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#61
09-14-2005, 12:32 PM
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Re: The lottery is +EV
"be warned that there is quite a bit of legal jurisprudence on lottery agreements among friends/co-workers. there is a chance your agreement might not consitute a contract in the eyes of the court. "
That's why my pool agreement/membership form is 7 pages long. 
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#62
09-14-2005, 12:34 PM
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Re: Results, sort of
If you can beat odds of 175M:1, anything is possible.
For $5M, I'll freeze you until it IS possible. Money in advance, please.
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#63
09-14-2005, 02:07 PM
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Re: The lottery is +EV
Mega Millions up to $250 mill. No one won. Im sure I can scrounge up $10 in change that I find around my room and play. Ill post my numbers here after I get the tickets.
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#64
09-14-2005, 04:24 PM
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Re: Results, sort of
The way I see it is I either I hit the megamillions tonight or I don't. It's a 50/50 shot to win a million bucks and people say it's -EV? Whatever!
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#65
09-14-2005, 09:04 PM
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Re: The lottery is +EV
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Last time Mega Millions was in the $175,000,000 range (about 3 months ago) I did some rough EV calculations taking into consideration a lump sum payout & taxes. Buying a ticket becomes EV neutral when the Jackpot ~$285,000,000. Powerball has fewer numbers and becomes neutral ~$200,000,000. That being said I have 5 mega millions tickets for tonight. [/ QUOTE ] does this include the odds if you hit 5 numbers, 4 numbers, and all the other [censored] you can win with as well? [/ QUOTE ] Yes, it took into consideration all payouts. EV of a $1 mega millions ticket if their is no jackpot payout is about 14 cents. Lump sum payment I used was a very rough estimate however. And 3% state tax (Illinois) was used. So my calculation isn't 100% accurate, but I don't think it's very far off.
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#66
09-14-2005, 09:06 PM
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Re: The lottery is +EV
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Last time Mega Millions was in the $175,000,000 range (about 3 months ago) I did some rough EV calculations taking into consideration a lump sum payout & taxes. Buying a ticket becomes EV neutral when the Jackpot ~$285,000,000. Powerball has fewer numbers and becomes neutral ~$200,000,000. That being said I have 5 mega millions tickets for tonight. [/ QUOTE ] I think this is still too low. You must also factor in that the higher the jackpot the more likely you are to split the pot with one or more other winners. Occasionally you hear about these huge pots being won by a single person, but usually its two or more. -- Scott [/ QUOTE ] How does the EV change when 2 people win $125,000,000 each instead of 1 person winning $250,000,000? The only way your EV would decline is if you pool your money within a group and therfore can not win 100% of the jackpot.
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#67
09-14-2005, 09:36 PM
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Re: The lottery is +EV
i've been playing this damn lotto for 2 weeks. everytime i drive home from school on the freeway, i pass this huge billboard with the jackpots. and everyday it kept getting bigger. i couldn't stand it anymore so i started buying tickets.
$250 million $37 million holy fuking sh1t. a quarter of a fuking billion. i have never asked for anything in my life, just let me hit this damn thing. just once, im not asking for much.
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#68
09-14-2005, 09:46 PM
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Re: The lottery is +EV
[ QUOTE ]
Anybody who takes the annuity option is dumb. The discount rate on the lump sum is something like 4%. [/ QUOTE ] don't be stupid. "A lucky player who wins $200 million, would receive equal payments of approximately $7.6 million a year (before taxes) for the next 26 years or the cash option would result in a prize higher than $100 million before taxes. A retailer who sells a winning ticket worth $200 million would receive a bonus of one million dollars (the highest bonus available) for selling the winning ticket." hmmm $197.6 million or $100 million anyone who takes the lump sum is a dum fuk
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#69
09-14-2005, 10:00 PM
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Re: The lottery is +EV
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Anybody who takes the annuity option is dumb. The discount rate on the lump sum is something like 4%. [/ QUOTE ] don't be stupid. "A lucky player who wins $200 million, would receive equal payments of approximately $7.6 million a year (before taxes) for the next 26 years or the cash option would result in a prize higher than $100 million before taxes. A retailer who sells a winning ticket worth $200 million would receive a bonus of one million dollars (the highest bonus available) for selling the winning ticket." hmmm $197.6 million or $100 million anyone who takes the lump sum is a dum fuk [/ QUOTE ] I really hope your jopking. Do you understand the concepts of Time Value of Money or Return on Investment? If not, how about you send me $10,000, I'll agree to pay you $1050 every year for the next 10 years.
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#70
09-16-2005, 08:13 AM
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Re: The lottery is +EV
[ QUOTE ]
$250 million $37 million i have never asked for anything in my life, [/ QUOTE ] Liar. And what's the 37 million? Did you mean 137M for the cash prize?
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