has already acted, so he is closed down PF UNLESS...UNLESS u push...so lets see what BB does bc that is what really decides the interesting part of this hand's IMPLICATIONS....(who cashes). BB folds, UTG bets on the flop that u missed...u can fold and BB has 140 on his next hand...u have 800...i like ur chances....

BB comes along and u push on the flop and hopefully have 2nd best hand, at least and cash.