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#72
08-17-2005, 11:38 PM
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Re: Please help, need advice (long)
This has certainly been an amusing little thread (that I skimmed through parts of admittedly...it's kinda long afterall).
to milenko if he is indeed serious in these posts (some of this discussion is so ludicrous that one does suspect it might not be on the up-and-up): $150/hour is not possible in the long-run on 9/18. $20/hour is. Maybe $30-$35 for really superior players. Losing streaks happen. Bad players draw out on you all the time. That happens too. Even the best pros will probably only win in 2/3 of their sessions it has been estimated. That means you can expect to lose in 33-40% of your sessions most likely (IF you are actually a winning player...and that's a big IF). So when you are calculating your hourly-rate you are not allowed to just discount the times you lost and only look at those times you won. For 1BB-2BB/hr you might have a deviation of 10 per hour. That means that one hour you will win 10BB's...and the next hour you will lose 9BB's. And so on and so on and it will happen over and over again. After a stretch of 30k hands or so you start to get an idea of what kind of win-rate you might have at a given limit because you are at least beginning to get through some of those peaks and valleys and find out where you really stand. 30k hands would be about 300 hours playing in a live casino...and in the past 6 months I doubt you have played that much yet. So you probably don't even know whether you are a winning player or not. -------------------------------- You most obviously have absolutely no grasp of the 'long-run' and the kind of variance that is inherent in poker. You complain about the times that you lose. This happens to every single player anywhere and everywhere. Over and over again. -------------------------------- I too am curious how it would be possible to have read SSHE and not know what a BB is. ----------------------------- I have played professionally (mostly online) for a little over a year now. I like it. I have been asked by several aspiring players via threads like these and via private-messages whether I think they have a shot at making it as a pro (playing full-time for income) or whether I think they are out of their mind. I am very honest in my assessment with those who ask the question. I am not afraid to tell someone "go of it. Based on what you have told me I think you can definitely do it." Obviously I'll also go the other way and will not be bashful about telling someone that they shouldn't do it or that their hunch is correct that they probably aren't QUITE ready yet but they could get there in the future if they keep working on it. Obviously I'm just stating my opinion and it's not necessarily gospel...but I believe I'm a pretty good judge on these matters. I know you've gotten quite defensive about some of the replies you've received in this thread and I have no reason to believe that this won't happen again..but I'm going to tell you anyway. Based on what I have read there is absolutely no way you would succeed as a pro. In fact, you are possibly the least-qualified candidate to do this of ALL the "should I go pro?" posters on these forums (of the one's I have seen anyway). You lack some VERY basic knowledge of the game and what you need to do in order to succeed. We're not talking about the slightly more complex stuff here that I think you should know also....just the REALLY basic stuff. You don't understand variance...you have no idea what kind of win-rate is realistic at a given limit...you seem only moderately willing to listen to some of the solid advice given to you in this thread. I think I skimmed past something that read along the lines of a 'double-up and then quit to lock-up my victory' type of philosophy which is also especially bad. You won't believe this either most likely because you'll say "How can you know that if you have never even seen me play?" ....but..... there is almost zero chance that your actual play of your poker-hands is as good as you think it is. and I highly doubt that you are a long-term winner at this game in the first place. Almost every long-term winning player who has posted in this thread is nodding in agreement right now about the idea that there is no way that this guy actually is even a winning player. Think about that. All these long-term winners...and we can see it from a zillion miles away. You might think we don't know what the hell we're doing...we're all just stuck up snobs who think we know everything...perhaps you are the exception to this rule...etc etc. Well...everyone else thinks they are the exception too. It's up to you to decide whether you want to open your mind to the possibility that some of the long-term winners here REALLY DO know what the hell they're talking about when they speculate that you probably aren't a long-term winner in the first place and that your sample-size regarding the number of hands you have played is probably REALLY small. But even if you are good enough to beat the games...your complete lack of understanding regarding some really basic concepts makes you an incredibly bad candidate to consider playing this game professionally as things stand now. Your stubborness on some of these issues leads me to believe that you will never be good enough to play this game full-time for income (but I'm not 100% certain of that part...there have been a couple others on these forums who have impressed me in their ability to drop their total stubborness, listen a bit more, learn, and actually pull it off) 
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#73
08-17-2005, 11:54 PM
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Re: Please help, need advice (long)
Microbob,
That was a great post, articulated what we've all been saying and hit all the points. Too bad he's gone, http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...14&fpart=1 He might just have listened to you.
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#74
08-17-2005, 11:57 PM
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Re: Please help, need advice (long)
[ QUOTE ]
As for becoming food for sharks in a 5/10 game, I assure you that I do not play that badly. I am actually a very tight, aggressive player who fully understands most of what I have read in Sklansky's books. I have studied "SSHE" several times, and even bring it with me to the casino and read it while waiting for a table or eating lunch/dinner. I am not as -small- a fish as you apparently think I am. [/ QUOTE ] Just when I thought that this thread couldn't get any more amusing...
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