Llabb's Locks (NBA)

[craig r]

[ QUOTE ]
Llabb is having a hell of a run, hitting 65% of his posted plays. Where do you get off telling him it's not possible to be a winner when he posts that number of plays? I think you're totally out of line again, which does not seem to be uncommon for you. Kudos on your selection thus far Llabb. Good Luck.

[/ QUOTE ]

"Out of line, again". Where have I been out of line before. And if you notice, Llabb didn't seem to take any offense. In fact, he asked why I thought that. I also prefaced it with that it wasn't a personal attack.

But, you said it best, "having a hell of a run". Do you honestly think that he will be able to keep that up betting as many games as he does? If you do, we can place a wager on that as well.

craig

[craig r]

Hey Llaabb,

So, I guess now that somebody thinks that my original statement to you was a personal attack (which I know you didn't), I should answer some of your questions.

One positive thing that you are doing is only betting 1% of your bankroll per game. If you have that type of discipline, that is great. That will definitely keep you from going broke if you are a winning bettor. Since you don't know how much of a winning bettor you are, I wouldn't make adjustments; i.e. use a Kelly strategy or wager more based on the EV you have. I think using a weighted strategy is good if know how much EV each play is. But, for right now, I would just bet 1%.

I don't know if you can beat the juice, because I don't know what you are laying. Obviously if you are laying -104, you don't have to win nearly the same % as if you are laying -110.

Also, if you are betting a lot of games, you want to get the best possible line. Dougozzzz and I were doing some analysis tonight, and it is amazing how much 1 point makes a difference and cuts into the % you will win, lose, or push. So, if the line opened at -3 and then moved to -4, I would probably lay off of it. Sure, sometimes you will kick yourself afterwards for the pointspread not really mattering, but hindsight is always 20/20, because you will also curse yourself if you bet it at -4 and the team only won by 3 (I wouldn't worry about betting a worse number about 1.5 points off from the opening line on big spreads).

Just so you know, this season I have placed (these are not my own plays) 29 NBA bets with a record of 18-10-1. This gives me approx. 64%. I don't believe there is anyway for me to keep this up, no matter how much line shopping I do. But, with reduced juice, I will lose much less on my losses.

This may not be you, but usually when I see somebody betting a lot of 2Hs on the same side that they bet the game, it means they are steaming. I see you do this a lot. Once again, I could be wrong, and it might be what you think is a good calculated bet.

Also, as far as you asking why I don't think it is possible for someone to win placing as many bets as you do, it is because I have never seen anybody do it. The lines are just too "sharp" for this too be possible.

Also, somebody had mentioned that you bet 10 plays out of 100 possible plays. If you take out the quarter bets (which I can't remember if you bet or not) then there were a total of 66 bets today (assuming you don't bet both sides). 10/66 is quite a bit.

craig

[llabb]

Last night: 5-8
YTD: 62-45

Bad night evens out the previous good night, will calculate juice later. Thanks to all for the words, both the encouragement and constructive criticism. Will get to that later, just posting plays for now.

Ind -8
Phi -5
Phi/Tor U 207
Bos -5.5
LAL -5
LAL/NYK U 181
Mil +7
Den/NOK O 185

llabb's, i know you're already going this way, but isn't philly at toronto an absolute lock tonight... philly is best road team in league by teamrankings.com, toronto is the worst home and worst team by miles.

my comment about new look raptors was premature. no matter what, our defense stinks. philly was looking at one point to score 40 in first quarter last night. tonight is the return and AI is such a road-warrior.

you are going to hear huge buzz about how well villaneuva and bosh play together, but it doesn't matter. they aren't going to win us any games. or anything, just put up big scoring/rebounding #'s ala antwaan when he was in GSW.

spread is at a level 4.5, where raptors can't really cover in garbage time, 7 or 8 would be another story.

[llabb]

Few more:

Mil/GS O 204.5
Pho -5
Bos 1H -3
Ind 1H -4.5

[llabb]

Sorry, didn't get back here until now, and that game started a short while ago. You've been absolutely right about how horrible Toronto is, though, and I imagine you've profited nicely off of it.

I agree with your points, and Philly is already off to a huge 13 pt lead.

It would have been a 2u play, except that I think there's more risk with the teams playing each other back-to-back directly, and going to the other team's home court. There's some satisfaction for Philly in the nice win they just had, and while they should still win tonight, there's probably less fire than last night. And as much as I'd like there to be, there's never such a thing as an absolute lock. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[llabb]

Early Thurs:

Hou/SA U 176.5

[llabb]

Phi/Tor 2H U 102.5

1st Q was crazy, both sides shooting 75% and 100% from 3. 2nd Q more normal now, and 2H should go under if last night's game is any indication, unless they can stay on fire over 50% the entire game.

[llabb]

Sea/Bos 2H U 102

Another game that should come back to earth.

[llabb]

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving and break! Feeling refreshed after a nice vacation, and ready to get back to capping. Have cleared my head after some bad losses, and am ready to buckle down and get more serious. Will try to limit my games a little more, as others have suggested (although I'll still probably be playing too many games for most), and will cut out most 2H plays.

Going to focus on improving, then stepping up units. Thinking about taking slightly worse lines in some spots, in order to get positive odds. For example, I will usually buy the half-point for 5 cents or less, and may "sell" the half points at 9 cents or more. Taking a line that is 1 pt worse will usually result in a +103 to +110 line, which I think may help my units wins more than the point does. Has anyone ever tried this?

Best wishes to all.