On the Edge - IX

[BarronVangorToth]

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you could have said this 5 posts ago and i wouldn't have been arguing with "semantics" though a pair on this board is not a draw at all imo. what, you only have aces here?

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Let's not drift with hysteria.


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anyways, could you please answer one of my posts about why you feel 3-betting the flop is better than just calling it and then raising the turn? specifically when it comes to your statement that it allows you to raise a turn donk, which you pretty much discourage him from doing by 3betting the flop.

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Check back through my posts in this thread.

Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com

[CardSharpCook]

So we are all agreed that "hero" had the best hand on every street?

[StellarWind]

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Given my image, I would consider that a drawing hand.

Regardless, find hands that you consider drawing hands that have a 4 or 5.

If you can't, it's semantics.

If you can, you get the point.


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It's not just semantics. It's the poker judgment that in this heads up situation any pair is a probable best hand with outs and should be played as such.

It's also the experience judgment that any player who would defend his blind with random small cards would feel that a pair was a made hand in this situation. The sort of weak-tight player who always sees AA in the PFR's hand doesn't defend with trash.

I can accept that you meant to include small pairs in the hands he would checkraise with. It's your read and maybe you didn't express yourself the way I would have. But this change makes it a completely different hand and article. I should forget all my previous analysis and start over from scratch.

[pipes]

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Preflop, what was your estimation of the chances that both blinds folded?

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Relatively high. I can't say an exact percentage. Let's say 75% or so.


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So the BB was a calling station earlier when only getting 3 to 1, but yet you had supreme confidence they would fold to your raise even though they were getting better pot odds in this situation?

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This sentence shows a lot of misconceptions. Defending against someone who has shown trash does not a calling station make. I had shown down few hands at this point.


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Alot about this article just doesn't seem right. Ever see the movie Shattered Glass?

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Yes, and if you want to have a reasonable debate on the merits of my article, please don't insult me with nonsense.

Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com

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Maybe calling station is not the best word, but if they have shown a propensity to defend their blinds on every single one of his 'Cigarette Cutoff Steals' (and there was alot of them, wow) then the chance that they would defend getting higher odds seems more likely.

But if I was writing a story, I'd have them fold as well.

Enjoy your 15 minutes of fame.

[TwoNiner]

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I think Baron is laughing at all of us behind our backs. He goes and writes these parodies of poker strategy (like his website) and we suckers think he's serious and start to critique them seriously.

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I personally like this one, it's very beleivable. web page

[BarronVangorToth]

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So we are all agreed that "hero" had the best hand on every street?

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Perhaps. But not necessarily.

Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com

[BarronVangorToth]

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I personally like this one, it's very beleivable. web page

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I was going to quote this earlier in the day when someone asked about me getting picked off, and this is the closest that I've come (in the third part) but ... it still worked out.

I have to stress again before people find this "standard" material is that, as I've said, I'm fortunate if I can get 1 poker story / 1,000 hands.

ABC works best ... but you need the non-traditional as well. Unfortunately, I'm ultimately too conservative to try these types of things as often as I ought to.

Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com

[BarronVangorToth]

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Maybe calling station is not the best word, but if they have shown a propensity to defend their blinds on every single one of his 'Cigarette Cutoff Steals' (and there was alot of them, wow) then the chance that they would defend getting higher odds seems more likely.


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True. But you have to remember I raised, not him. I know a few early on during this discussion were mistaken as to the pre-flop action. Suffice it to say that if he had raised as he always had done, this wouldn't be an issue as I would've folded. And, yes, then their chances of defending increases.

Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com

[Chris Daddy Cool]

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Quote:
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you could have said this 5 posts ago and i wouldn't have been arguing with "semantics" though a pair on this board is not a draw at all imo. what, you only have aces here?


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Let's not drift with hysteria.


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Could you please explain to me as if I were a 5 year old what you mean by this? If it was meant to be funny or sarcastic could you explain to me how it is?


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anyways, could you please answer one of my posts about why you feel 3-betting the flop is better than just calling it and then raising the turn? specifically when it comes to your statement that it allows you to raise a turn donk, which you pretty much discourage him from doing by 3betting the flop.


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Check back through my posts in this thread.


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I have. And could you please point out the specific post to me as if I were a 5 year old how you explain it?

[CardSharpCook]

What burns me the most about BVT's articles is that he fails to see that it all comes down to math. Ignoring the (possible) mistakes made on the other streets and concentrating on the river:

If Q-high is good here, he wins this hand no matter what (unless he folds to a 3-bet, but we will ignore the 3-bet possibility for simplicity's sake). So we can ignore the times that Q-high is good.

The question is, how oftern does your opponent bet out here with a hand that he will fold if raised?

1) opponent does this on a Stone Cold Bluff.
This seems the most likely bet here. I'd think that 80% of the time, that is what this bet is.

2) Opponent is worried you'll check behind and wants to get value on the hand he'll never fold. I think this is the case about 15% of the time. Most likely holding would be 23o. Notice that villian just made his hand if this is his holding.

3) Villian bets out a very weak hand. This would make no sense. He knows you're not folding an ace/king/flush/straight, and he can be pretty damn sure that hero's not folding any pair given villian's rep. So all this bet would do is make you fold Q-high, J-high, etc, etc. If he has a low pair, he wants you to bluff these hands anyway, so he should check. But villians are not always rational, so 5% of the time he is betting a weak pair here.

So, the question is, of that 5% when he bets out his small pair, how often does he toss it to a raise? Shall we say 60% of the time? Is that too high?

So, of the 20% times that Qhigh is no good, we pay an extra bet to a better hand 85% of the time. 15% of the time, we get a better hand to fold. Call it 9.5BBs in the pot (assumes that you are paying 1BB on this river regardless). So... this is (by these numbers) actually +EV, though very slightly.

Here's my next question though: How much do you think you gain by showing down here after calling a river bet with Q6o! You've been playing ABC poker so far today, but the whole table sees how you just super-agroed Q6o with no flush draw! I think this has +EV consdierations to it. Sure, you could always flip your cards after he folds, but I think that is rude. Better to show off your "poor" playing ability by calling a river bet here with Q6o!!!