$10/20... Marginal 44 in MP...

[Lmn55d]

yes it is a boon and I considered that. However, these incorrect folds are not guarenteed. Most importantly, though, I think the info you gain by calling , seeing the action behind you, seeing the turn card, and seeing the action in front of you on the turn, plus the added ability to protect, far outweight the EV from incorrect flop folds.

[Catt]

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Every blue moon you win this hand unimproved all the other times you get shown a better hand or get sucked out on.

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I'm waiting for someone to actually say how often this is and show me some math behind it being incorrect. Then, I'll agree.

For now, I've seen nothing but people's gut reaction which is different than mine (I instantly raised) and that's not much of a discussion.

Someone prove me wrong please, it's very possible I am, but it is at least very close.

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I think oreogod messed up the ranges -- you're obviously drawing nearly dead to AQ, not beating it.

If his PF range is AK, AQ, AJs, and TT+ then there are

AK = 16
AJs = 4

20 hands you're beating and

AA = 6
KK = 6
QQ = 1
JJ = 6
TT = 6
AQ = 8

33 hands you're a serious dog to.

If the guy is seeing a river, then he's going to hit his 6-outer about 25% of the time [1 - (39/45)*(37/44)]. If we take a big shortcut** and just say that the hands you're beating are reduced by 25% (representing the redraw risk) then the ahead / behind ratio looks like 15/33. Cut out TT from his range 50% of the time and it's 15/30. Not very close. With a third guy in there you're obviously even more of a dog if he's willing to stick around.

Things get worse if we can assign reasonable hand ranges to the pre-flop CCers or we can infer much of anything from BB's flop call.

I'll almost never raise this here (I have before, but I would think it exceedingly rare). I could call with the right reads on the guys behind me (playing for set value only), but I'll often fold, too.

** This shortcut is not accurate, because one out (the A) hits all hands in his range that you're beating and the others only hit a subset. I'm not going to try and do the math, but it should be intuitive that an A is death and a K, or J represents a lot less risk.

[TheMetetron]

One thing to realize is that the fact I have to call if I don't raise, means that the raise is actually a lot more appealing. I'm really only putting in one extra SB with 18 already in there. It doesn't have to work much for it to be +EV.

[oreogod]

Ah, I misplaced the AQ...but OP also said ATs should be included...so the range is 33/24 BBs favor.

Regardless u have to call in this spot for set value. Its 17:1 when the pot hits u. figure one more caller, maybe both CO and Button, its 19:1 and you easily get 1-2bbs on the turn.

[Catt]

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One thing to realize is that the fact I have to call if I don't raise, means that the raise is actually a lot more appealing. I'm really only putting in one extra SB with 18 already in there. It doesn't have to work much for it to be +EV.

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Yeah - I can't do the math (or really don't want to) but if there is a substantial (maybe only decent?) chance that you fold the guys behind you, it could be a very good investment. If they're reasonably likely to call, it is wasting a small bet.

[Catt]

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Regardless u have to call in this spot for set value. Its 17:1 when the pot hits u. figure one more caller, maybe both CO and Button, its 19:1 and you easily get 1-2bbs on the turn.

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But he's not closing the action. Putting in 2 bets (or three) destroys his odds for drawing to the set and substantially weakens his implied odds when he hits. It is not an automatic call just because he's getting 17:1 immmediate. Just like the evaluation of whether raising is a good play, we need to make educated guesses about the chances of certain actions happening behind us. Calling here and having it raised by one guy and folded by another behind you (assume SB doesn't three-bet) means your effective odds on this street are 21:2 and now you have to make up 10 BBs when you spike a 4 to make the flop calls good.

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Ah, I misplaced the AQ...but OP also said ATs should be included...so the range is 33/24 BBs favor.

Regardless u have to call in this spot for set value. Its 17:1 when the pot hits u. figure one more caller, maybe both CO and Button, its 19:1 and you easily get 1-2bbs on the turn.

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That's great...IF...no one behind you raises AND you win when you hit your set.

[Surfbullet]

FWIW you only have to make up 5BBs (10SB) in the scenario you quoted, which with that flop action isn't actually too unreasonable.

Surf

[whodaman]

this post coupled with the fact that you still have two guys left to act behind you, which are rarely folding a hand you aren't beating, makes this an easy call for me.

[NLSoldier]

I dont have time to read all the replies. But I would play it the same. Betting any non A or K turn(obviously folding to a CR) and then checking through on the river.