How Would You Play This Hand?

[Lurshy]

I call him down here.

I know its usually not correct to call off your money, but if he is bluffing or betting a 2nd best into to me, great I 'll let him do so here, and on later streets.

I don't need to go over the top though to find out he has the nuts, or to have him fold his bluff.

[srw5n]

David-
I honestly don't think it matters. In so far as the correct play is concerned (I think even with more hands in play it's still an easy call). BUT...

It makes putting the BB on a range of hands easier. I think it eliminates 1010 or other flopped sets as possible holdings, because a smooth call invites J-9 and spade draws to call where as a flopped set would want these draws out. Likely a flopped set check raises the flop. Additionally, I think it eliminates two pair on the flop. With those considerations I also think 88 becomes highly unlikely because one of your two outs is a spade. 10-8 looks highly possible, I also believe nut flush, smaller flushes and J-9 become the most likely holdings as these are the type of hands that would like addtional calls to improve pot odds.

Therefore you are worried about pairing the 10 or the 8, but most worried about the nut flush.

A smooth call will allow you to get more money in the pot from a smaller flush without having to risk your whole stack to the nut flush. Additionally, if the BB is running a bluff with a straight draw you may get to snap off a third bluff at the pot.

Finally, with a smooth call if the board pairs you gain a scare card against the nut flush.

I think this is a clear smooth call.

as for the dispositive - if your opponent has J-9 any is running a bluff at the pot, he'll drop to any raise you make. - if your opponent has a smaller flush, he'll likely drop, particularly if it's very low - if your opponent has the nut flush or a naked A spades he's likely over the top of any raise you make and I don't see how you could call. I think raise is a negative EV move at this point.

[disjunction]

Quote:


A smooth call will allow you to get more money in the pot from a smaller flush without having to risk your whole stack to the nut flush.
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Yes but can this tradeoff be quantified somehow? The opponent is 6x more likely to have a smaller flush than the nut flush. What does the 18000 in the pot and 35000 stacks mean relative to this 6x chance?

Also, your opponents flush won't improve, so ignoring the sets, there should be some kind of simplicity to this problem where whoever is ahead on the turn is ahead on the river.

[TheJackal]

Opponent is in big blind, so I would assume that he might raise with a suited ace, but depending on his kicker, he might just take a flop. This is a difficult decision, but I would push, because for one, I think a tough opponent is capable of semi-bluffing with the naked ace of spades. I also think that he could have a less than a flush, (like a set for example) and might be probing to see where he is at. The one hand I'd be worried about is the 79 of spades, because I think that hand would play out just like it did...

[West]

Thinking about this further....

What would the BB flat call with on the flop with 2 or 3 players to act after his call? Is the right play for the BB to throw away weaker flush draws, given that

1) He stands a better chance of being reraised with several still to act

2) If others call, he stands a greater chance of drawing to a 2nd best flush, particularly because of all the limpers preflop

3) If others don't call, he may not get implied action if he does hit, and hitting an overcard may get him creamed as well, and he's out of position

As Kurn pointed out, two pair on the flop is almost certainly raising as well....so....I'm still not sure. To me, an unknown player could be calling with all kinds of things in that spot. But with a "tough player", I'm thinking the range of hands is narrowing a lot, and the nut flush becomes a much greater worry. Just calling the turn raise is looking a lot more appealing to me.

[sdplayerb]

that is quite an assumption.
just because we don't state that fact, doesn't mean we have not taken it into account.
we don't need to restate something that is already known in the original post to prove we have taken it into account.

[fnord_too]

I certainly considered what the BB action meant considering he called with many players left to act behind him. The range of hands he can have is still pretty large given the action. I would think hands like 2p are slightly less likely here, since it is a strong but very vulnerable hand, but I could also see waiting for the turn to see how things develop with 2p. (Also, I did not include an overpair in the BB's possible holdings due to his pre flop check and flop call with multiple opponents)

Once it gets to HU it is all pretty moot. The nut flush is a possibility, as are many other hands. I think a tough player will lay down most if not all worse hands to a raise but will cripple or bust you with the nut flush. Also, there is a decent chance a worse hand will fire on the end. I really don't see any hand pushing on the end. (I do admit that if the BB puts me on a king high flush and pushes with the nuts, I am probably hung out to dry, but that is a stretch).

I have seen nothing to change my initial oppinion that this is an easy call down. Certainly I play this differently against poorer opponents, but against tough ones this does not even seem close.

I am kind of shocked by the amount of people who say "You cannot let BB draw for free here." This is absurd, if he is drawing it certainly is not for free, since you already bet, and if he is drawing he has compounded his error by raising (which needs to at least raise the suspicion that he has the nut flush).

Also, I have seen people pontificate that BB would never check raise the nuts here. Ludicrous. If he never c/r'd with the nuts his play would give away too much information for him to be what I would term a tough player.

The only option I see other than calling down is folding, but I think you are ahead far far too often to make this correct.

I would be thrilled to be convinced that I am wrong, because I would undoubtedly have learned a lot.

[West]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I have seen people pontificate that BB would never check raise the nuts here. Ludicrous.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
I am kind of shocked by the amount of people who say "You cannot let BB draw for free here." This is absurd, if he is drawing it certainly is not for free, since you already bet, and if he is drawing he has compounded his error by raising (which needs to at least raise the suspicion that he has the nut flush).

Also, I have seen people pontificate that BB would never check raise the nuts here. Ludicrous. If he never c/r'd with the nuts his play would give away too much information for him to be what I would term a tough player.

I would be thrilled to be convinced that I am wrong, because I would undoubtedly have learned a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are incorrect in complaining about us saying we're allowing him to draw for free by just calling. Yes, we bet, he check-raised us. There is ONE hand that beats us at this point, and a ton of possible draws that have the potential of costing you the pot if you allow your opponent to see the river.

Sometimes people are so consumed with obtaining the maximum value on their hand that in attempting to trap their drawing opponent they become the one trapped in the end, with so much money in the pot.

Yes, it is possible a "tough" opponent would re-raise with the nuts, but I still believe if he did have the nuts he's going to continue to trap you and not push you out of the pot.

His re-raise to me, screams that he's looking for you to lay down and obviously if you don't, for information on what your holding is. He probably believes, based on all the post-flop checking and your bet, that you are on a steal, and he can push you off it and take the pot down right now with his check-raise.

He does not, in my opinion, have this hand won. He may not even have a good draw. But given the number of callers pre-flop he could indeed have any holding, and I don't see a point in risking allowing a scare card to fall and you get bluffed out of the pot or get beat if he does have the draw.

[West]

To me, it's not that you "cannot" let your opponent draw for "free" here, but in the event that he is drawing against you (with either two pair, a set, or the naked A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]), his raise has given you an opportunity to charge him even more, or to not even give him a chance to draw in the event that you cause him to fold. In that sense, at this point, calling allows him to draw for "free" (because you could have charged him more). Of course, the question is, how likely is he to have one of these drawing hands, and if not, what are the pros and cons of raising as opposed to calling?