Your ENTIRE bankroll on AA...do you do it?

[poker-penguin]

I think the correct Kelly Fraction is 70% of your bankroll here.

So, if I could replace 30% of my bankroll somehow I'd do it.

Otherwise, No, and WTF are you doing with your whole BR at the table?

[Kevroc]

We are told that there is alot of short-term luck in poker, and thats what makes it so profitable for the long term winners who grind it out.

We are also told to make +EV decisions at all times and not to be results oriented.

Well, AA HU PF is +EV however... short-term luck being what it is can crush our ENTIRE ROLL in one fell swoop.

I can see where our dear brown trout are torn here because of the edicts we hold so close to us.

But, clearly this is a NO vote.



"When you run, they'll follow you"

[Allinlife]

man it's a sweet thought just thinking about it.

[punter11235]

I dont know much about Kelly formula but I dont think it was proven to be optimal; its just an idea.
My thought is that it is too aggressive I would go with 1/4Kelly probably.

Best wishes

[bugstud]

um, how do I seperate BR and other money? just out of college and "playing" for a living.

[BigBaitsim (milo)]

This depends on the value you place on having a BR. My well-publicized original deal with Mrs. Milo is that she gave me $50 and authorization to gamble online with it, but that I could never add a dime to this. Two years later, and I'm playing mostly 5/10, with a more than adequate BR. My whole poker future on one hand? No way.

[dogmeat]

It is certainly interesting to hear both sides of this debate. The original poster said simply that you had a chance to use your whole bankroll (maybe you don't have your whole roll on the table, but would be allowed to call a monster bet - who knows, it wasn't spelled out), he did not mention your life's savings. Maybe none of you have any savings, cars, IRA's, stocks, homes with equity, or even credit, I don't know. So, maybe losing your bankroll would mean you could never play again.

I, on the other hand, could always get back into action. I would be very happy to risk my bankroll at the mentioned 85% odds.

Let me ask the question this way:

You are simply offered an 85% winning chance for your entire bankroll, and if your bankroll was the size of an average year's pay for somebody in the US (and let's say that number is about $50,000), would you risk it?

I would, because if I lost, I have zero fear that I wouldn't be able to make that much again in a year's time by starting with a very tiny amount of money. Personally, I could start back at the same limits, however, even if I couldn't,with as little as $500 I have no doubt I could parlay that into $50,000 by the end of 12 months. I couldn't do it if I had to support my family and make my mortgage all by myself, but if I could keep my earnings for a month or so, I could replenish pretty quickly. Couldn't you? Or would you just never risk as large an amount of money as your entire roll with an 85% chance of winning?

Dogmeat [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[Nigel]

Dogmeat - How many BB's do you have in your roll?

[Cubswin]

[ QUOTE ]
I have a full time non poker job. Yeah, losing my entire poker BR would suck, but I could recover fairly quickly.

I'm game.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Shoe]

If I was actually offered this, my immediate thought would be that this is a scam. Somehow it is rigged so they can take my whole bankroll.