QQ multiway with overcard on flop

[waynethetrain]

"but the likelyhood that one of the 4 players calling does hold an ace goes up as they call. "

This is the key point. Probability calculations become meaningless once there is betting on the flop and one or more players choose to continue playing. Action like that always suggests that the probability of an A being out there is higher than random probability calculations would indicate.

[waynethetrain]

Raise preflop.

Call flop, but only because the backdoor flush and backdoor STR8 give you some more potential outs if you are behind AAs. With that many callers in front of you, the random probabiity of someone having an A is meaningless. Just by their calling, the probability that someone has an A has skyrocketed.

When the turn was checked, I would start thinking that the BB had not bet an A, but instead, a flush draw. I would still check because I think the probability that a weak A is out there is fairly high. Again, forget random probabilities.

The river is tough. The pot is big enough to call 1 player, but 2 is tougher. It would depend on how I felt about the players.

[waynethetrain]

My thinking is almost identical to yours. I also would have considered a turn bet after everyone checked, but I probably would have just checked because I think the probability of a weak A being out there is still too high and the backdoor outs are gone.

Did you post a result? Just curious.

[Wario]

BB showed AJ.

Thanks for the responses.

[Nick Royale]

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The calculations show that I'm good here a lot of the time but they fail to give my opponents credit for any poker ability.

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You're right, the calculation are based on random hands so I don't think they matter that much, but I think they were intressting.

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The calculations show that I'm good here a lot of the time

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Actually, my latest calculation (the one I believe is most accurate so far) says Hero's only ahead 47% against random hands.

Other than that I reason about the same as you do. At micros I believe I'm behind the vast majority in this situation. Add to that, your opponents will have strong draws against you if you're ahead and your draw is weak if you're behind. I'll call the flop and fold the turn UI, as I previously stated. It might be weak tight, but I don't feel comfortable raising this flop.