Admitting defeat

[Yeti]

OK. Can't really remember. Wasn't trying to be an ass. Much [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Good luck, it was a very wise post.

[Baulucky]

[ QUOTE ]
In a LONG day, I can get in almost twice as many hands.

[/ QUOTE ] That's 4K hands.

[ QUOTE ]
I almost never have to book a losing day.


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Remember, online 4-tabling, you can get almost as many hands in a long day as you could in a reasonable (but short) MONTH of casino play.

[/ QUOTE ] 4K hands 4-tabling in 1 day?.

[ QUOTE ]
I have about 100K hands at 30/60 and about 1.9bb/100.

[/ QUOTE ] That's 25 LONG days only?.

[ QUOTE ]
Of course my losing day % may be higher than I remember

[/ QUOTE ] I think so, too.

So, my question is are you a POKER GOD or are you bluffing?.

Occam's Razor says that you are bluffing. Me too. I choose to RAISE and RERAISE you.

Or maybe you just suffer from selective memory.

[Jdanz]

hey my sn is hottyhazel i was playing 6 tables and wasn't really concentrating on the two i was at with you, but i'd just like to know what my stupid play was, as i don't think i played very well that session.

(Mostly i think not being able to fold when behind, but i'd still like to hear what you thought if you remeber playing with me).

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
justin, below 16 isn't impossible...mine is 15.5bb/100

and ive had PLENTY of losing days.

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, in that case it's closer to about 3% or 4%, which is really making me question the validity of using these type of formulas for bb/100 stats, including the confidence intervals that have been commonly done in the past.

[bicyclekick]

[ QUOTE ]
hey my sn is hottyhazel i was playing 6 tables and wasn't really concentrating on the two i was at with you, but i'd just like to know what my stupid play was, as i don't think i played very well that session.

(Mostly i think not being able to fold when behind, but i'd still like to hear what you thought if you remeber playing with me).

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I don't remember anything at all.

[LarsVegas]

Several, if not all of the Cryptologic skins allow multiple accounts in the same persons name. I am not sure (but it's very possible) that specific accounts have experienced 1000 big bets swings (there are definitely accounts with MUCH more than 500 big bets swings), but definitely persons who have endured a $500,000 swing in that game yes. Several. And I'm not going to name names. Most of them might play more heads-up and might have played a lot more hands on this limit than you.

Think about the old Sklanskly adage of 300 big bets. That was:

1) For substantial winners in a $10/20, $15/30 or whatever game, something of 1,5 big bets/hr or something. Meaning that usually, it would take something of a 500 big bet devation from their expected value to lose that 300 big bet bankroll during at 125 hr streak (they would figure to make 200 big bets, and instead lose 300 then). So even back THEN, David Sklanskly might have adviced a 500 big bet roll for a completely break-even or VERY slight winner. I am talking referring to break-even players, or just about that. 95% of the £150/300 are losing, breakeven or extremely slight winners, in terms of BB/hr.

2) The games Sklansky made this assessment for played far differently than £150/300 today. 70% of the hands are three or four bets before the flop, the bluffing frequency, aggression level is so perfect that most pots are bet on every street and those bets are usually called. The fluctations in this game is at another level than a $20/40 ring-game eight years ago.

3) The 300 big bet rule would, according to Sklanskly, give you something like a 99% certainity of not going broke. This is fine for most in a live game, where you get dealt 200 hands in a marathon live session - even though you will eventually be running quite a real risk of catching that 1% if you always keep you bankroll at excactly 300 big bets. However, online with 200 hands an hr at two lightning £150/300 tables, you keep taking new risks of eventually running into that 0,1% freak-freak-freak run of either extremely good or bad luck.

I can't see how you can't believe this. I think both theory and an honest man's experiences (through others admittedly) are telling you it is possible.

I'll admit I have been amazed myself at this. Some of these guys will regularly endure daily 150-200 big bet swings.

lars

[glen]

I think it was paluka that you are thinking of

[Peter_rus]

It's easy to have once in a while streak of 1000bb of you're play betweeen 0 and 0.5bb/100. You can be still winning player... GOOD winner in terms of money/hour at 100/200.

[bobbyi]

It's a big jump from "300 bets is not an adequate bankroll" to "1000 big bet swings are common".

[bernie]

Interesting post.

[ QUOTE ]
This is fine for most in a live game, where you get dealt 200 hands in a marathon live session -

[/ QUOTE ]

200 live hands = around 5-6 hours (shuffle machines @ approx 40 per hour)

5 hours is a marathon session?

b