i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,

[DarthIgnurnt]

[ QUOTE ]
Date / Time: 2005-11-15 15:37:00
Title: Chip Jett Eliminated on the Money Bubble
Jett shows pocket jacks, and Jacob shows Q-5.
When the flop came Q-7-5 ... Chip Jett is eliminated on the money bubble.


[/ QUOTE ]

There's your answer ... see Jacks no good. Easy fold.

I mean ... Using the information you have here, I think the EV of a push is negative, and not just slightly. While you will expect to gain chips, you are at such a chip disadvantage (avg chips = 67K, you = 10K or 12K or 22K or 0 based your decision), and the payout structure is such that the EV of your payout changes little (if at all) even if you double up.

And even if the decision to push was +EV (which it isn't), it's still not an easy decision for everyone.

I don't know who the player in question was. For me, 11K isn't life-changing, or even life-sweetening money, but it's not chicken sh*t either. Add in the confidence of cashing in a WPT event, and I fold even if it is slightly +EV.

Which it isn't.

Sklansky addresses this in one of his books (can't remember where).

If I offer you $1.02 for every time you correctly call a coin flip vs. $1.00 for me every time you incorrectly call it, and let you flip the coin as many times as you want forever, the slight amount in +EV makes this an easy decision.

How about if I offer you $102,000 vs. $100,000 for the same coin flip, but you can only flip it once.

A lot of people are in a position to take that bet instantly, including (apparently) a lot of posters here. Most people, including (apparently) me, aren't.

[PFrese]

Interestingly - I had almost this exact same scenario happen to me last night in a Stars 180. I was in the top 10, 18 pay. There were 20 left and we are about to go on break. I get QQ in the BB. Two limpers in MP to the chip leader (on the button). Tourney Chip leader pushes all in.

I thought about this post. I also thought that I can limp into the money no problem. The tiny amount of money that I would have won by limping into the money was not significant, but finally cashing in one of these things was very significant for my psyche! (see my other post). So, cashing was important, even if the money was not.

I put the TL on a range of JJ - 88, or AK, AQ. Maybe a few others. I cant imagine him doing this with AA or KK since it would shut out any action.

After using my entire clock, I decided that it was time to shoot for the FT rather than just cashing. I pushed, he flipped of TT and I held up.

I ended up coming in 4th, after coming to the FT as the chip leader. I am a bit dissappointed, but heck, I finally cashed in one of these!