Hand to Talk About - Page 7

Lestat · #61 10-07-2005, 01:03 AM

Did people fight to sit next to you during college exams?

mike l. · #62 10-07-2005, 01:04 AM

"Masons opponent is laggy, but he has shown considerable strength."

not really. he 3 bet preflop in a short game and then 3 bet the flop but failed to raise the turn when mason donk bet. given the guy is laggy that's pretty much par for the course and doesnt indicate any major strength. a flat call on the flop and raise on the turn wouldve been real strength.

"Bet has obvious merit, as there is a reasonably wide range of hands calling this river that will not bet it, especially given the preflop action."

especially at higher limits checking is like pressing a big red button on the back of their necks that reads "BET". when you add in all the hands that are draws that didnt get there, plus medium and small pairs that laggy could very well decide to muck if the rock of mason bets, checking gets the most money here. it's a perceptive, rather brilliant check.

rory · #63 10-07-2005, 01:07 AM

Fixed graph:

If you compare the new graph with the previous one, the effect of having less combinations of underpairs turns the call I made for bet into a check. This is because you have less of a chance of being penalized by missing a bet, since he has less combinations of hands making an underpair that he will check behind. At 70% chance of betting an underpair, the opponent has to be slowplaying a big hand only 10% of the time for a bet to be break even with a check. Even if the opponent were to never bet an underpair on the river, he only needs to be slowplaying a big hand 60% of the time for a check to be right.

TaintedRogue · #64 10-07-2005, 01:12 AM

Rory,

For the pairs, you are counting them as six each, and we obtain that total by (4*3)/2 to remove the permutations.

In the Kx examples, you are not removing the permutations, i.e., 2 kings * 4 queens = 8. That is the permutated total. 4 would be correct total to use with the pairs' totals.

rory · #65 10-07-2005, 01:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I see now, but you are not using the permutated total of getting the suited hands, i.e, two each, as you did with the others above.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I am confused. I thought I did not use permuations for all of the analysis:

AK:
A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] = 8 total

A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] = 1 total and so on.

Am I seriously confused? I didn't do anything like count A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] as two, which would be doing a permuation.

TaintedRogue · #66 10-07-2005, 01:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I guess I am confused. I thought I did not use permuations for all of the analysis:

AK:
A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] = 8 total

[/ QUOTE ]

My Bad........really freaking bad. I was taking the 4 aces * the 2 kings, and, for some ignorant reason, thinking I had to divide by two.
Sorry for taking up your time.

rory · #67 10-07-2005, 01:26 AM

No problem. Thanks for catching the pocket pair mistake!

mike l. · #68 10-07-2005, 01:32 AM

"I think the real probability of the opponent slowplaying a monster is probably closer to 10-20%"

that number makes no sense. id put it around 3% or less.

J.A.Sucker · #69 10-07-2005, 01:45 AM

Nice hand Mason. A couple of thoughts.

First, I assume that you are going to call down if raised on 4th street, right? If so, I like your plan.

Second, I would consider going 4 bets on the flop. If he 5 bets, call it down. Still, I like your play just fine.

Luv2DriveTT · #70 10-07-2005, 01:50 AM

Based on Mason's description of the opponent, this is exactly how I'd play the hand... the flop, turn and river all seem semi-standard to me. I'm actually confused by some of the responses I saw here from many of the posters I admire the most advocating a bet on the river, are they all misunderstanding the read on the villain?

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]