Hand to Talk About

[mike l.]

"While it's hard to say what BB may be holding, Mason's hand isn't that hard to guess"

are you kidding? all mason did was raise preflop bet the flop and then call the turn when the A paired. that could be all sorts of hands. if someone i didnt know played their hand that way and i was the bb i would not be thinking "gee it's pretty obvious this guy has AK"

[BarronVangorToth]

Given Mason's actions, FEW could put him on AK as most would pop the AK on the turn for a raise ... like I said before, with the BB not getting raised, he must think Mason doesn't have an Ace and maybe his, I don't know, random KJ is good.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com

[ggbman]

Very interesting hand Mason... I am curious as to why this isn't an easy raise. The hands the BB could have that are ahead of you are 22, AJ, JJ, or J2 which isn't really worth considering. I don't know about the texture of this game, would you expect Jacks to three-bet pre flop? He certainly could have AJ, as it would warrnt the preflop call and then slowplay when he flopped top two. But it's not that likely that all the aces are out there AND he has a boat. He might also be temtped to check the nuts here since you have shown strenth the whole way and may have a monster yourself. I think the most likely holding he has that beats you is 22. He might call from the BB getting 5.5 to 1 on his money and then slowplay the flop. If he had you on an ace, the turn made you trips and boated him up, so he might bet hoping you would raise with trips. In conclusion, i think that raising the river would show profit as the pot is big and he could well have a lesser ace, maybe he was even bluffing with a hand like KJ. I think when you are behind here, it's most liley to 22. I am interested to hear the results.

Gabe

[JasonP530]

I want to say that if you are concerned about the BB having AJ or A2 there, his range of calling hands is wide enough to make raising a viable option. If hes in there with A2, he is in there with any suited ace, as well as ATo and KJ and probably QJ. FWIW, his risk is only 2 bets by raising, as he is surely going to call the river anyways.

[Gamblor]

Next time his opponent has a marginal hand on the river and Mason is strong, he will still value bet knowing that Mason won't raise him without the nuts.

Of course, next time Mason is heads up on the river, he may be able to bluff-raise the river. When his opponent has a good but not exceptional hand, he may let go knowing that last time Mason didn't even raise with top trips top kicker. If he's raising this time, he must have a monster.

Mason is giving up one BB here to steal 5+ next time.

Perhaps?

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Next time his opponent has a marginal hand on the river and Mason is strong, he will still value bet knowing that Mason won't raise him without the nuts.

Of course, next time Mason is heads up on the river, he may be able to bluff-raise the river. When his opponent has a good but not exceptional hand, he may let go knowing that last time Mason didn't even raise with top trips top kicker. If he's raising this time, he must have a monster.

Mason is giving up one BB here to steal 5+ next time.

Perhaps?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a good point. Nice post.

Rob

[Ulysses]

Great post, Mason. I agree that whether you should have raised the turn or were better off waiting and raising the river is a worthy topic of discussion.

[mmcd]

I really don't see how raising the turn could be better than raising the river here.

[Cornell Fiji]

[ QUOTE ]
Next time his opponent has a marginal hand on the river and Mason is strong, he will still value bet knowing that Mason won't raise him without the nuts.

Of course, next time Mason is heads up on the river, he may be able to bluff-raise the river. When his opponent has a good but not exceptional hand, he may let go knowing that last time Mason didn't even raise with top trips top kicker. If he's raising this time, he must have a monster.

Mason is giving up one BB here to steal 5+ next time.

Perhaps?

[/ QUOTE ]


Wow, It took the 75th response to actually teach me something by proposing a plausable reason as to why The Mason might only call here.

Obviously at face value it seems as though a river raise here seems standard. For reasons stated in the first 74 replies we all would have raised this river (and maybe the turn.)

It also seems that the edge for The Mason, although clear, is somewhat slight (maybe worth 1/2 BB?) as he will be 3-bet by some of the villains possible holdings. So for the cost of 1/2 BB it could set up a steal that could easily be worth 6+ BBs. If this play only has a 1/5 chance of setting up a river steal later vs. this villain it is therefore a great play.

(Edit: I guess I need to discount the EV formula because it is not gauranteed that this play will successfully set up a play later on but either way its value is not in the fact that he will not get called by inferior hands or raised by superior ones, but it is the added value of setting up the villain later on)

Great point Gamblor, great post Mason.

-Steve

[jogger08152]

Looks better after some thought than it did initially, assuming he's a good player - and you're giving him credit for being at least solid. The widest range of hands your play suggests you believe he would call your raise with is: any suited Ace, any pocket pair, and possibly AQ and AJ offsuit. (I assume you also believe he would throw away PP's other than JJ, 22, maybe KK and possibly QQ postflop.)

1. He cannot have called your preflop raise with AJs. (The Aces of clubs and spades are on board, you hold the diamond, and the Jack is a heart.) If BB is the type of player who would call your EP raise with AJ offsuit, he presumably would also call with AQ offsuit and quite possibly worse Aces (suited or off). This would justify a raise you didn't make.

Side note: I understand that he could hold 4 AQ's and 3 AJ's, (throw in AhTh too if you want) so if you believe he would call in this position with any of these hands and any pocket pair but no other dominated Aces your play would be easily correct - assuming you believe there's nothing else he could be playing apart from JJ or 22 in the manner he played this hand. (Any chance he has KK or QQ?) If you have this tight a read on this player, kudos.

2. It would seem a strange combination for a player to be bad enough to call a PF raise with AJ offsuit, catch two pair and then be clever enough to just call on the flop and then bet out on the turn, hoping you'll raise so he can re-raise. (Most players, I think, would just checkraise you in this situation, and given the way you played this hand, they would be correct to do so.)

3. Boats: He didn't raise preflop, which may somewhat reduce the likelihood he holds JJ (not sure how many 80-160 players would 3-bet out of position against an EP raise and a cold-call, but there have to be some). So, while he could hold JJ or slightly more likely 22, I'd have been inclined to throw in a raise on the turn or river, again assuming he could have called you with a reasonable number of weaker Aces and isn't a lock to muck to your raise.

I would guess you'd have to have a pretty strong read on this player (either tell-wise or through previous play) to play the turn and river as you did. I'll be very interested in seeing the results.

Jogger.