now that we've had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60?

[jetsonsdogcanfly]

and i apologize to everyone for brining back this thread.

what happened? i blacked out.

[Baulucky]

7.26BB/100. About 81k hands. Mainly 6-tabling.

[Diplomat]

Clearly you are folding too much.

-Diplomat

[ihardlyknowher]

[ QUOTE ]
I ran 100 samples of 100k hands each for a 1.80 wr, 16.90 sd player.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was wondering how you did your samples of 100K hands. Was it 1000 repetitions of groups of 100 with a wr=1.8 and sd=16.9 or 100K repitions of a single hand where wr=0.018 and sd=0.169?

Thanks.

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
Was it 1000 repetitions of groups of 100 with a wr=1.8 and sd=16.9 or 100K repitions of a single hand where wr=0.018 and sd=0.169?

[/ QUOTE ]

standard deviation doesn't work like that. an sd of 0.169bb/hand is far, far less than an sd of 16.9bb/100.

[ihardlyknowher]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Was it 1000 repetitions of groups of 100 with a wr=1.8 and sd=16.9 or 100K repitions of a single hand where wr=0.018 and sd=0.169?

[/ QUOTE ]

standard deviation doesn't work like that. an sd of 0.169bb/hand is far, far less than an sd of 16.9bb/100.

[/ QUOTE ]

A more interesting question, IMO, is which measure (per hand or per 100) is the best one for running poker simulations, given that each hand is an independent event.

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]

A more interesting question, IMO, is which measure (per hand or per 100) is the best one for running poker simulations, given that each hand is an independent event.

[/ QUOTE ]

i havent taken a stats course in a long time so my math might be a bit rusty, but i'm pretty sure it would make no difference.

[Mempho]

[ QUOTE ]
The quote thing is tired, yet:


[ QUOTE ]
GuyOnTilt,

This post is way too good for this thread.

Well done.

[/ QUOTE ]


Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com

[/ QUOTE ]

[Turning Stone Pro]

Total hands: 3,740
VPIP: 31.50
PF raise: 19.44
Fold SB to steal 69.84
Folb BB to steal 31.08
BB/hr: 10.94


So far, not too bad.

TSP

[MNpoker]

Here's a way to calculate EV and Variance using your Session notes.
Whether you want to believe the curve is normal or not is up to you, but according to statistical theory it really should be pretty close.

A) Column A be the number of hands played. (Each session will go on one row)
B) Column B be The number of Big Bets won / lost in the session.
C) Column C = Column B ^ 2 / Column A
D) Get the Sum of Column A (The total number of hands played)
E) The sum of Column C
F) The number of sessions (This will equal the number of rows)
G) Find the value of The Sum of Column C * 1 / N <-- the number in (F)
H) Find the sum of columnB / sum of column A. THIS IS YOUR AVERAGE WON PER HAND
I) Take the number found in (E) * (H) ^2 / (F)
J) Take the number in (G) - (J) <-- This is your VARIANCE PER HAND

Now to find your Confidence interval.
95% (Probability all at the top) = 1.645 * (Number of Hands * Variance Per Hand) ^ .5
For 90% use 1.282, 99% use 2.326, 99.9% use 3.090

So For example if your E(BB) per hand is .02
And you Variance Per hand is 3.5
And you have 20,000 hands.

You have a 80%* chance that your Expected win rate for 20K hands is between 20,000 * .02 +/- 1.282 (3.5 * 20000)^.5 =
400 +/- 339.18 OR between .3 and 3.7 BB per 100 hands.

* Note this is 2 sided so we goto 80%; 10% chance over the top and 10% under the bottom.

Or in other words A player with these figures has a 90%+ chance of actually being a positive player overall (and not just lucky). It's actually 93.47%.

Disclaimer: As people mentioned before these numbers assume you are playing the same game v. the same players and you are playing at the same skill level throughout.
Though if you are improving and the games on average are the same the number you come up with should actually be low.