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#71
10-14-2005, 01:19 PM
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 Turn
[ QUOTE ]
I disagree greatly with most of the panel on this hand. I think this is a case of one of two situations. Either the hero is way ahead, or he is way behind. There are several possible hands that the villainn could have that we would ave soundly beat, AJ, possibly KJ, AT, AQ, JdTd and unlikely KQ JT or QQ. Now, just as likely (if not MORE likely), the villain could be holding AA, KK, JJ, AK, AKs (diamonds would be bad) and an unlikely QT. With how things have played out so far, it is VERY likely that the villain has the better hand here. Another question would be what hands could our villain be putting the hero on here? I would think that he would put our range at something similar. So, unless he is a real donk, I seriously doubt he would be betting 800 on this turn. That bet just asks for the hero to push (as many of you have decided to do). If the villain is holding AA, hero is drawing dead. Against KK, hero has 2 outs; JJ - 4, AKs chop or the villain has 9 outs to draw the nut flush, and the unlikely QT where the hero also has 4 outs. With the reraise on the flop, I don't see the villain (if he is an even reasonably good player) continuing to play any of the hands that the hero can beat. I think that this is clearly a fold situation. Barring further information, I am going to assume that the villain is a good player. I think that it is close, but I am going to give the villain credit for having a strong hand here and let it go. If the villain is a bad enough player to be continuing to play a marginal hand that far against that kind of betting, that I will be able to get my chips back on later hands. [/ QUOTE ] 
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#74
10-14-2005, 02:36 PM
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 Turn
I don't know that his hand is any more defined, but if it is, then I am more concerned. He had to expect us to call a minbet with most aces, so this feels like a milking bet. But he could be milking with JJ/QT, or with AJ/KJ that is confused by your call and thinks you have AQ or something. On balance, I think the weighting is more towards him having JJ/QT however.
Anyway, I push, since stacks will be so short after i call there is no way either of us can really fold. With deeper stacks, I would call to let worse hands continue betting. -g
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#75
10-14-2005, 03:10 PM
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 Turn
[ QUOTE ]
I don't know that his hand is any more defined, but if it is, then I am more concerned. He had to expect us to call a minbet with most aces, so this feels like a milking bet. But he could be milking with JJ/QT, or with AJ/KJ that is confused by your call and thinks you have AQ or something. On balance, I think the weighting is more towards him having JJ/QT however. Anyway, I push, since stacks will be so short after i call there is no way either of us can really fold. With deeper stacks, I would call to let worse hands continue betting. -g [/ QUOTE ] The more I think about this, the less happy I am in this spot. I just don't see AJ or KJ betting 800 here. If he's a donk, then i think he pushes AJ/KJ here and bets 800 with QT. If he's good, then he's likely to figure you have 4-6 outs and can milk like this, but he checks KJ/AJ for the same reasons we called on the flop. I still don't think I can do anything but push, but my gut read is that we're in trouble here. It's more a question of how confident i am in my read. I'll guess without doing math that you need something like 70-80% confidence to make folding correct. meh, i don't know you'll ever have that much confidence in a party 100 but maybe Gig can. -g
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#76
10-14-2005, 03:26 PM
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 Turn
[ QUOTE ]
This hand is really boring. Is the interesting part the diff between calling the minraise and pushing? I dont get it. Hero obviously can not fold here. Hero obviously pushes because opponent will call it off with many type of pair/draw type hands that he might fold on the river... as well as many other hands that are made and worse and might fold to a scare card like an ace due to counterfitting problems or whatever. Perscribe this hand to insomniacs it will put them to bed. -Jason [/ QUOTE ] I agree 100%. Shove turn, and keep this hand to yourself because it's nothing exciting.
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#77
10-14-2005, 03:44 PM
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 Turn
Assume we're way ahead or behind.
If villian's ahead (with AA, KK, JJ, or QT), there's little difference between pushing and calling because villian likely will put hero all-in on the river. If hero's ahead, calling is better than pushing because it's more likely to induce villian to throw the rest of his chips in the middle by betting the river. Therefore, call the turn. On the river, if villian pushes, call. If villian checks (perhaps to induce a push by hero), check. The Shadow
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#79
10-14-2005, 03:48 PM
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 Turn
i think u guys are getting worried that we are beat because of the fact that this is a 'masters' hand and u have a pre-conceived notion that the hand has to have a 'twist' or something
the fact is, this hand got lots of discussion and varying recommendations pf,on the flop (twice), and now here, where people have made compelling arguments for fold/call/push the fact that there is this much discussion makes this a good hand...remember, it's not about what u do, but why u come to that conclusion and do it...and we've seen lots of discussion on why people would do a variety of things in this hand i'm sure a lot of people have learned a lot from this hand's discussions...that's the point of this series, and the reason that i've come over from the stt forum to read this
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#80
10-14-2005, 03:55 PM
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 Turn
[ QUOTE ]
If hero's ahead, calling is better than pushing because it's more likely to induce villian to throw the rest of his chips in the middle by betting the river. Therefore, call the turn. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree, if Hero is ahead I think pushing is better than calling because the villain has outs. Villain could be holding QQ, KJ, AJ, TT? You have to charge him for the opportunity to suck out on you. (Also, in your analysis of calling is better if you're ahead or behind, I think it should be mentioned that you want to push if the villain is also holding AK.)
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