Quiz #2

[Ed Miller]

Obviously, sometimes you raise the flop, and then you get to raise the turn as well. And sometimes you don't raise the flop, but they check to you on the turn anyway.

But raising the flop doesn't give you much value and makes it significantly less likely that you will be able to take advantage of the turn action.

[GuyOnTilt]

Ya.. I don't understand why Vehn, GoT, JT, and company wanted to fold in #8. You are getting like 6-to-1 to call. It kinda looks like you might be beat... but it don't look 6-to-1 against you.

Since there's 2 raisers after your bet, one of them has something other than trips. There just aren't enough Jacks to go around. So 6:1 not closing the action here just isn't enough for me to call unless one of your opponents is retarded and likes to run insane river bluffs. I don't think someone check-3-bets this river without at least a strong Jack (which is still stupid), so the question is whether the first raiser would make that play 16% of the time on a bluff.

Again, remember that they can't both have trips.

I still like folding on #8.

GoT

[brian0729]

I have been wanting to get to this for days. But just now getting the chance. I havent read any replys

1. Call
2. Call
3. Fold
4. Bet
5. Call
6. Call
7. Fold
8. Fold

[uuDevil]

The odds one of your opponents has flopped a flush are about 23:1. However, you have 5 opponents, so the odds you are against a made flush are about 3.8:1. I got these numbers as follows:

There are 47 unseen cards.
Ten of these are of the same suit as the flop.
An opponent has p=(10 choose 2)=90 ways to hold suited hole cards.
There are P=(47 choose 2)= 1081 total hands he could be holding.
So the probability he has a flush is p/P=.0416 so the odds are: (1-.0416)/.0416=23 to 1. With 5 opponents, p=.0416*5 -> odds=3.8:1.

However, this assumes all hands are equally likely. Not a good assumption, especially considering the preflop and flop action. So you are correct, the number
is wrong.... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[EVIL]

1. Call
2. Call
3. Fold
4. Bet
5. Fold
6. Call
7. Fold
8. Fold

[CrackerZack]

The key here is the stakes. My GF plays .50/1.00 on party and 1/2 on party and would never ever lay this down, and she's right. You're expecting them to have big hands, and usually so am I. She's expecting them to turn over something and jacks for 2 pair because they're retarded. Usually, she's right in these situations. I try to explain that as you move up, this doesn't happen, but it does at micro-stakes.

As for #1, I'd like to wait to raise because I'm scared of the turn, but raising on the flop isn't horrible, but less profitable or a bit more losing (if any raise is losing) than waiting.

[Ed Miller]

I try to explain that as you move up, this doesn't happen, but it does at micro-stakes.

It happens even when you move up. Too many people behave like freak shows to lay down trips in this spot, I think.

[Joe Tall]

because I'm still learning.

Kong is right. A call is in order in hand #1 and it's clear.

Thanks Kong and Fes, great thread.

Peace,
Joe Tall