Johnny Bax plays live too

[CardSharpCook]

There are a number of hands that can/should/might check/call this river. AJ, 66-TT, QQ, A5, etc, etc. You can even make a case for calling with ace-high. JB doesn't have to have 7, he doesn't have to have a boat. About the strongest hand that checks this river is 97. In fact, a check from any 7 would surprise me as there are a similarily large number of hands MLG should call this river with AND a very small number of hands that will raise this river.

[MLG]

For those of you who didn't read the cardplayer update, I bet 2k and bax called after a long think with 76s. I'll go through my decision point by point. I didn't raise the flop, because it lets bax get away from worse hands while making the pot pretty big and making it harder for me to get away from it if the flush draw hits (since i think there are lots of flush draws in his ranger here). When he leads the turn I pretty much eliminate any naked draws but include hands like AJ/KJ/QJ/J10 of diamonds which now are top pair plus flush draws. Also, since it would be hard to put me on a J, and easy to put me on a draw I certainly include 88/99/1010 in his range here, betting because he thinks he has the best hand. Now the river blanks and he checks. Now, here's the thing, there are exactly 3 hands that he can hold with a 7 in them, A7 of spades, 87 of spades, 76 of spades while I think there are a lot of other decent made hands he can hold here. 22 actually, 6 88, 6 99, 6 1010, J10 of diamonds, JQ of diamonds, JK of diamonds, AJ of diamonds. Lets discount that because a lot of the time he will check the turn with those hands, so lets call it 15. Therefore, if he calls more than 1/5 of the time when he's holding those hands its a good bet fore me. I certainly think Bax is good enough to put me on a busted draw and try to snap me off often enough to make the bet.

[Lloyd]

And what if he raises you? Since you know that he knows that you could have a wide range of hands, he could also have a wide range of hands. That's why I don't like betting. I think we'd have to call a raise and I wouldn't be happy with it.

[MLG]

if he raises me its a turbo muck. bax is not raising on a bluff here pretty much ever.

[schwza]

why can't he have clubs? or suited one-gappers? obv. the one-gappers are a little less likely than connectors, but not by that much.

[Exitonly]

I agree with your analysis, and definitely think you get called by worse hands often enough.. and i wouldnt be particuarly afraid of a cheeck raise on the river, just doesnt seem likely.

[woodguy]

I didn't even give diamond/pair combo's a thought as I tend not to semi-bluff flush draws OOP on paired boards in multiway pots.

Do you think he semi-bluffs a flush draw with no pair into 7 players on the flop enough to include those hands?

Wouldn't you(if you were Bax) be concerned about getting raised off your draw by a 7 behind you or the BB(PFR) c/r? (assuming the BB is waiting to see what the action on the table is before deciding to continue with his hand)

I just don't think that its likely he's on draw here.

Am I wrong?

Regards,
Woodguy

[Roman]

I agree with your reasoning in this hand, A raise on the turn works just as well imho, no reason to let him hit the draw you feel he has 4/5 times in this spot. Maybe he will even find a fold for 76s/87s.
On the river I would expand his range to include the occasional 44 and JJ thinking you missed your draw and trying to snap you off.

[CardSharpCook]

Nice analysis on his possible holdings. I didn't think it through to realize he can ONLY have 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]X [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] if he has a 7.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
why can't he have clubs? or suited one-gappers? obv. the one-gappers are a little less likely than connectors, but not by that much.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, i'm an idiot. because MLG has clubs.

i think including the one-gappers is still legit though.