|
|
#71
11-03-2005, 08:50 AM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: On the Edge - IX
[ QUOTE ]
Here's my next question though: How much do you think you gain by showing down here after calling a river bet with Q6o! You've been playing ABC poker so far today, but the whole table sees how you just super-agroed Q6o with no flush draw! I think this has +EV consdierations to it. Sure, you could always flip your cards after he folds, but I think that is rude. Better to show off your "poor" playing ability by calling a river bet here with Q6o!!! [/ QUOTE ] Something along these lines came up in the massive OTE 8 thread.... There are metagame considerations to a lot of plays, but I try not to make that the primary objective (especially not in an article). I think everyone is best served from these pieces if one were to imagine that the hand in question were the last (or close to the last) hand and you were soon to be picking up your chips and walking away, never to see any of your opposition again. Sure, many of us play with a lot of the same people on a regular basis; that isn't the case for everyone. I'm not saying it's a bad idea to write with metagame considerations in mind, but I have not here. I made the play in this hand that I thought was the most profitable line in the hand. And calling the river, versus raising, while it may have gotten me a showdown and lots of additional action later on, may also have lost me the pot... ...and it may have been the last hand before I got up, picked up my chips, and never played another hand with these people. Barron Vangor Toth BarronVangorToth.com 
|
|
#72
11-03-2005, 10:30 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: On the Edge - IX
I think everyone is best served from these pieces if one were to imagine that the hand in question were the last (or close to the last) hand and you were soon to be picking up your chips and walking away, never to see any of your opposition again.
when i am on last round of day, i am tight as a clam, not loose and tricky. if i had a good session, i want to preserve it and not risk the entire session on a tricky move like this (that i consider EV-). if i am losing, i want to mitigate the damage and not double my loss. respectfully. GM
|
|
#74
11-03-2005, 11:13 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: On the Edge - IX
[ QUOTE ]
if i had a good session, i want to preserve it and not risk the entire session on a tricky move like this (that i consider EV-). if i am losing, i want to mitigate the damage and not double my loss. [/ QUOTE ] The key to your answer is that you think it is -EV. If that is the case, it doesn't matter when it takes place. I believe it is +EV. Likewise, it doesn't matter when it occurs. Barron Vangor Toth BarronVangorToth.com
|
|
#75
11-03-2005, 11:15 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: On the Edge - IX
[ QUOTE ]
Why do you tilt your head back when you take a picture? [/ QUOTE ] I don't. (At least not on purpose.) I'm guessing that it probably has something to do with me being about a foot and a half taller than my friend who took that picture. Barron Vangor Toth BarronVangorToth.com
|
|
#76
11-03-2005, 04:32 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: On the Edge - IX
[ QUOTE ]
What burns me the most about BVT's articles is that he fails to see that it all comes down to math. Ignoring the (possible) mistakes made on the other streets and concentrating on the river: If Q-high is good here, he wins this hand no matter what (unless he folds to a 3-bet, but we will ignore the 3-bet possibility for simplicity's sake). So we can ignore the times that Q-high is good. The question is, how oftern does your opponent bet out here with a hand that he will fold if raised? 1) opponent does this on a Stone Cold Bluff. This seems the most likely bet here. I'd think that 80% of the time, that is what this bet is. 2) Opponent is worried you'll check behind and wants to get value on the hand he'll never fold. I think this is the case about 15% of the time. Most likely holding would be 23o. Notice that villian just made his hand if this is his holding. 3) Villian bets out a very weak hand. This would make no sense. He knows you're not folding an ace/king/flush/straight, and he can be pretty damn sure that hero's not folding any pair given villian's rep. So all this bet would do is make you fold Q-high, J-high, etc, etc. If he has a low pair, he wants you to bluff these hands anyway, so he should check. But villians are not always rational, so 5% of the time he is betting a weak pair here. So, the question is, of that 5% when he bets out his small pair, how often does he toss it to a raise? Shall we say 60% of the time? Is that too high? So, of the 20% times that Qhigh is no good, we pay an extra bet to a better hand 85% of the time. 15% of the time, we get a better hand to fold. Call it 9.5BBs in the pot (assumes that you are paying 1BB on this river regardless). So... this is (by these numbers) actually +EV, though very slightly. Here's my next question though: How much do you think you gain by showing down here after calling a river bet with Q6o! You've been playing ABC poker so far today, but the whole table sees how you just super-agroed Q6o with no flush draw! I think this has +EV consdierations to it. Sure, you could always flip your cards after he folds, but I think that is rude. Better to show off your "poor" playing ability by calling a river bet here with Q6o!!! [/ QUOTE ] I think your 5% figure is entirely too low. Given Barron's image it's entirely likely that the villain has something like a pair of 4's, and thinks his hand is no good. Therefore he's "bluffing" when the ace comes out to try and get Barron to fold a better hand in case the ace didn't help him. I think a raise is far better than a call on the river.
|
|
#77
11-04-2005, 05:46 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: On the Edge - IX
Hi Everyone:
First off I haven't read all the posts so I may be repeating what others have said. Jumping to the end of the article, the bet on the river is a likely bluff. That's because with that board most players would often check even if the ace helped them. So given the size of the pot you can't fold, and give that Barron's hand is only queen high, a raise becomes necessary even though it will frequently cost two bets (when called). The other aspect of the article is that there are very few opponents you can know this well and be this sure about their hands. At least that's the case for me. Of course when you can read someone to this degree you have a great advantage over them. This brings up another point. Given that Barron is so absolutely sure his opponent has a draw on the flop, why raise him there and get him to stop bluffing? I think a better strategy would be to see if a blank hits the turn and then raise or perhaps wait until the river to raise. best wishes, mason
|
|
#78
11-05-2005, 08:37 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: On the Edge - IX
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Why do you tilt your head back when you take a picture? [/ QUOTE ] I don't. (At least not on purpose.) I'm guessing that it probably has something to do with me being about a foot and a half taller than my friend who took that picture. Barron Vangor Toth BarronVangorToth.com [/ QUOTE ] wouldn't it make more sense to appear the way you did if your friend was in fact a foot and a half taller than you?
|
|
#79
11-06-2005, 07:12 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: On the Edge - IX
[ QUOTE ]
wouldn't it make more sense to appear the way you did if your friend was in fact a foot and a half taller than you? [/ QUOTE ] ? No. Barron Vangor Toth BarronVangorToth.com
|
|
#80
11-06-2005, 09:50 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Can\'t wait for Part XXV
Another strategy article from an average 2+2 lower middle limit player that would have been more enlightening, especially for the author, if it was posted in the Mid-High forum.
Your articles suggest you're at the same level of expertise as most others here who play the same limits, and yet you've elevated yourself to a leadership writer/strategist position. The jump looks like it was pre-mature, as evidenced by the sound and smarter way of playing the flop/turn in this hand suggested by your critics. Which you of course blindly dismiss in your quest, just like the last one.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
